ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[stormreader]

Might sound funny, but what with the model spread and the large shifts we've already seen, I just think that the Northern Gulf Coast really has to keep an eye on this.

Northern Gulf Coast definitely should watch. I am sticking with Yucatán Channel into the Gulf of Mexico. Just an amateur opinion.

Here we go....I was worried I would start reading Northern Gulf Coast posts. God and Mother Nature will always stay pissed off at New Orleans. And after all, and "as they say" if you're in the bulls eye this far out....you're safe.

Not necessarily New Orleans, just northern Gulf Coast. It's not far fetched for the system to make it toward the Yucatan Channel area. Confidence in the present forecast is rather low. A storm that makes it to the western tip of Cuba would necessarily make one take a look at the Northern Gulf Coast.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Great post Steve,

And the best way to view this. This will be a long process until anyone really knows where this will end up. So many variables to consider is it faster , slower. Does it dip SW does the weakness pull it directly north, Does it get shoved back west. Wow just so many possibilities, going to be a very long week or so ahead.

[stormreader]

Great post Steve,

And the best way to view this. This will be a long process until anyone really knows where this will end up. So many variables to consider is it faster , slower. Does it dip SW does the weakness pull it directly north, Does it get shoved back west. Wow just so many possibilities, going to be a very long week or so ahead.

Don't want to make light of damage and potential for loss of life, but purely from a scientific view, this could be one of the most interesting storms to forecast in years. Complex situation, model disparity, and possible late season major hurricane. Very interesting.

[Steve]

For sure. Thanks. I didn't even mention a legitimate possibility of a west hook later on if it did take an Atlantic route. It seems we need more east coast impacts if we are really close to transitioning toward a quieter period or moving toward a -AMO. As an aside, Weatherbell is thinking both oceans are close to flipping to cold phases but possibly not all that extreme.

NAMs are out and the cut off is much farther west in the rust belt. Trough/cold pool filters down to TX and stars lifting out at 84hrs. Looks like it would have led to a hit east of here, but they don't go that far out.

[WeatherEmperor]

00z Gfs starts in about 5. Any guesses what happens? More west...back east??


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

[Bocadude85]

00z Gfs starts in about 5. Any guesses what happens? More west...back east??


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

It will probably throw a curveball and trend back east.

[CrazyC83]

00z Gfs starts in about 5. Any guesses what happens? More west...back east??


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

A bit west and basically running up 75W longitude.

[tarheelprogrammer]

00z Gfs starts in about 5. Any guesses what happens? More west...back east??


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

It will show a NC landfall for the US.

[WeatherEmperor]

Here we go




Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

For sure. Thanks. I didn't even mention a legitimate possibility of a west hook later on if it did take an Atlantic route. It seems we need more east coast impacts if we are really close to transitioning toward a quieter period or moving toward a -AMO. As an aside, Weatherbell is thinking both oceans are close to flipping to cold phases but possibly not all that extreme.

NAMs are out and the cut off is much farther west in the rust belt. Trough/cold pool filters down to TX and stars lifting out at 84hrs. Looks like it would have led to a hit east of here, but they don't go that far out.

Last i read la nina was basically not happening and that the equatorial pacific just has barely cooled any to declare official la nina but it cooled just enough to not be el nino last i read this may be considered a nuetral trend for the pacific. Just today i was at the beach due to a horrible heat wave putting 100 plus degree weather at the shores which is not common for southern cali beaches that average 70-80 in summer. Was findig red lobsters and red crabs washed up on the beach i was at. The water is still warm compared to what it used to feel like. basically now its like the cool tap water you get out of your backyard hose that feels nice on a hot day so la nina remains to be foreseen here in these parts

[WeatherEmperor]

Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

[Miami Storm Tracker]

My thinking is GFS is going to slide ever so slightly to the west again, Just my thoughts.

[WeatherEmperor]

Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

[txwatcher91]

Through hour 48 GFS appears slightly stronger and maybe a tad faster with 97L.

[Hammy]

Will this be the first run with the recon data? I'm expecting weaker if so.

[drewschmaltz]

Through 60 it looks faster souther stronger and all around worser.

Edit: Um, I wasn't using the tool exactly right. The runs are similar, but through 84 it's same strength, just a little faster, and maybe a hair more north.

[FLpanhandle91]

Through 60, 00z taking 97L to 71.5ish? W vs 69W on the 18z 60hr run.. curious to see how this finishes out. Further west and stronger so far.

[WeatherEmperor]

Through 60 it looks faster souther stronger and all around worser.

What???


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

[WeatherEmperor]

Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Think they mean it's better organized, but bad for who ever gets it.