ATL: HERMINE - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1321 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Aug 22, 2016 12:10 pm

HWRF has it as a minor hurricane for a short period of time while it is northeast of PR at 48 hours. After that it seems to back off some.

EDIT - wasn't a hurricane...I was looking at 850MB winds. Regardless, a decent TS.
Last edited by SouthFLTropics on Mon Aug 22, 2016 12:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6684
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1322 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Aug 22, 2016 12:12 pm

Just curious, what model did the best job seeing the recent flood event in LA. ?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1323 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Aug 22, 2016 12:13 pm

HWRF at 69 hours has it more NE of the previous run and is deepening...Waiting to see if it gets trapped and pushed west.
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
windnrain
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 670
Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:19 pm
Location: Baton Rouge

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1324 Postby windnrain » Mon Aug 22, 2016 12:15 pm

Euro and CMC did well with the Louisiana flooding.
0 likes   
Top
WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1325 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Aug 22, 2016 12:18 pm

SFLcane wrote:Nogaps- nada but who cares :cheesy:


Alright so at least we can't blame the GFS as the only one unable to make up its mind.

It is just me or has the Ukmet been the most consistent of the models here?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
TexWx
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 370
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 11:00 pm
Location: Pearland, Texas
Contact:
Contact TexWx

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1326 Postby TexWx » Mon Aug 22, 2016 12:19 pm

Siker wrote:UKMET with extensive 594dm heights to the north:

Image



What is the 1012 Low in the gulf, 99L?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7351
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1327 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Aug 22, 2016 12:24 pm

TexWx wrote:
Siker wrote:UKMET with extensive 594dm heights to the north:

Image



What is the 1012 Low in the gulf, 99L?



Nope, thats a separate system. 99L is in the Bahamas
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1328 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Aug 22, 2016 12:24 pm

At hour 84 HWRF's got nothing just east of the central Bahamas. The vort is there but there is no development. Perhaps the MJO just is just that unfavorable right now.

SFT
Last edited by SouthFLTropics on Mon Aug 22, 2016 12:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
User avatar
Siker
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 904
Age: 28
Joined: Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:36 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1329 Postby Siker » Mon Aug 22, 2016 12:26 pm

TexWx wrote:
Siker wrote:UKMET with extensive 594dm heights to the north:

Image



What is the 1012 Low in the gulf, 99L?


Nope, 99L is that 1009mb low off Florida (actually 996mb but the map is low resolution). That random Gulf low looks to be some energy that the UKMET blows in from the east, nothing noteworthy.
0 likes   
Top
WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1330 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Aug 22, 2016 12:29 pm

Euro starts in about 25 minutes...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
jason1912
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 85
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2016 8:24 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1331 Postby jason1912 » Mon Aug 22, 2016 12:29 pm

 https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/767774705059258368


2 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10147
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1332 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 22, 2016 12:30 pm

Alyono wrote:convectionless at 102 hours

6Z NAVGEM may have been right


All the convection we see now, was that predicted?
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1333 Postby Alyono » Mon Aug 22, 2016 12:31 pm

Hwrf is run off of mu. Not surprised no development
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7351
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1334 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Aug 22, 2016 12:32 pm

This may be one of these systems where the models have a good idea for track but no clue on intensity

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service
0 likes   
Top
SeGaBob

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1335 Postby SeGaBob » Mon Aug 22, 2016 12:33 pm

Probably no development just to mess with us. :)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1336 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Aug 22, 2016 12:33 pm

HWRF looks to pull a cyclonic loop between 84 and 96 hours while starting to develop. Vort has looked good all along but nothing was showing at the surface again until 96 hours.
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1337 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Aug 22, 2016 12:40 pm

HWRF - Headed north at 105 hours along 73W as a 45mph TS.
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
User avatar
tarheelprogrammer
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1793
Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:25 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC area (Garner, NC)

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1338 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Mon Aug 22, 2016 12:46 pm

HWRF stronger it appears this run.
0 likes   
My posts are not official forecasts. They are just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1339 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Aug 22, 2016 12:51 pm

12z Euro initialized.

Image

Image
0 likes   
Top
BigB0882
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2284
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 12:08 am
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Contact:
Contact BigB0882

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1340 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Aug 22, 2016 12:54 pm

Is the Euro initializing this as large as it actually is? Or does that not matter?

Edit: It looks larger on the 850 vorticity map.
Last edited by BigB0882 on Mon Aug 22, 2016 12:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2016”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests