ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[OntarioEggplant]

Shear increasing... This thing is dying. NHC should lower its chances now. I don't see it making it.

I agree. I think the party is over. It would be a miracle if it somehow survives this. I haven't checked the model page, but wouldn't be surprised if they start backing off on any development whatsoever.

There is literally nothing to indicate this other than a model with poor physics and another with poor initialization sending it over Hispaniola.

[Gustywind]

... Since the beginning of the rainy period, we reported more than 110 mm at la Désirade, (80 mm in one hour) ...

That's over 3 inches in an hour, which is quite heavy. (Nothing when compared to the record of 1.5 inches in 1 minute, which occurred in 1970 but it's still a lot.)

Thanks for keeping us updated, Gusty.

Hope things start drying out for you down there. At least LLC appears to be moving out and away soon

Thanks for this wink my friend Chaser . Things aere drying out here for couple of hours, no report of moderate damages only minors damages from slight and isolated muslides in some areas but nothing bad at all . I hope that all those who could be in the path of 99L will be spared too.
Regards.
Gustywind

[hohnywx]

Shear increasing... This thing is dying. NHC should lower its chances now. I don't see it making it.

I agree. I think the party is over. It would be a miracle if it somehow survives this. I haven't checked the model page, but wouldn't be surprised if they start backing off on any development whatsoever.

There is literally nothing to indicate this other than a model with poor physics and another with poor initialization sending it over Hispaniola.

Honestly...no model (expect maybe the HWRF) was indicating a possibility at development today. I know everyone is antsy because it has been so long since there has been a possible threat to the US but we just need to take a breather and wait a day. By tomorrow, it should be moving out of the high shear.

[Gustywind]

Decreasing numbers for 99L ...
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
24/1745 UTC 19.0N 64.8W T1.0/2.0 99L
24/1145 UTC 17.4N 62.1W T2.0/2.0 99L
24/0545 UTC 16.9N 60.9W T1.5/1.5 99L
23/2345 UTC 15.9N 58.1W T1.5/1.5 99L
23/1745 UTC 17.1N 58.1W TOO WEAK 99L
23/1145 UTC 16.8N 56.5W T1.0/1.0 99L
23/0545 UTC 15.9N 54.7W T1.0/1.0 99L

[Craters]

I'm predicting when this system is all done, this topic will have more than 100 pages...

Blown Away -- Just wondering if you might want to revise your estimate, there. You did say "more than 100 pages" back then, but yowie!...

[OntarioEggplant]

Decreasing numbers for 99L ...
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
24/1745 UTC 19.0N 64.8W T1.0/2.0 99L
24/1145 UTC 17.4N 62.1W T2.0/2.0 99L
24/0545 UTC 16.9N 60.9W T1.5/1.5 99L
23/2345 UTC 15.9N 58.1W T1.5/1.5 99L
23/1745 UTC 17.1N 58.1W TOO WEAK 99L
23/1145 UTC 16.8N 56.5W T1.0/1.0 99L
23/0545 UTC 15.9N 54.7W T1.0/1.0 99L

This is fine. It is less organized than it was overnight, but the more important part is we have recon to confirm the strength and organization of the storm.

[OntarioEggplant]

It's interesting to watch the high centered over Virginia and the flow around it in the Euro. That's the key to the movement of 99L...watch it in the models.

[Nederlander]

Euro still showing strong ridge in place through 96 hours

[OntarioEggplant]

Ridge is showing signs of breaking down a little at 120 hours on the Euro as 99L strengthens exiting Florida.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 241744
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
144 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


A tropical wave moving across the Lesser Antilles with axis
extending from 21N66W to a 1009 mb low near 18N63W to 12N61W.
At this time, scattered moderate convection is observed from
15N-21N between 61W-68W. As of 25/1500 UTC; an Air Force
Reconnaissance aircraft and latest scatterometer data reported
gale force winds from 17N-20N between 61W-65W in association to
this system. Although environmental conditions are currently
marginally conducive for additional development, this system could
become a tropical depression or tropical storm at any time during
the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at about 10-15
kt across the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola,
and the Bahamas. Strong winds, heavy rains, and flash floods and
mudslides are possible across these islands. This system has a
medium chance of tropical formation through the next 48 hours.

[AutoPenalti]

Looking through Facebook and people are not really taking much action.

http://i63.tinypic.com/2w2g5kp.jpg
http://i65.tinypic.com/2cysgmp.jpg

[OntarioEggplant]

That's what happens when there hasn't been a major landfall since 2005 combined with many new people to the area. People get complacent.

[SoupBone]

What's that feature sitting over the Texas coast at the 120 hour mark?

[Nederlander]

BIG swing east on the euro... Riding up the Florida gulf coast at 144hr

[abajan]

... Since the beginning of the rainy period, we reported more than 110 mm at la Désirade, (80 mm in one hour) ...

That's over 3 inches in an hour, which is quite heavy. (Nothing when compared to the record of 1.5 inches in 1 minute, which occurred in 1970 but it's still a lot.)

Thanks for keeping us updated, Gusty.

You're welcomed Abajan, glad to see you back and to answer me, that's always a pleasure . For the record that you were speaking about... oh yeah not for now lol, that was impressive in 1970 . Seems that Guadeloupe and even the others Leewards were blessed as usual . Unless some minor floodings, we received very beneficial rains in some areas Did you received some nice rains from 99L Abajan?
Gustywind

It was cloudy yesterday but we hardly got a drop of rain! And the sun is shining brightly today.

[tarheelprogrammer]

ECMWF trending toward GFS solution.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=300

[OntarioEggplant]

Yeah the ridge is severely breaking down at 144. Not an unexpected turn based on the 120 hr plot.

Should get even clearer as the upstream soundings start sampling the incoming midlatitude systems.

[SouthFLTropics]

BIG swing east on the euro... Riding up the Florida gulf coast at 144hr

This is obviously a major shift but it is also 6 days out. This is why I wouldn't put much stock in any model beyond 2 to 3 days right now. We've seen too many wild swings in the 4 to 5 day range to feel confident about anything. Track and especially intensity at this range is iffy at best, especially with a complex scenario shaping up.

[abajan]

Looking through Facebook and people are not really taking much action.

http://i63.tinypic.com/2w2g5kp.jpg
http://i65.tinypic.com/2cysgmp.jpg

Wow! My assumption is that the folks making those comments are pretty young. I just can't see anyone who's old enough to remember Andrew making such statements.

[psyclone]

As we watch this EURO run, it's worth remembering that it has already demolished the entire Gulf coast from Cedar Key to Port Arthur in prior runs. While I'm not writing this disturbance off I am solidly in a "show me the money" mood. I suspect we eventually get a name on this I'm not buying into a strong storm until I see it happening. In other words...show me an eye. Freaking out over model depictions in the absence of real development is the ultimate complacency builder...and as the Facebook comments linked above show...it does lasting damage. Emergency managers have to find that cringe worthy, especially when we know that rapid, close in development can happen.