ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 040148
AF301 0705A EARL HDOB 36 20160804
013800 1800N 08650W 6965 03137 //// +086 //// 129062 064 041 003 01
013830 1758N 08651W 6968 03131 //// +091 //// 128060 063 043 004 01
013900 1757N 08652W 6967 03129 0018 +102 //// 127060 061 047 007 01
013930 1756N 08653W 6973 03121 0035 +103 +103 123059 061 047 013 00
014000 1754N 08655W 6970 03125 0048 +097 +097 127064 066 049 014 03
014030 1753N 08656W 6963 03127 0035 +096 +096 126065 068 048 009 00
014100 1752N 08657W 6970 03118 0013 +096 +096 122060 062 047 006 00
014130 1751N 08659W 6967 03119 0013 +100 +100 121064 065 048 007 03
014200 1749N 08700W 6968 03114 0014 +095 //// 122061 065 044 006 01
014230 1748N 08702W 6965 03115 //// +094 //// 119056 061 044 002 01
014300 1747N 08703W 6966 03111 9985 +104 +084 115057 058 046 001 00
014330 1745N 08704W 6970 03103 9984 +102 +083 115060 061 046 002 03
014400 1744N 08706W 6966 03103 9981 +098 +097 117061 061 044 002 01
014430 1743N 08707W 6967 03098 9974 +101 +097 117061 062 046 002 01
014500 1741N 08709W 6967 03093 9969 +102 +096 116062 062 046 002 00
014530 1740N 08710W 6967 03088 9965 +101 +092 116062 063 047 001 00
014600 1739N 08711W 6963 03088 9960 +102 +091 113061 062 045 001 00
014630 1737N 08713W 6969 03076 9947 +101 +098 113062 063 043 001 05
014700 1736N 08714W 6967 03071 9944 +102 +098 110063 064 045 002 01
014730 1734N 08715W 6963 03068 //// +104 //// 108065 066 045 001 01
$$
;

[Hammy]

recon finding a lot of steady hurricane force winds this pass in the NE quad nearly 2 whole sets of data. next set will be center pass.. 68kt well away from center.

64kt at 994mb pressures will probably be down to 980 FL

Why are the surface winds coming back so much weaker than flight-level?

[GLF4drvr]

On the ground in San Pedro, Ambergris Caye, we have 25G30kts from the NNE, very light drizzle, with some patches of clear sky visible above and to the west. Very dark to the east, but Im unable to define any cloud form or increase in wave height since sunset.

[BZSTORM]

local radio announced short time ago that sections of Ambergris Caye (San Pedro) are now without electricity, friend not far from downtown San Pedro said the seafront businesses were taking pounding already hour ago from surf.
light rain occurring on Placencia Peninsula after an hour lull, animals and insects are doing their normal thing but then we are far from the brunt of the storm.

[Alyono]

looks like a secondary wind max is present based upon recon

[bg1]

had this had 12 to 24 more hours it would likely have been a different story..

Isn't that usually the case with landfalling storms in this section of the Caribbean? Richard '10, Harvey '11, and Ernesto '12 are examples.

[Aric Dunn]

pressure 981mb

[bg1]

looks like a secondary wind max is present based upon recon

This means it's still growing in size, right?

[Alyono]

looks like a secondary wind max is present based upon recon

This means it's still growing in size, right?

it means there is a secondary eyewall. Explains why despite the falling pressure, this only has marginal hurricane force winds.

If it were not upgraded this afternoon, I am not sure it would have been upgraded tonight

[Aric Dunn]

going to deepen right to landfall. icyclone guys might actually have a little fun.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like a secondary wind max is present based upon recon

This means it's still growing in size, right?

it means there is a secondary eyewall. Explains why despite the falling pressure, this only has marginal hurricane force winds.

