ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[gatorcane]

Euro has a stronger Bermuda High and weaker cutoff low over the Midwest at 96 hours compared to the 12Z GFS.

[ThetaE]

Woah, Euro heading SW at 96 hours. 996 mb.

[DESTRUCTION5]

The Venezuela Dive I'll call it.

[sma10]

At around 96 to 108 hours something is going to have to give on the GFS or Euro. This is where they vastly disagree with each other. Euro is taking a SW dive towards at 96 hours.

Agreed. Earlier there was some speculation that the Euro might trend a little toward the GFS this run, but it sure doesn't look that way. Admittedly, the run has not completed yet, so we'll see.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Turn still happening at 75W though..

[gatorcane]

Euro 120 hours making a gradual turn, looks a little west of the 00Z Euro:

[SouthFLTropics]

And at 120 it appears we are headed WNW to NW. Hard to tell with the 24 hour gaps on the Euro output on Tropical Tidbits.

[gatorcane]

Euro has a stronger Bermuda High than both the GFS and CMC at 120 hours. Also the high is centered more west than the GFS and CMC.

[sma10]

Unless it has something sneaky up its sleeve, it looks like the Euro will appear similar to its 0Z run, only a little faster so should find itself past Cuba by end of run. Maybe in Florida Straits?

[KWT]

Yeah a turn IS going to happen IMO, probably between 74-78W but its how fast the motion and the turn is that will be key as well as what the upper pattern over the NE States/Canada evolves into. Will it get the exit slammed shut this time...

[Blown Away]

More NW at 144 and stronger system than 00z...

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro 144 hours heading towards Jamaica like the 00Z Euro at 967MB (low res) moving NNW:

[gatorcane]

Also the Euro does NOT show the mid-level low that erodes the Bermuda High like the GFS insists will develop. Euro seems to be locking onto a solution through 144 hours at least.

[KWT]

A similar track to the 00z but just faster, which seems reasonable.

Not much given by either models yet. The GFS gets a touch further west before lifting up, the ECM speeds up its transition to the north. Both small nods towards the other model.

Either way ECM is going to have a hard hit on jamaica...967mbs and strengthening nicely.

HWRF a smidge west of its 06z run, nearly misses Haiti now, just a clip, looks like probably a 3/4.

Ah well lets see what the ensembles show!

[TheStormExpert]

Looks slightly faster than the 00z run and the Bermuda High may be a touch weaker.

[SouthFLTropics]

Big differences in the Bermuda High between the GFS and the Euro at 144 hours. Keep an eye on these differences...THEY'RE GONNA BE HUGE!!! (In my best Donald Trump voice).

[srva80]

Jamaica gets hammered

[gatorcane]

Euro 168 hours:

[SouthFLTropics]

Big difference between the 00z Euro and 12z Euro at 168. Ridge is breaking down now instead of building. This is most likely going to be east of the 00z.

[CrazyC83]

There's no way it avoids the east coast in that pattern...the trough is coming in already and the storm is still over Jamaica...