ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[lando]

that buoy cam is cool. any cruise ships out there?

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/781630064605659136

[NDG]

that buoy cam is cool. any cruise ships out there?

Cruise Ships don't like to loose money, so they are staying far away from its path

[Aric Dunn]

Very interesting that the deep layer bam shift quite a bit west. should have ingested the upper air data as well as the forward motion.

besides that likely a hurricane. convection has wrapped around the center at least somewhat

[TimeZone]

Mid-level eye feature is now apparent:

]https://s21.postimg.org/u006cglaf/20160929_2250_f18_x_91h_14_LMATTHEW_65kts_993mb_1.jpg

This thing looks ready for takeoff.

[MaineWeatherNut]

Pressure is now down below 985mb

232730 1422N 06758W 6963 03033 9852 +143 +073 128019 025 040 004 00

[NDG]

Per recon the NE quadrant is not that strong as I would had thought it would had been.

[NDG]

Pressure is now down below 985mb

232730 1422N 06758W 6963 03033 9852 +143 +073 128019 025 040 004 00

Keep in mind that is flying at 700mb so that reading could be way off, have to wait for VDM.

[MaineWeatherNut]

Per recon the NE quadrant is not that strong as I would had thought it would had been.

No but the thing to note IMO is the 7+ mb pressure drop since the last recon pass.

[drewschmaltz]

Pressure is now down below 985mb

232730 1422N 06758W 6963 03033 9852 +143 +073 128019 025 040 004 00

At 8:00pm can we get each major model's last 3 8:00pm predictions for pressure, position and intensity VS actual pressure, position and intensity?

Thanks in advance if someone takes this initiative.

I can do this if models provide raw data output anywhere?

I'd like to do a projected vs projected trend vs actual.

[SouthDadeFish]

Always great to have recon. A fantastic time to have them in there with Matthew intensifying at a more brisk pace. It is looking increasingly likely we will see an eye appear on conventional IR imagery later tonight. Seems to really be coming together now.

[MaineWeatherNut]

Pressure is now down below 985mb

232730 1422N 06758W 6963 03033 9852 +143 +073 128019 025 040 004 00

Keep in mind that is flying at 700mb so that reading could be way off, have to wait for VDM.

We will see. But if that is correct that's a pretty big pressure drop.

[CrazyC83]

Given that the SFMR was still quite high at that point, I would think maybe 982 for pressure? But there is no basis to increase the intensity - in fact, the wind data doesn't even support hurricane intensity from that quadrant. (I would think they would hold it at 65 kt until all quads are sampled)

[ScottNAtlanta]

Its down to 985 and they are getting close to the center...but not quite there

[SouthDadeFish]

The winds aren't increasing yet as the profile is likely changing shape instead while the inner-core builds. I would be surprised if winds don't go up by the next time they sample the NE quadrant.

[jlauderdal]

Per recon the NE quadrant is not that strong as I would had thought it would had been.

No but the thing to note IMO is the 7+ mb pressure drop since the last recon pass.

conditions are prime as it approaches jamaica and cuba...then land interaction then Bahamas bound...massive ACE pile up coming

[Alyono]

This is already slowing significantly as per the aircraft data

[ScottNAtlanta]

985 at the center...still waiting to see dropsonde data if they hit the center with it.

[TimeZone]

Kind of surprised they didn't find stronger winds in the NE quad there. Decent pressure fall, however.

[jlauderdal]

As a hurricane chaser for 8 hurricanes (heading in to see the eye while everyone else is leaving or gone) the ONE thing I don't take for granted is that the hurricane will follow the forecasted track.

Matthew is still well out but is within 5 days of a POTENTIAL hit to Florida.

As it draws near I may very load up the truck and head that way.

But if I lived in Florida I would definitely be loading up on gas and all the stuff worth it's weight in gold after a hurricane strike.

After 8 times... some very big... I have seen first the panic and then watched the destruction... and then the looting after a major hurricane.

Matthew may very well breeze out to sea. But I take NOTHING for granted.

wilma was our last hit in sofla....long time ago...this west trend is concerning today and it appears to be continuing...another 24 hours of this and we will really have to start considering a sofla strike