ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kazmit]

Kind of surprised they didn't find stronger winds in the NE quad there. Decent pressure fall, however.

The wind needs to catch up with the pressure falling. I'll give it around six hours before the wind starts picking up significantly.

[TimeZone]

Kind of surprised they didn't find stronger winds in the NE quad there. Decent pressure fall, however.

The wind needs to catch up with the pressure falling. I'll give it around six hours before the wind starts picking up significantly.

Fair enough, I was just expecting a slight increase. I don't doubt that they'll catch up shortly. Storm is looking more and more impressive each frame. If Shear falls as much as currently forecast, I can't see anything preventing Matthew from attaining Major Hurricane status.

[tatertawt24]

This seems like it might be one of those storms that has a huge pressure drop while it gets itself together, and then once it's ready, its winds catch up within the blink of an eye. I remember Katrina did that (not that this storm is going to be ANYTHING like Katrina--I'm just saying that that weird kind of delay isn't terribly uncommon).

[cycloneye]

The headline says it all.

...HURRICANE MATTHEW GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 68.1W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NNE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

[NDG]

Pressure is now down below 985mb

232730 1422N 06758W 6963 03033 9852 +143 +073 128019 025 040 004 00

Keep in mind that is flying at 700mb so that reading could be way off, have to wait for VDM.

We will see. But if that is correct that's a pretty big pressure drop.

VDM:

H. 988 mb

Is still a nice drop though.

[psyclone]

Matthew looks sufficiently organized for a spurt of rapid intensification at any time. A very impressive system indeed.

[Hurrilurker]

Last few frames on satellite it's starting to look less constrained on the west and south sides, outflow pushing outwards again, shear maybe decreasing. Still kind of rough but looking better and better.

[SunnyThoughts]

L. OPEN S recon vdm reporting an eye now, open to the south.

[abajan]

The headline says it all.

...HURRICANE MATTHEW GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...

I would've just stated that it's becoming better organized, and omitted "gradually". But they're the experts.

[Rail Dawg]

wilma was our last hit in sofla....long time ago...this west trend is concerning today and it appears to be continuing...another 24 hours of this and we will really have to start considering a sofla strike

You're right. Do you remember Floyd as a CAT 5 in 1999 heading right for the heart of Florida? And at the last minute it veered and slammed into N. Carolina as a Cat 2?

Third largest evacuation in history behind Gustav (I was there in New Iberia, LA) and Rita (I was there in Houston).

I was on the coast south of Jacksonville and man was there panic. I was loaded with plenty of supplies to survive it but I felt really bad for those who simply didn't have the means to prepare.

Matthew could very well be a Fish but I won't be comfortable until at least Sunday.

We're going to know soon!

[drewschmaltz]

wilma was our last hit in sofla....long time ago...this west trend is concerning today and it appears to be continuing...another 24 hours of this and we will really have to start considering a sofla strike

You're right. Do you remember Floyd as a CAT 5 in 1999 heading right for the heart of Florida? And at the last minute it veered and slammed into N. Carolina as a Cat 2?

Third largest evacuation in history behind Gustav (I was there in New Iberia, LA) and Rita (I was there in Houston).

I was on the coast south of Jacksonville and man was there panic. I was loaded with plenty of supplies to survive it but I felt really bad for those who simply didn't have the means to prepare.

Matthew could very well be a Fish but I won't be comfortable until at least Sunday.

We're going to know soon!

I surfed Floyd at New Smyrna. We ran inside every half hour to make sure it was gunna turn. Boy it got close. I'm 31 now so that would have been at the young age of 14.

[SeGaBob]

Anyone down to play?

http://i.imgur.com/uQQqWKT.png

Most people know what I'm going with here.

[Rail Dawg]

I surfed Floyd at New Smyrna. We ran inside every half hour to make sure it was gunna turn. Boy it got close. I'm 31 now so that would have been at the young age of 14.

That's a great story!

Matthew is in the barrel next.