If it were not upgraded this afternoon, I am not sure it would have been upgraded tonight

not sure about the secondary eyewall more than if you watch radar when they flew threw the N quad there was a void in the convection or an open part to the eyewall. but with convection farther away building..

with this last recon mission there were many many obs to support an upgrade.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 040158
AF301 0705A EARL HDOB 37 20160804
014800 1733N 08716W 6963 03060 9922 +105 +096 105063 066 046 002 00
014830 1731N 08718W 6965 03048 9909 +108 +102 103063 064 051 001 00
014900 1730N 08719W 6970 03034 9885 +119 +100 099062 063 051 001 00
014930 1728N 08720W 6965 03026 9861 +126 +110 093054 062 052 003 00
015000 1726N 08721W 6970 03012 9840 +133 +127 091046 049 052 003 03
015030 1724N 08721W 6970 03004 9833 +133 +128 095037 044 049 005 03
015100 1723N 08721W 6968 03001 9827 +134 +118 098029 033 028 001 00
015130 1721N 08721W 6966 02999 9827 +129 +121 095019 027 008 001 00
015200 1719N 08721W 6963 03003 9830 +127 +124 108006 014 014 002 01
015230 1717N 08721W 6965 03003 9829 +132 +123 249007 009 014 002 03
015300 1716N 08721W 6973 03001 9835 +132 +121 249014 015 014 002 03
015330 1714N 08721W 6963 03018 9833 +139 +112 257014 014 /// /// 03
015400 1714N 08723W 6970 03012 9829 +146 +091 282013 015 /// /// 03
015430 1715N 08724W 6967 03012 9819 +152 +102 324007 011 015 002 00
015500 1716N 08726W 6969 03009 9815 +156 +094 004011 016 009 002 00
015530 1718N 08727W 6969 03009 9816 +159 +083 021023 027 011 001 00
015600 1719N 08728W 6967 03014 9821 +156 +089 022032 034 016 000 03
015630 1720N 08729W 6967 03015 9825 +151 +092 030037 039 043 005 00
015700 1721N 08730W 6963 03026 9836 +146 +092 039041 043 045 003 00
015730 1723N 08731W 6971 03021 9852 +139 +089 042046 047 040 001 00
$$
;

URNT15 KNHC 040208
AF301 0705A EARL HDOB 38 20160804
015800 1724N 08733W 6966 03034 9872 +127 +092 048051 052 041 001 00
015830 1725N 08734W 6967 03040 9891 +117 +100 046055 055 042 002 00
015900 1727N 08735W 6968 03045 9898 +111 +108 046053 054 042 002 01
015930 1728N 08736W 6966 03054 //// +107 //// 048053 054 041 001 01
020000 1729N 08737W 6968 03058 //// +100 //// 051056 057 040 003 01
020030 1730N 08738W 6967 03063 9950 +103 //// 053059 061 041 007 01
020100 1732N 08740W 6964 03076 9957 +113 +113 053054 060 046 011 00
020130 1733N 08741W 6971 03072 9969 +110 +110 059055 056 052 009 03
020200 1735N 08742W 6969 03080 9979 +110 +110 060060 065 051 010 03
020230 1736N 08743W 6970 03085 9953 +112 +105 057059 064 050 003 00
020300 1737N 08744W 6970 03092 9958 +113 +085 057065 066 054 001 00
020330 1739N 08746W 6967 03098 9969 +107 +091 057061 065 054 000 00
020400 1740N 08747W 6958 03114 0002 +110 //// 059060 063 046 006 01
020430 1741N 08748W 6973 03100 9995 +103 +103 061059 060 044 010 00
020500 1743N 08749W 6961 03119 0011 +108 +108 065057 057 044 006 00
020530 1744N 08751W 6983 03097 0018 +109 +109 064057 058 043 007 03
020600 1746N 08752W 6966 03120 0012 +105 //// 066059 059 042 007 05
020630 1747N 08753W 6969 03120 0010 +101 //// 066057 059 042 005 01
020700 1748N 08754W 6969 03124 0023 +100 //// 067055 056 041 004 01
020730 1750N 08756W 6964 03131 0044 +101 +101 067060 064 040 007 00
$$
;

[Hammy]

had this had 12 to 24 more hours it would likely have been a different story..

Isn't that usually the case with landfalling storms in this section of the Caribbean? Richard '10, Harvey '11, and Ernesto '12 are examples.

If I remember correctly, Harvey was hit with northerly shear as it was making landfall.
http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/tc11/ATL/08L.H ... .100pc.jpg

I think wind-wise, Earl is probably holding steady if not weakening despite the pressure dropping.

looks like a secondary wind max is present based upon recon

This means it's still growing in size, right?

it means there is a secondary eyewall. Explains why despite the falling pressure, this only has marginal hurricane force winds.

