ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1281 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:49 pm

12Z Euro 216 hours: turning back WNW/NW: :eek:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1282 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:49 pm

Uh oh hour 240 may not be pretty for South Florida looking at the setup...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1283 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:50 pm

Ridge builds back in...Hello South Florida!!!

Worse is the fact that it's probably going to be an East Coast rider with the trough moving in from the Midwest.
Last edited by SouthFLTropics on Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1284 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:50 pm

Wow. 12Z JMA and Euro look identical. Ridge pushes 97L back toward the WNW. Looks like the difference between 0Z and 12Z is the high pressure over the Carolinas (which trapped it over Cuba). This might be a SE Florida landfall or close to it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1285 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:50 pm

10 days away........long ways to go my friends
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1286 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:50 pm

KWT wrote:Big change aloft on the ECM and this will follow the CMC/GFS in terms of a near due north track till around 32-35N and then out to sea.


Yup, big synoptic difference this run, maybe won't turn by 35N...Looks a lot different
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1287 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:51 pm

Eastern Cuba barely does a thing to disrupt this thing and look how strong at 216 hours:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1288 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:51 pm

And this is why people saying ots before the run is complete should stop
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1289 Postby cajungal » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:51 pm

That is the strangest track I ever seen.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1290 Postby centuryv58 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:51 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:Uh oh hour 240 may not be pretty for South Florida looking at the setup...

That is for DAMN sure.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1291 Postby KWT » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:51 pm

Well looks like I was wrong with the ECM and its straight north track!

Anyway I think most models are in the same ballpark now in terms of the track of West till 75W, then north through either Haiti or Cuba. Past that point, that is when we have the large differences.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1292 Postby La Sirena » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:51 pm

gatorcane wrote:12Z Euro 216 hours: turning back WNW/NW: :eek:

Image

Surely that turn is fantasy....right? :eek: What a crazy track these models got going on lol.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1293 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:52 pm

Yep, Upper Midwest trough couldn't come soon enough on the 12z Euro run.

12z :darrow:
Image

00z :darrow:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1294 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:53 pm

That looks so much like 1950's Hurricane King...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1295 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:54 pm

Yikes! everyone(including me) was so focused on the East Coast that we forgot about Florida. Even though it's just one run, I can totally see this happening
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1296 Postby Alyono » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:54 pm

wobbles back right between hours 204 and 216

before it wobbles back left
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1297 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:56 pm

12z Euro @ 240hrs. Man I hope this does not verify! :double:

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Last edited by TheStormExpert on Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1298 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:57 pm

Hour 240...OUCH!!! :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1299 Postby sma10 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:57 pm

Not to be flippant or dismissive, but we all know that 10 day bulls-eyes never become realized. Matthew may very well do something similar to the general idea of the Euro but it's always a bit "off" somewhere along the line.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1300 Postby caneseddy » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:57 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:That looks so much like 1950's Hurricane King...


I'm actually thinking more of a Cleo type path
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