ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ronyan]

For those new to the board, In the past we have all listened to Jamaica radio as hurricanes were hitting the island. http://www.jamaicaradio.net/power-106/ Here is the link to keep if that should happen. They are very mellow and never get excited. But they have people calling in to the station from all over the island during storms reporting damage etc. Just threw this out for those who would be interested should Matthew decide to pay them a visit.

Nice, thanks for this link. I didn't realize it would be in English.

[bqknight]

For those new to the board, In the past we have all listened to Jamaica radio as hurricanes were hitting the island. http://www.jamaicaradio.net/power-106/ Here is the link to keep if that should happen. They are very mellow and never get excited. But they have people calling in to the station from all over the island during storms reporting damage etc. Just threw this out for those who would be interested should Matthew decide to pay them a visit.

Nice, thanks for this link. I didn't realize it would be in English.

Jamaican's speak English...

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/781550617332330497




Sorry if already posted

[jdjaguar]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/781550617332330497




Sorry if already posted

I think he meant lowest?

[Michele B]

I sure hope this turns out to be a "fish storm" because it's going to be a monster.

It can't be a fish storm. It already impacted the Lesser Antilles and is going to hit land somewhere in the Caribbean, regardless of where it goes. A fish storm is one that doesn't impact land (at least that's how I define it).

Yes, I meant after it makes it's northward turn....didn't want it to impact Bermuda or CONUS

[GeneratorPower]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/781550617332330497

Sorry if already posted

I think he meant lowest?

No, he means highest. It's unusual to have strong winds, to hurricane force, with such a high pressure. You'd expect the pressure to be lower.

[ronyan]

For those new to the board, In the past we have all listened to Jamaica radio as hurricanes were hitting the island. http://www.jamaicaradio.net/power-106/ Here is the link to keep if that should happen. They are very mellow and never get excited. But they have people calling in to the station from all over the island during storms reporting damage etc. Just threw this out for those who would be interested should Matthew decide to pay them a visit.

Nice, thanks for this link. I didn't realize it would be in English.

Jamaican's speak English...

Great, didn't remember that.

[p1nheadlarry]

For those new to the board, In the past we have all listened to Jamaica radio as hurricanes were hitting the island. http://www.jamaicaradio.net/power-106/ Here is the link to keep if that should happen. They are very mellow and never get excited. But they have people calling in to the station from all over the island during storms reporting damage etc. Just threw this out for those who would be interested should Matthew decide to pay them a visit.

Nice, thanks for this link. I didn't realize it would be in English.

Bob Marley did a pretty decent job with it

[Jimsot]

So Matthew will get 'more bang for the buck' wind wise with further pressure falls as well or will this even out somehow to historic norms?

[GCANE]

Just as I mentioned this morning the ULL north of Hispaniola filled in and the associated shortwave trough (aka PV anomaly) has cleared out ahead of Matthew.

Next hurdle is the longwave trough digging in currently west of Jamaica.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[jdjaguar]

I think he meant lowest?

No, he means highest. It's unusual to have strong winds, to hurricane force, with such a high pressure. You'd expect the pressure to be lower.

Thanks for the clarification.
its been my experience that TS hit hurricane status around 995mb then CAT2 around 980 or so. Gonna go refresh my SS scale memory.

[Hammy]

Just as I mentioned this morning the ULL north of Hispaniola filled in and the associated shortwave trough (aka PV anomaly) has cleared out ahead of Matthew.

Next hurdle is the longwave trough digging in currently west of Jamaica.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Isn't that trough what's supposed to steer it north to start with?

[SouthDadeFish]

The low-level structure has really improved today, although it was still quite asymmetric at the time of this pass:

[gatorcane]

Looking good and also losing might be starting to lose a little latitude, tough to tell just from SAT imagery:

[cycloneye]

Peak intensity is up to 90kts at 5 PM.

72H 02/1800Z 15.7N 75.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 18.6N 75.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

[hipshot]

Peak intensity is up to 90kts at 5 PM.

72H 02/1800Z 15.7N 75.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 18.6N 75.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

It sure seems to be moving wsw on radar but my eyes aren't what they used to be.

[wxman57]

Peak intensity is up to 90kts at 5 PM.

72H 02/1800Z 15.7N 75.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 18.6N 75.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

It sure seems to be moving wsw on radar but my eyes aren't what they used to be.

Your eyes are deceiving you. Squalls have been building southwestward over the center, making it look like SW motion. It's moving to the west.

[emeraldislenc]

The 5 pm advisory will be interesting

[ronyan]

The 5 pm advisory will be interesting

Go check, it is up already.

[Alyono]

Peak intensity is up to 90kts at 5 PM.

72H 02/1800Z 15.7N 75.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 18.6N 75.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

laughably too low.

You're telling me that over waters with heat content higher than the Philippine Sea with less than 10 kts of shear, this is not going to rapidly intensify?

Only way that happens is if the shear forecasts are wrong. That is possible as they have already been wrong once. But if the shear decreases as NHC says, this will explode