ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Portastorm]

And herein lines the problem.....people actually WANT hurricanes to hit land and affect people.

Yeah, because anyone hoping for a hurricane actually affects the outcome of it, right?

We don't hope for a nuclear war either

Classic example of multiple responses loaded with sarcasm that never needed to be sent. Next time, posts will be deleted and warnings sent.

[Gustywind]

That's over 3 inches in an hour, which is quite heavy. (Nothing when compared to the record of 1.5 inches in 1 minute, which occurred in 1970 but it's still a lot.)

Thanks for keeping us updated, Gusty.

You're welcomed Abajan, glad to see you back and to answer me, that's always a pleasure . For the record that you were speaking about... oh yeah not for now lol, that was impressive in 1970 . Seems that Guadeloupe and even the others Leewards were blessed as usual . Unless some minor floodings, we received very beneficial rains in some areas Did you received some nice rains from 99L Abajan?
Gustywind

It was cloudy yesterday but we hardly got a drop of rain! And the sun is shining brightly today.

that's insane

[ConvergenceZone]

BIG swing east on the euro... Riding up the Florida gulf coast at 144hr

Well at least if this happens, it won't get very strong wind wise, as it's just not gonna have the time

[fci]

Shear increasing... This thing is dying. NHC should lower its chances now. I don't see it making it.

I agree. I think the party is over. It would be a miracle if it somehow survives this. I haven't checked the model page, but wouldn't be surprised if they start backing off on any development whatsoever.

Wow!
That's a pretty big leap to make while the NHC has higher than likely %'s for development and The Pro Mets here are talking it up.
Personally, I would love a "poof" but don't truly expect that since none of them predicted any appreciable develpment until 99L clears the Islands and gets into The Bahamas. Plus I don't see the models being so wrong.
Hope you are right though!

[gatorcane]

Quite an east shift with the EURO that run. Not sure what to believe with these models.

In all seriousness, seems we are seeing the ECMWF and GFS trending closer to each other maybe meeting somewhere in the middle.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Interesting video by jim cantore incase anyone hasnt seen it yet
[Youtube]https://youtu.be/iAViQCejISw[/Youtube]

[fci]

BIG swing east on the euro... Riding up the Florida gulf coast at 144hr

This is obviously a major shift but it is also 6 days out. This is why I wouldn't put much stock in any model beyond 2 to 3 days right now. We've seen too many wild swings in the 4 to 5 day range to feel confident about anything. Track and especially intensity at this range is iffy at best, especially with a complex scenario shaping up.

I think if we look back a couple of days, this was the scenario that some models were playing out.
Cross SFL, maybe as a TD or TS and then up the West Coast of FL or our a little and coming in around The Big Bend.

[ronjon]

Quite an east shift with the EURO that run. Not sure what to believe with these models.

In all seriousness, seems we are seeing the ECMWF and GFS trending closer to each other maybe meeting somewhere in the middle.

A weak tropical storm up the spine of FL? perhaps...

[Stormcenter]

I don't buy either of the latest GFS or EURO runs. I've always had a feeling this might be a Fl. panhandle issue somewhere around the AL./FL border or a little further east.

Anyway a lot can and probably will change from now until the first U.S. (if there's one) landfall. IMO

[bbadon]

Question, what do I see just to the west of 99l on the NE tip of Hispanola. It almost looks like another vort developing.

[stormlover2013]

everyone has opinions no doubt about it, but remember the ridge has been strong all summer, it's not going to break down this easy

[Steve]

Looking through Facebook and people are not really taking much action.

http://i63.tinypic.com/2w2g5kp.jpg
http://i65.tinypic.com/2cysgmp.jpg

Wow! My assumption is that the folks making those comments are pretty young. I just can't see anyone who's old enough to remember Andrew making such statements.

It's all group think which is one of the reasons I don't have any social media accounts. People whine because they have nothing else to do. It's the same jerks that would be screaming they didn't give enough warning. I saw the news last week where some old redneck guy was saying "they told us we didn't need flood insurance" after his house was destroyed. No chump, they said you weren't required to have it because you didn't live in a flood zone. Yet there are commercials on tv all the time recommending people obtain it. And any homeowner in South LA that doesn't have flood insurance at this point is simply being ignorant. It rains probably on average of every 2 to 2 1/2 days. Sometimes it rains a lot. And you might flood from rising rivers or the inability of gravity or pumps to get the water out fast enough. Bah.

[gatorcane]

850mb vorticity is strong but the upper-anticyclone is sitting just to the south over the Northern Caribbean Sea. So just marginal conditions for development as the NHC pointed out.

[Steve H.]

Yeah, when many people get in the mix and becomes a group think it becomes a design by committee. That's how the Platypus was designed. A mammal that lay eggs, has a beak and webbed feet. Now we have 99L, which is another mess!!

[Blown Away]

24/1745 UTC 19.0N 64.8W T1.0/2.0 99L

Down from 2.0/2.0...

[txwatcher91]

everyone has opinions no doubt about it, but remember the ridge has been strong all summer, it's not going to break down this easy

With the approaching shortwave being modeled it is quite possible for the ridge to break down rather quickly and/or shift east allowing 99L to track similar to the GFS or Euro solution.

[deltadog03]

Live now if y'all want to ask questions
https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons/

[ConvergenceZone]

Quite an east shift with the EURO that run. Not sure what to believe with these models.

In all seriousness, seems we are seeing the ECMWF and GFS trending closer to each other maybe meeting somewhere in the middle.

A weak tropical storm up the spine of FL? perhaps...

I think so. Who knows we may end up getting a tropical storm out of this after all, if it's able to get its act together in the next 2 days

[SoupBone]

850mb vorticity is strong but the upper-anticyclone is sitting just to the south over the Northern Caribbean Sea. So just marginal conditions for development as the NHC pointed out.

This is about the 30th time I've asked this so hopefully someone will respond. This is the third time those shear charts have showed 30 knot shear covering a huge chunk of the GoM. Was that expected, and is it forecast to remain in place?

[OntarioEggplant]

850mb vorticity is strong but the upper-anticyclone is sitting just to the south over the Northern Caribbean Sea. So just marginal conditions for development as the NHC pointed out.

This is about the 30th time I've asked this so hopefully someone will respond. This is the third time those shear charts have showed 30 knot shear covering a huge chunk of the GoM. Was that expected, and is it forecast to remain in place?

Shear charts show what is happening currently. They are not reflective of a future conditions.