If it were not upgraded this afternoon, I am not sure it would have been upgraded tonight

Is this likely resulting from the dry air you mentioned earlier? Seems odd to have an actual ERC at this low of an intensity.

[Aric Dunn]

had this had 12 to 24 more hours it would likely have been a different story..

Isn't that usually the case with landfalling storms in this section of the Caribbean? Richard '10, Harvey '11, and Ernesto '12 are examples.

If I remember correctly, Harvey was hit with northerly shear as it was making landfall.
http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/tc11/ATL/08L.H ... .100pc.jpg

I think wind-wise, Earl is probably holding steady if not weakening despite the pressure dropping.

the difference. this ran out of room the others ran into hostile environments.

also the pressure is dropping because convection is increasing that not weakening..

[Aric Dunn]

nice thought recon was going to leave.. but they dropped south and are going to do a SW to NE pass this will likely be the last recon pass. looks like it will be at its strongest.

also hurricane conditions now spreading over land per recon. sfmr although some bogus readings due to likely land influences picking up to hurricane force.

[Hammy]

Isn't that usually the case with landfalling storms in this section of the Caribbean? Richard '10, Harvey '11, and Ernesto '12 are examples.

If I remember correctly, Harvey was hit with northerly shear as it was making landfall.
http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/tc11/ATL/08L.H ... .100pc.jpg

I think wind-wise, Earl is probably holding steady if not weakening despite the pressure dropping.

the difference. this ran out of room the others ran into hostile environments.

also the pressure is dropping because convection is increasing that not weakening..

Despite the pressure drop Earl seems to be struggling to form a solid inner core similarly to many of 2012's storms, which is certainly good news for Belize and Mexico.

[Aric Dunn]

tightening eyewall and deepening convection.. last pass should be best till landfall.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 040218
AF301 0705A EARL HDOB 39 20160804
020800 1751N 08757W 6967 03132 0054 +097 +097 066063 065 040 010 00
020830 1753N 08758W 6963 03138 0053 +094 //// 068051 059 065 007 05
020900 1754N 08759W 6970 03136 //// +076 //// 068052 053 /// /// 05
020930 1755N 08801W 6960 03150 //// +070 //// 066053 054 /// /// 05
021000 1754N 08803W 6965 03144 //// +069 //// 060051 053 /// /// 05
021030 1752N 08803W 6975 03126 0061 +093 //// 061051 053 050 011 05
021100 1750N 08803W 6966 03139 0059 +098 //// 060052 053 052 007 01
021130 1748N 08803W 6965 03137 0051 +101 +101 057055 057 037 008 00
021200 1746N 08803W 6969 03131 0054 +100 +100 056055 055 037 016 00
021230 1744N 08803W 6972 03125 0051 +102 +102 053052 054 042 020 00
021300 1742N 08803W 6965 03131 0051 +100 +100 043053 055 043 020 03
021330 1740N 08804W 6967 03127 0050 +101 +101 039053 055 041 015 00
021400 1738N 08804W 6969 03124 0047 +098 //// 043049 051 081 011 05
021430 1736N 08804W 6968 03122 0042 +085 //// 039051 051 061 001 05
021500 1734N 08804W 6967 03124 0037 +089 //// 033050 051 066 003 05
021530 1732N 08804W 6967 03121 0035 +098 //// 031052 053 061 008 01
021600 1729N 08805W 6965 03122 //// +079 //// 027053 055 082 006 05
021630 1727N 08805W 6973 03111 0038 +080 //// 025054 054 054 010 05
021700 1725N 08805W 6965 03121 0035 +098 //// 025054 055 051 012 05
021730 1723N 08805W 6966 03117 0029 +103 +103 017053 055 044 015 00
$$
;

81 and 82 likely in error. 66 kt SFMR seems reasonable.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 9:17pm CDT:

[Chris_in_Tampa]

81 and 82 likely in error. 66 kt SFMR seems reasonable.

They were noted as suspect, likely automatically, because they were over land. There is a lot of islands and shallow areas there, so there might be a lot of that upcoming, including instances perhaps where something is not noted as being suspect.