ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Ivanhater]

Most Euro Ensembles in the Gulf

[PTrackerLA]

Yikes at the Euro ensembles! Most in the Gulf and showing major hurricanes...

[gatorcane]

18Z NAM more south and west of 12Z run:

[SeGaBob]

Yikes at the Euro ensembles! Most in the Gulf and showing major hurricanes...

How accurate are ensembles?

[hurrtracker79]

12Z EURO control has Ivan all over again into the FL panhandle. Pressure 951mb

[OntarioEggplant]

So with the group of GFS ensembles in the Gulf now, plus the Euro op and Euro ensembles track... I feel like we can start leaning towards the slower Euro solution and the further west track

[Bocadude85]

18z Model Guidance:

12z GEFS Ensembles:

12z GEPS Ensembles:

Looks like models are shifting more towards Jamaica and Cuba now, seems like the west trend is continuing.

[Alyono]

So with the group of GFS ensembles in the Gulf now, plus the Euro op and Euro ensembles track... I feel like we can start leaning towards the slower Euro solution and the further west track

Not a single MU ensemble is in the Gulf. The MU ensemble has a ZERO percent chance of this moving into the Gulf

Of course, that shows the MU ensemble improperly captures the range of possible outcomes

[Ken711]

So with the group of GFS ensembles in the Gulf now, plus the Euro op and Euro ensembles track... I feel like we can start leaning towards the slower Euro solution and the further west track

It'll change in a few more model runs I bet. I'm still thinking a track up the eastern seaboard and NC/VA landfall.

Disclaimer:
My posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be treated as such. They are of my opinion and current knowledge and should NOT be used as an official forecast. For official information, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

[ConvergenceZone]

The next few model runs are going to be Epic. We will find out if the Hype is Real

[gatorcane]

12Z NASA model is WAY west out through 120 hours that the 12Z run goes out to with a turn to the NW or N that seems to happen at 120 hours.

[WeatherEmperor]

18z Gfs rolls in less than 10 minutes folks. Get ready...


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[KWT]

Individual model runs are obviously fluctuating but it is clear that the trend is to go further west before any bend to the NW or N.

[OntarioEggplant]

So with the group of GFS ensembles in the Gulf now, plus the Euro op and Euro ensembles track... I feel like we can start leaning towards the slower Euro solution and the further west track

Not a single MU ensemble is in the Gulf. The MU ensemble has a ZERO percent chance of this moving into the Gulf

Of course, that shows the MU ensemble improperly captures the range of possible outcomes

What are you talking about? The 12Z ensembles clearly show some members pulling a Jeanne with the system and then moving it westward across FL into the GOM

[Alyono]

that's beyond 10 days. It is also one member. A 5% chance of moving into the Gulf beyond 10 days

[Alyono]

As for the Canadian ensembles, BE CAREFUL. The deterministic CMC forms a SECOND tropical storm in the Gulf. That signal may be contaminated by that possible genesis unless you use track specific plots

The actual 10 day probability of this moving into the Gulf (and it's only eastern Gulf) from the CMC is about 20-25%

[tolakram]

18Z GFS running.

[tolakram]

General trend seems to be more north and weaker.

[Alyono]

north and stronger so far through 54 hours

[Big O]

Beyond Day 10, at least 5 members show 97L moving into western or southern GOM. This might explain one of the analog storms JB is looking at: Hurricane Inez (1966). While this is a low probability outcome, it is not out of the realm of possibility; however, this must be taken with a scoop of salt since it is beyond Day 10.