ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1261 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:39 pm

Over Jamaica on 12z, was just W on 00z...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1262 Postby chris_fit » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:39 pm

Geez where did Jamaica go @ 168 :eek:


Next frame or two will be telling. Does it bend in or out - My thinking is out to sea.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1263 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:39 pm

7 days away long ways to go, we won't know anything till prob Thursdays 00 runs
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1264 Postby srva80 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:40 pm

its a little west @ 168 from 00z
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1265 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:40 pm

Looks like low pressure over Greenland is further west, and subsequently the ridge over the Atlantic is weaker.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1266 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:41 pm

Decent 500mb pattern difference between the 00z and 12z Euro @ 168hrs.

12z :darrow:
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00z :darrow:
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Last edited by TheStormExpert on Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:42 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1267 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:41 pm

This run of the ECMWF might be OTS. Path is there and it is similar to the 12z GFS. Maybe reaching an agreement on steering.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1268 Postby Alyono » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:43 pm

full res EC basically has a repeat of Gilbert for Jamaica
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1269 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:43 pm

Heading north / ne

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1270 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:43 pm

Euro 192 hours:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1271 Postby OntarioEggplant » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:44 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:This run of the ECMWF might be OTS. Path is there and it is similar to the 12z GFS. Maybe reaching an agreement on steering.


That "path OTS" is about to slam shut after 192
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1272 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:44 pm

High pressure looks weaker than 0Z. Should go due north then NE?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1273 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:45 pm

Uh oh, heights rising north of Matthew at 192.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1274 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:45 pm

OntarioEggplant wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:This run of the ECMWF might be OTS. Path is there and it is similar to the 12z GFS. Maybe reaching an agreement on steering.


That "path OTS" is about to slam shut after 192



Let's see if it does... Highs building back
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1275 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:46 pm

12Z JMA:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1276 Postby KWT » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:47 pm

Big change aloft on the ECM and this will follow the CMC/GFS in terms of a near due north track till around 32-35N and then out to sea.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1277 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:47 pm

gatorcane wrote:12Z JMA:



Ouch. Looks like the 0Z Euro, only a little further north.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1278 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:48 pm

Turn to the NW.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1279 Postby OntarioEggplant » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:48 pm

This looks like it's headed straight for Miami
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1280 Postby wxmann_91 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:49 pm

Hr 216: bends back west around Cuba just like earlier runs. Gets dangerously close to FL.
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