ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nederlander]

Unless that naked swirl builds some convection it will likely spin down. It has a good bit of shear over it. Still betting the MCL builds down to the surface eventually.....MGC

I'm thinking its more mid level dry air than shear. The sat loops show west to east movement north of 99L not out of the north.

I disagree.. It's sitting in about 25-30 kts. of shear on the north side...

[gatorcane]

Lots of shear now but look what awaits off to the WNW once it begins to clear Hispaniola:

[tolakram]

26 frame fast scan loop. Speed it up for full effect.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-61&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=26&mapcolor=black

[tolakram]

LLC is, in my unprofessional opinion, clearly evident.

[ScottNAtlanta]

26 frame fast scan loop. Speed it up for full effect.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-61&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=26&mapcolor=black

Looks like its anticyclone is getting ahead of it.

[MississippiWx]

LLC is, in my unprofessional opinion, clearly evident.

Agree. Fairly obvious where it is located now. The shear it is battling helped to clear up that question. Fairly vigorous low level vort there.

[HurriGuy]

With that zoomed in view, clear WNW movement and yes, LLC looks pretty evident on north side of convection

[Blown Away]

LLC is, in my unprofessional opinion, clearly evident.

Agree, good for us to identify, but not good it's popping out from under the convection due to likely shear...

[JaxGator]

26 frame fast scan loop. Speed it up for full effect.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-61&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=26&mapcolor=black

Looks like its anticyclone is getting ahead of it.

Noticed that too on the shear map. 99L looks to be on the eastern side.

[cycloneye]

Ready to depart.

URNT15 KNHC 241402
AF308 O2EEA INVEST HDOB 03 20160824
135300 1742N 06448W 0113 ///// 0099 +360 +312 000000 000 /// /// 23
135330 1742N 06448W 0113 ///// 0100 +366 +313 000000 000 /// /// 23
135400 1742N 06448W 0113 ///// 0100 +373 +314 000000 000 /// /// 23
135430 1742N 06448W 0113 ///// 0101 +379 +315 000000 000 /// /// 23
135500 1742N 06448W 0113 ///// 0100 +366 +317 000000 000 /// /// 23
135530 1742N 06448W 0113 ///// 0099 +360 +318 000000 000 /// /// 23
135600 1742N 06448W 0112 ///// 0099 +373 +319 000000 000 /// /// 23
135630 1742N 06448W 0112 ///// 0100 +390 +321 000000 000 /// /// 23
135700 1742N 06448W 0112 ///// 0101 +396 +322 000000 000 /// /// 23
135730 1742N 06448W 0110 ///// 0099 +399 +324 000000 000 /// /// 23
135800 1742N 06448W 0112 ///// 0098 +396 +324 000000 000 /// /// 23
135830 1742N 06448W 0112 ///// 0098 +390 +325 000000 000 /// /// 23
135900 1742N 06448W 0112 ///// 0096 +381 +324 000000 000 /// /// 23
135930 1742N 06448W 0112 ///// 0097 +357 +322 000000 000 /// /// 23
140000 1742N 06448W 0112 ///// 0097 +340 +319 000000 000 /// /// 23
140030 1742N 06448W 0112 ///// 0098 +338 +316 000000 000 /// /// 23
140100 1742N 06448W 0112 ///// 0098 +329 +312 000000 000 /// /// 23
140130 1742N 06448W 0112 ///// 0100 +325 +308 000000 000 /// /// 23
140200 1742N 06448W 0113 ///// 0101 +310 +306 000000 000 /// /// 25
140230 1742N 06448W 0113 ///// 0102 +306 +302 000000 000 /// /// 23
$$
;

[tolakram]

LLC is, in my unprofessional opinion, clearly evident.

Agree, good for us to identify, but not good it's popping out from under the convection due to likely shear...

I think this is expected and so far very similar to what the euro has been showing. It will struggle for a day or so, maybe making it to TD or TS status, then conditions rapidly improve.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 241412
AF308 O2EEA INVEST HDOB 04 20160824
140300 1742N 06448W 0113 ///// 0103 +310 +300 000000 000 /// /// 23
140330 1742N 06448W 0113 ///// 0102 +306 +297 000000 000 /// /// 23
140400 1742N 06448W 0113 ///// 0102 +298 +295 000000 000 /// /// 23
140430 1742N 06448W 0113 ///// 0101 +298 +292 000000 000 /// /// 23
140500 1742N 06448W 0114 ///// 0101 +310 +289 000000 000 /// /// 23
140530 1742N 06448W 0114 ///// 0102 +294 +287 000000 000 /// /// 23
140600 1742N 06448W 0113 ///// 0101 +287 +284 000000 000 /// /// 23
140630 1742N 06448W 0112 ///// 0101 +285 +281 000000 000 /// /// 23
140700 1742N 06448W 0113 ///// 0102 +282 +278 000000 000 /// /// 23
140730 1742N 06448W 0113 ///// 0103 +278 +275 000000 000 /// /// 23
140800 1742N 06448W 0112 ///// //// +271 //// 000000 000 /// /// 25
140830 1742N 06448W 0110 ///// 0103 +271 +269 000000 000 /// /// 23
140900 1742N 06448W 0108 ///// 0103 +270 +265 000000 000 /// /// 23
140930 1742N 06448W 0106 ///// 0103 +265 +262 000000 000 /// /// 23
141000 1742N 06449W 0104 ///// 0103 +265 +258 000000 000 /// /// 23
141030 1742N 06449W 0101 00002 0104 +265 +254 000000 000 /// /// 03
141100 1742N 06449W 0097 00004 0104 +262 +249 000000 000 /// /// 03
141130 1742N 06449W 0097 00004 0103 +264 +245 000000 000 /// /// 03
141200 1742N 06449W 0097 00006 0105 +261 +241 000000 000 /// /// 03
141230 1742N 06449W 0097 00006 0105 +265 +238 000000 000 /// /// 03

[tgenius]

IF this does pan out and it gets upgraded this afternoon or evening, the local news will go into hypermode, especially as we get closer to that 3 day window, where the accuracy is pretty solid too..

[AutoPenalti]

Shear is increasing drastically, this is going to struggle.

[centuryv58]

Shear is increasing drastically, this is going to struggle.

Where do you see that???

[HurriGuy]

Not sure why some are surprised by the lack of organization. Models doing a pretty good job in my opinion

[ScottNAtlanta]

Recon is still on the ground from what I can tell. I hope they arent having mechanical problems

[SouthFLTropics]

Shear is increasing drastically, this is going to struggle.

If it can fight off that little sliver of shear today it appears that it has smoother sailing starting tomorrow.

[SoupBone]

Shear is increasing drastically, this is going to struggle.

I don't see much in the way of shear as it moves north of Puerto Rico, according to those charts. What are you seeing?

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/768452648030859264