ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[floridasun78]

Anyone down to play?

[img]/img]

Absolutely awesome!!! I'll take E of Bermuda!!!

i take models are trending west

[pcolaman]

Looks like Matthew is loosing latitude now

[robbielyn]

I'll take "Matthew is struggling from the shear"

[sma10]

Anyone down to play?

LOL the Bingo board is great. Some of the all-time greatest tropes are in there. My favorite is the one about the G-IV mission. It always seems to me that the tracks after the digested information still look pretty much the same.

Oh, and you left out the phoniest, cheesiest one of all: the "concern" troll. As in, "This latest model run really now has me concerned about [fill in the blank]

[SapphireSea]

Anyone down to play?

LOL the Bingo board is great. Some of the all-time greatest tropes are in there. My favorite is the one about the G-IV mission. It always seems to me that the tracks after the digested information still look pretty much the same.

Where is the space for crazy shear tearing it apart or the space for "is that an eye?". How about the drinking game. Take 1 shot for every time someone says the models trended west. 1 shot for each S.FL mention. 1 shot for DMAX. 1 shot for the phrase "ridge building" or "stronger ridge than anticipated".

Games aside it's a complicated setup, but if one looks at the weather pattern and time of year a stall and sharp recurve will be the favored solution,. It's just how soon it will happen and whether any collateral land will feel the impacts. Like Bermuda the stronger this gets, a miss 150 miles east of FL would bring partly sunny skies and somewhat of a breeze. So stronger and east would be best for the US not so much for the Bahamas however. Keep an eye out for it.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Anyone down to play?

"US Major Hurricane Drought" for 300 alex lol

[robbielyn]

climatology says either east of florida or panhandle and points west according to previous storm tracks. so maybe it will be a close call and there is always a first time for everything but gfs and euro wants to keep this just off the coast of fl hence off the peninsula in agreement of climatology. when it was a pouch 4, I said either miami or LA. LA is climo correct miami isn't. so if it goes in the gulf, I still say LA. If it stays in the atlantic I say obx more likely than miami. But nothing is off the table I just personally think it will stay off the peninsula albeit barely. just voicing my opinion please take with grain of salt. listen to nhc and mets here or local

[tolakram]

[RL3AO]

I was doubting myself earlier but Im fairly happy with my hurricane today and major by tomorrow night prediction.

[tolakram]

IR loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-68&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=gray&map=county

[NDG]

Buoy 42059's pictures are incredible, showing those 30 foot waves that look like hills.

[NDG]

It looks like it has developed a partial closed eye.

[abajan]

http://i.imgur.com/UxmLDC2.png

That is definitely an intensifying hurricane and I would't be surprised one bit if it were to bomb overnight and be a major by 5 AM. Not that I'm expecting it to do so. Just that I wouldn't be surprised if it did.

[GCANE]

Just as I mentioned this morning the ULL north of Hispaniola filled in and the associated shortwave trough (aka PV anomaly) has cleared out ahead of Matthew.

Next hurdle is the longwave trough digging in currently west of Jamaica.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Isn't that trough what's supposed to steer it north to start with?

The longwave trough west of Jamaica is the one that the models are forecasting Matthew to interact with to cause it to make the turn north.

[TimeZone]

Hot tower.

[JaxGator]

A speed of 15-17 mph and strengthening at the same time is a bad mix for Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba (and Gitmo) and the U.S. if Matthew keeps doing what it has been today. Just an observation.

[TimeZone]

I'm interested to see what Recon finds.

[Rail Dawg]

As a hurricane chaser for 8 hurricanes (heading in to see the eye while everyone else is leaving or gone) the ONE thing I don't take for granted is that the hurricane will follow the forecasted track.

Matthew is still well out but is within 5 days of a POTENTIAL hit to Florida.

As it draws near I may very load up the truck and head that way.

But if I lived in Florida I would definitely be loading up on gas and all the stuff worth it's weight in gold after a hurricane strike.

After 8 times... some very big... I have seen first the panic and then watched the destruction... and then the looting after a major hurricane.

Matthew may very well breeze out to sea. But I take NOTHING for granted.

[fci]

That is scary as heck Alyono!

About the pressure everyone, I think it could be higher than usual due to the lower latitude maybe? I think the same happened with Haiyan in 2013 who had insane winds but a pressure not as low as other weaker windwise typhoons.

Maybe trade winds are enhancing the wind speed while the organization is still not quite there to have significantly lowering pressures yet?

[SouthDadeFish]

Mid-level eye feature is now apparent: