ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[centuryv58]

Bang.

[ronyan]

Oh My...good thing we're at 10 days out.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro at 240 hours is that a CAT 4 on the high-res?:

[BensonTCwatcher]

That upper Midwest trough kind of splits and leave a normal trough behind but not as strong.

[ThetaE]

938 mb

[stormlover2013]

over a week a way.....models usually aren't consistent till about 4 days out

[HurricaneFrances04]

And here come the Florida guys.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Eastern Cuba barely does a thing to disrupt this thing and look how strong at 216 hours:

See, that's what I'm having a hard time buying. It's gotta be in a really favorable position to maintain and restrengthen itself after going through Cuba.

[OntarioEggplant]

So the Euro both shifts west and threatens South Florida. Meanwhile it will very likely be on the far right side of its ensembles again.

[sma10]

That looks so much like 1950's Hurricane King...

I'm actually thinking more of a Cleo type path

Lol - yeah only Cleo and King were not 938mb. Is 938 the true measure or is it different in hi-res?

[xcool22]

Eastern Cuba barely does a thing to disrupt this thing and look how strong at 216 hours:

See, that's what I'm having a hard time buying. It's gotta be in a really favorable position to maintain and restrengthen itself after going through Cuba.

me too

[SeGaBob]

Interesting run for sure.

[OntarioEggplant]

Interestingly enough, there is now enough spread in the 12Z GFS ensembles to support the 12Z Euro op path.

[gatorcane]

Wow:

[Alyono]

very narrow miss of Miami with a pressure of 930mb

[TheStormExpert]

500mb pattern differences between the 12z Euro run and 00z run @ 240hrs.

12z


00z

[OntarioEggplant]

That looks so much like 1950's Hurricane King...

I'm actually thinking more of a Cleo type path

Lol - yeah only Cleo and King were not 938mb. Is 938 the true measure or is it different in hi-res?

Hi res is likely lower

[TheStormExpert]

So the Euro both shifts west and threatens South Florida. Meanwhile it will very likely be on the far right side of its ensembles again.

No the 12z Euro shifted East some compared to it's 00z run.

[stormlover2013]

lets see what the ensembles show

[gatorcane]

very narrow miss of Miami with a pressure of 930mb

Looks like Palm Beach would take a direct hit if it went out farther. Only silver lining is that how often does a 10-day Euro forecast verify?

But the Euro idea of that thumb ridge building back in over the SW Atlantic is definitely a possibility. The JMA and NASA models show this and there are a few GFS ensembles that are bending the system back west into Florida too.