ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[TheStormExpert]

HWRF puts this on the tip of the Tiburon Peninsula in Haiti at 126 hours heading NNW with a pressure of 947MB. Looks to shoot the gap between Cuba and Haiti.

So the HWRF has trended west some, interesting.

[RL3AO]

This is Joaquin but further south. A very small change in track by day 5 will result in massive differences by day 8. Anyone who is ruling out large areas of land may wish they didn't say that.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFDL animation:

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z Euro in tow..

[SeGaBob]

Euro with a MASSIVE shift east....






Not really, (at least not yet) couldn't resist.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I wouldn't be surprised if the 12z Euro ends up a bit east of the 00z, but I certainly wouldn't call it a trend.

If it does it's over.

What's over?

[tolakram]

GEFS, in the fantasy range, has some members split west into Florida.

[ThetaE]

I wouldn't be surprised if the 12z Euro ends up a bit east of the 00z, but I certainly wouldn't call it a trend.

If it does it's over.

Why? I don't see the logic in that, and it seems especially premature to say after only one run. By that logic, I could just as easily say the far OTS (after the Caribbean) solution was over once the GFS started shifting west again. To me, it seems like it'd be more of a consensus being reached than one model caving to another.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro running

[gatorcane]

GEFS, in the fantasy range, has some members split west into Florida.

http://i.imgur.com/PxarlHW.png

Well that is really interesting and not a good thing to see for us in Florida, this could be the start of the GFS slowly moving towards the Euro bringing in that "thumb" ridge into the SW Atlantic in the wake of the Eastern CONUS cut-off low...

[PTrackerLA]

12z Euro 72 hrs:

[toad strangler]

12z Euro riding into Caribbean further N than previous through 48

[gatorcane]

12z Euro riding into Caribbean further N than previous through 48

it is also a little weaker at the same position it has 97L looking at the 00Z. Euro still showing the WSW movement in the Caribbean.

[stormlover2013]

lol thats not a shift

[Alyono]

looks like weaker ridging and weaker troughing on the EC

[Blown Away]

12z Euro riding into Caribbean further N than previous through 48

Much faster I believe...

[gatorcane]

Euro 72 hours

[gatorcane]

Euro 96 hours:

[toad strangler]

12z Euro riding into Caribbean further N than previous through 48

Much faster I believe...

Yes, I'm think about 12 hours faster than 12z yesterday.

[SouthFLTropics]

At around 96 to 108 hours something is going to have to give on the GFS or Euro. This is where they vastly disagree with each other. Euro is taking a SW dive at 96 hours.