ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 86.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES

[Alyono]

aren't the recon fixes closer to a 300 heading?

And the track. That track is so far south of the TVCN as well as the ensemble probability envelope

Do not rule out a hurricane in the BOC

[tarheelprogrammer]

aren't the recon fixes closer to a 300 heading?

And the track. That track is so far south of the TVCN as well as the ensemble probability envelope

Do not rule out a hurricane in the BOC

Where does the ridge start affecting this thing?

[mobilebay]

aren't the recon fixes closer to a 300 heading?

And the track. That track is so far south of the TVCN as well as the ensemble probability envelope

Do not rule out a hurricane in the BOC

Where does the ridge start affecting this thing?

As usual lets act like this more northerly movement isn't happening

[tolakram]

...NOAA PLANE FINDS THAT EARL IS NOW A HURRICANE...

[AdamFirst]

000
WTNT65 KNHC 032057
TCUAT5

HURRICANE EARL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
400 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016

...NOAA PLANE FINDS THAT EARL IS NOW A HURRICANE...

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft just reached Earl and measured
maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h), indicating that Earl
is now a hurricane.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 86.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Avila

[tolakram]

Look at the steering levels, this can't go north very far though certainly it can wobble around, especially white strengthening.

[Hammy]

They really should've just waited and issued the advisory a few minutes late rather than issuing it 20 minutes early and having to update it. Any chance they'll issue a special advisory at 8 with possible updates to the forecast especially if this further intensifies before then?

As an aside why are the official pressures higher than the measurements?

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/NOAA_HurrHunter/status/760941436141498370

[tarheelprogrammer]

aren't the recon fixes closer to a 300 heading?

And the track. That track is so far south of the TVCN as well as the ensemble probability envelope

Do not rule out a hurricane in the BOC

Where does the ridge start affecting this thing?

As usual lets act like this more northerly movement isn't happening

I was just asking when is this storm going to start feeling the ridge and turn more W.

[PTrackerLA]

So he made it after all, congrats Earl! It's hard to believe Sandy was the last hurricane in the Caribbean, just wow. We should be on our toes the rest of this season.

[Yellow Evan]

They really should've just waited and issued the advisory a few minutes late rather than issuing it 20 minutes early and having to update it. Any chance they'll issue a special advisory at 8 with possible updates to the forecast especially if this further intensifies before then?

Advisories take more time to write than that, and there's no need for a special unless this gets to 80 knots.

[Bocadude85]

Nice blow up of convection right over the center.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-85&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=725&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir5.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

[AJC3]

http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/250-km-radar-loop

Thank you

Often times, as in this case, you can use Brian McNoldy's web site that creates long radar loops. You get more data, and it helps reduce the possibility of their server that hosts the web page getting overloaded from hits.

Site...
http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/radar/
Belize long range...
http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/ ... Belize.gif
Belize short range...
http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/ ... e_zoom.gif

[Kazmit]

Woo hoo! Earl is finally a category 1 hurricane with winds of 75 mph. The real question is if Earl will strengthen even more before landfall. Belize especially needs to watch out for this one.

[gatorcane]

One thing worth mentioning that NHC mentions in the latest advisory is that Earl has become a large hurricane. Indeed looking at the wide view of the Western Caribbean it has gotten quite large indeed....

[Nimbus]

Belize City in Earl's crosshairs... Population @55,000...

Current track is just north of Belize so the strongest winds will be north of the city in the mangroves.
Latest burst of convection will continue to drop the surface pressure a little more so hopefully it will track 10 or 20 miles further north..

[latitude_20]

Anyone suspect they're going to have to adjust that forecast track?

[MaineWeatherNut]

I have done a short write up on Hurricane Earl this evening...

http://theweatherwatch.org/hurricane-ea ... -3rd-2016/

Mods: I got permission several years ago to post links to blog posts on my blog. Since that time there hasn't been much to post about but this year I am back... Any concerns or comments please feel free to send me a message! Thanks!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

It was a pretty looking strong tropical storm, quite a large system.