ATL: HERMINE - Models

[Bocadude85]

So far the 18Z HWRF is stronger then the 12z

[Alyono]

I'm not sure if this is entirely true, but I heard that the GFS data at 00z is "refreshed". So that 00z run will be key to see if it falls back in line with the Euro. If it doesn't, then the 00z Euro run will be key to see if it backs off development. I feel like we're going to have a long week with the models being on and off.

Every model run has new data...the old rumor of the 6z and 18z not having new data is not true.

15 years ago, the 6 and 18Z runs were mostly initialized off of the previous 6 hour forecast

Now, >99% of data assimilated is satellite and radar. The 6 and 18Z is nearly as good as the 0 and 12. Quite usuable

[SouthFLTropics]

So far the 18Z HWRF is stronger then the 12z

Does seem more bullish this run. Definitely appears more organized.

At 105 it's got a cane east of the Central Bahamas. Major difference from the 12z.

[Bocadude85]

So far the 18Z HWRF is stronger then the 12z

Does seem more bullish this run. Definitely appears more organized.

At 105 it's got a cane east of the Central Bahamas. Major difference from the 12z.

It's also southwest of the 12z

[AtlanticWind]

Nogaps weak system 1010mb thru the keys

[SouthFLTropics]

So far the 18Z HWRF is stronger then the 12z

Does seem more bullish this run. Definitely appears more organized.

At 105 it's got a cane east of the Central Bahamas. Major difference from the 12z.

It's also southwest of the 12z

Correct...not by much. But at this range miles matter.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

If you are under the models at this point I wouldn't worry. I have so much sandbags and supplies from modelstorms I'm beyond prepared...it does not hurt to prepare but models will be models..

[SouthFLTropics]

Ummmm...at hour 114 HWRF takes a 75 knot cane and looks to turn it west towards Florida.

[Bocadude85]

Does seem more bullish this run. Definitely appears more organized.

At 105 it's got a cane east of the Central Bahamas. Major difference from the 12z.

It's also southwest of the 12z

Correct...not by much. But at this range miles matter.

Much stronger at 114 hours..I'm not sure how great the HWRF is when it comes to track but I did read that it's one of the best performing models when it comes to intensify.

[AtlanticWind]

GFDL has a 1000mb tropical storm just east of bahamas

[SouthFLTropics]

I'm curious...I was under the impression that the HWRF is run off of the MU. If that is the case then how does the MU show squat and then the HWRF turn around and show what we're seeing now?

[WeatherEmperor]

GFDL has a 1000mb tropical storm just east of bahamas

Aaaah so the Gfdl wakes up and shows development wow lol. I dont think it showed anything until now

[hurricanehunter69]

MU still has nothing but a sheared Piece of cow dung

Dude...Dude! LMAO! I gotta hang out wit you man! You, 57 and the NHC are all on top of this thing perfectly. Just like Fiona, this thing is having issues with mid level dry air. I'd still be very concerned in what happens in the Bahamas though?

[SouthFLTropics]

Hour 123, HWRF puts a Cat 2 just east of North/Central Bahamas...On a WNW heading.

[SouthFLTropics]

RI taking place on HWRF on last frame at hour 126. Up to almost 110MPH and headed WNW in the Northern Bahamas. That's an attention getter right there.

[Bocadude85]

Hour 123, HWRF puts a Cat 2 just east of North/Central Bahamas...On a WNW heading.

126 hours the run ends with a strong cat 2 just east of northern Bahamas

[AtlanticWind]

Wow 961MB on the HWRF

[SouthFLTropics]

Wow 961MB on the HWRF

I show 958...But the most troublesome is that it went from 975 to 958 in 12 hours.

[Bocadude85]

18Z NAVGEM has a better organized but still weak system making landfall in SFla/Keys @138 hours.

[hurrtracker79]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/767872571090108417