[robbielyn]

Anyone down to play?

http://i.imgur.com/uQQqWKT.png

Most people know what I'm going with here.

let me guess, hmm uh eeny meeny mynee moe East of Bermuda!

[Hammy]

Anyone down to play?

http://i.imgur.com/uQQqWKT.png

Most people know what I'm going with here.

I'll take "Matthew is struggling from the shear" for the win.

That said, while the radar presentation appears better than it did earlier, this isn't looking great on IR--the CDO seems more amorphic and broken than it did earlier. Recon is sending mixed signals as well, both pressure and winds are reduced--could this be a result of a weakened low-level jet so the intensity has to come entirely from the storm itself?

[Rail Dawg]

Our met office has issued this weather bulletin. (If the page doesn't load, try this one and then click the link in the scrolling text near the top of the screen.)

By the way, I have no idea why the first URL has "Planet of Apes".

Good work.

[jlauderdal]

wilma was our last hit in sofla....long time ago...this west trend is concerning today and it appears to be continuing...another 24 hours of this and we will really have to start considering a sofla strike

You're right. Do you remember Floyd as a CAT 5 in 1999 heading right for the heart of Florida? And at the last minute it veered and slammed into N. Carolina as a Cat 2?

Third largest evacuation in history behind Gustav (I was there in New Iberia, LA) and Rita (I was there in Houston).

I was on the coast south of Jacksonville and man was there panic. I was loaded with plenty of supplies to survive it but I felt really bad for those who simply didn't have the means to prepare.

Matthew could very well be a Fish but I won't be comfortable until at least Sunday.

We're going to know soon!

yep...i had to shutter up for floyd as i am a mile off the beach...i could hear the police in lauderdale by the sea on loudpseakers announcing the evacuation as i was hoisting hurricane panels..we had to prepare for a direct hit...it behaved and we had a sunny day as it passed to our east

[robbielyn]

Anyone down to play?

http://i.imgur.com/uQQqWKT.png

Most people know what I'm going with here.

I'll take "Matthew is struggling from the shear" for the win.

That said, while the radar presentation appears better than it did earlier, this isn't looking great on IR--the CDO seems more amorphic and broken than it did earlier. Recon is sending mixed signals as well, both pressure and winds are reduced--could this be a result of a weakened low-level jet so the intensity has to come entirely from the storm itself?

Sorry Hammy I already took that one. But it has been dealing with sheer levi said it would as it crossed north of CA. Should look better tomorrow.

[jlauderdal]

wilma was our last hit in sofla....long time ago...this west trend is concerning today and it appears to be continuing...another 24 hours of this and we will really have to start considering a sofla strike

You're right. Do you remember Floyd as a CAT 5 in 1999 heading right for the heart of Florida? And at the last minute it veered and slammed into N. Carolina as a Cat 2?

Third largest evacuation in history behind Gustav (I was there in New Iberia, LA) and Rita (I was there in Houston).

I was on the coast south of Jacksonville and man was there panic. I was loaded with plenty of supplies to survive it but I felt really bad for those who simply didn't have the means to prepare.

Matthew could very well be a Fish but I won't be comfortable until at least Sunday.

We're going to know soon!

I surfed Floyd at New Smyrna. We ran inside every half hour to make sure it was gunna turn. Boy it got close. I'm 31 now so that would have been at the young age of 14.

it was a crazy time....it was all about the turn which obviously you cant trust until it actually happens when its that close

[pcolaman]

Anyone down to play?

http://i.imgur.com/uQQqWKT.png

Most people know what I'm going with here.

I'll take "Matthew is struggling from the shear" for the win.

That said, while the radar presentation appears better than it did earlier, this isn't looking great on IR--the CDO seems more amorphic and broken than it did earlier. Recon is sending mixed signals as well, both pressure and winds are reduced--could this be a result of a weakened low-level jet so the intensity has to come entirely from the storm itself?

Or is it a slow down to start wrapping the tremendous amount of moisture around itself?