ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

This actually looks worse than 12 hours ago and is already decoupling due to the shear.

It doesnt have far to go though to pass the shear...this is not doing what I would have expected

[OntarioEggplant]

There is a weak vort off the north coast of PR producing those south winds the recon is currently seeing.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[TheStormExpert]

Latest saved Visible Satellite loop.

[CrazyC83]

Made a thread for our island friends to report and post local details on this system.

[SouthFLTropics]

I think it is trying its best to push through the shear but is it possible that the shear is moving west in tandem with 99L? Does anyone have the most recent shear tendency maps?

[gatorcane]

Latest saved Visible Satellite loop.

http://i.giphy.com/3o6ZtiewfFDUOf5ze8.gif

Naked swirl moving WNW gaining latitude. I think it misses Hispaniola and even PR. That swirl has a good vorticity though with convection on the SE side, it just needs the upper-environment to cooperate now and could take off.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[LarryWx]

Latest saved Visible Satellite loop.

http://i.giphy.com/3o6ZtiewfFDUOf5ze8.gif

Based on this loop, I have the LLC near 18.5n, 64.1W as of 16:15Z.

[xironman]

Recon is verifying that the center we have been looking at is in fact the LLC

More like an elongated trough...pressures were 1008 to the SE

Yeah...I think you are right. Now they are finding winds out of S to SE where you would expect N winds to be if they were going to close something off. Maybe still has competing centers?

The wind field of that little vort is probably still pretty small, they might need to home in on it.

[TheStormExpert]

Latest Shear Maps.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 241642
AF308 O2EEA INVEST HDOB 19 20160824
163300 1823N 06514W 9907 00172 0103 +249 +178 147007 008 026 000 03
163330 1824N 06515W 9912 00169 0102 +250 +177 167007 007 024 000 03
163400 1826N 06515W 9900 00178 0103 +241 +178 129005 007 029 008 00
163430 1827N 06516W 9905 00172 0103 +241 +180 099008 008 035 006 03
163500 1829N 06515W 9908 00171 0101 +254 +175 115007 008 /// /// 03
163530 1829N 06513W 9910 00168 0101 +255 +170 120007 009 020 000 03
163600 1829N 06512W 9908 00168 0100 +259 +172 100010 010 020 000 00
163630 1830N 06510W 9910 00166 0099 +257 +174 099010 011 020 000 03
163700 1830N 06509W 9908 00165 0098 +248 +172 133014 015 027 000 03
163730 1831N 06508W 9910 00162 0098 +250 +170 135013 015 028 000 03
163800 1832N 06506W 9907 00167 0097 +253 +168 142015 016 024 000 00
163830 1832N 06505W 9907 00166 0095 +254 +164 145014 015 023 000 00
163900 1833N 06503W 9908 00165 0095 +255 +165 140012 013 024 000 00
163930 1834N 06502W 9907 00166 0095 +251 +168 149010 011 022 000 00
164000 1834N 06500W 9907 00165 0096 +249 +170 154010 011 022 000 03
164030 1835N 06459W 9907 00168 0097 +252 +171 095012 014 025 000 00
164100 1835N 06458W 9899 00172 0096 +253 +170 095014 014 025 000 00
164130 1836N 06456W 9905 00166 0095 +248 +171 099014 014 024 000 00
164200 1836N 06455W 9872 00191 0091 +254 +164 102013 013 023 000 03
164230 1837N 06453W 9774 00283 0095 +245 +153 106011 012 021 000 00
$$
;

[SouthFLTropics]

Latest Shear Maps.

It has an uphill battle over the next 24 hours based on the shear map.

[SoupBone]

Latest Shear Maps.

That second image has shown increased GoM shear the last few times it's been posted. Do we have a specific modeling for shear forecasts? That area has definitely gotten larger in the GoM and more intense.

[fox13weather]

Based on visible loop, it's not developing any time soon, which is short for "it's a mess" #shear

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Gustywind]

Made a thread for our island friends to report and post local details on this system.

Very good, thanks to you, we all should appreciate to share with each other

[Gustywind]

Folks in Guadeloupe!!! I've never understand why our Our Pro Mets of Guadeloupe never put at least a yellow alert yesterday afternoon like the Northern Leewards! I woke up with Orange alert my friends, that's insane from Meteo-France!
Even Msbee you asked me why and i was unable to answer you because of i was surprised and confused by this attitude of Meteo-France. I hate this too much confidence, seems very dangerous and "ridiculous". Guadeloupe experienced 100 millimeters at La Désirade, 40 millimeters at le Moule and others areas at 30 millimeters. That's a very dangerous and luckily we don't have any damages but the day is not ended. Another story showing us that we're hopefully blessed at least for now.
An islander of Guadeloupe resumed that strange attitude from our Pro Mets, that's why i've posted this one.

99L
•By Celeste Patrick <belrpat at wanadoo.fr>
•Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2016 06:57:08 -0400

I went to bed last nigth with our pro- mets saying everything is ok 99 l Will
stay North of us and I awake with flashflood warning and Guadeloupe in the
middle of the big red blob , ligtnings, Thunder and more rain to come ' Too
late folks for an alert that everybody was waiting yesterday.


http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/guadeloupe.shtml

[Gustywind]

18260 Postby Gustywind » Wed Aug 24, 2016 10:43 am

From our daily newspaper called " FranceAntilles" today... extracted from the latest weather forecast of Meteo-France this morning 5AM.
https://translate.google.com/translate? ... edit-text=

Guadeloupe in orange alert for heavy rain and thunderstorms

Wednesday, August 24, 2016 - 7:07

Widespread and heavy rainstorms affecting our island since that night. They are associated with a very active tropical wave that has a good chance of turning into a tropical depression.
These strong rainfall are expected until Thursday morning at least. sometimes thundershowers taking a quasi-stationary nature alternate with more or less long lull episodes.
Very significant accumulations may occur in a short time, both the relief and as around the Pointoise agglomeration.
Since the beginning of the rainy period, we reported more than 110 mm at la Désirade, (80 mm in one hour). There were also 40 mm in one hour at le Moule.
Next newsletter: Wednesday noon.


How to behave

- Inquire before starting a movement and be very careful
- Avoid mountain walks and hikes in relief
- If you live in a flood zone, put your property safe susceptible to damage and monitor the rising water
- If your home may be threatened by a landslide, leave there or be prepared to evacuate quickly
During thunderstorms: Avoid using telephones and electrical appliances. Do not shelter in a wooded area, close to poles or posts, or under an isolated tree.

[Gustywind]

Numerous floodings have been reported in Guadeloupe even small muslides. If i've more infos about i will keep you informed.

Floods: worsening traffic in Sainte-Anne

https://translate.google.com/translate? ... 390261.php

Heavy rains have caused flooding in recent hours in the district of Valletta in Sainte-Anne. Several flooded streets are closed to traffic to return to normal: the streets of General de Gaulle, Cordiale Mathurin, Pierre pale. Traffic on the boulevard Hégésippe Ibéné is disrupted causing slowdowns.
Caution is strongly recommended.

[Gustywind]

Our Pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe have back off the orange alert to yellow. The Northern Leewards stays in yellow.
[url] Only 7 millimeters reported at Gustavia Airport ... that's not beneficial rains, let's hope that during the next couple hours things will change a bit.
http://www.meteofrance.gp/vigilance-antilles-guyane
[/url]