ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[1900hurricane]

Yeah, a little bit of a warm spot is showing up on IR. I wouldn't call it an eye yet, but that's clearly where the embedded center is, which is backed up by recon data.

[wxmann_91]

RI imminent right now. Evident on both satellite and from Curacao radar.

[Yellow Evan]

ADT's may skyrocket soon.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 SEP 2016 Time : 024500 UTC
Lat : 14:06:22 N Lon : 68:44:45 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 980.6mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.5 4.0

Center Temp : -76.0C Cloud Region Temp : -74.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

[1900hurricane]

d(recon)/dt is going to be interesting this pass.

[MaineWeatherNut]

Looks like 979.5 mb pressure this pass. So pressure continues to drop.

[sponger]

Someone posted on another forum that Chief Meteorologist Steve Weagle of WPTV in W. Palm Beach is reporting that samplings indicate the Bermuda High is stronger than indicated by the models and the high northeast of Cuba is also stronger.

Interesting...curious how he would know this information ?

the dropsonde data can be compared to the model forecasts

Confirmed!

http://www.wptv.com/weather/weather-blogs/air-force-hurricane-hunter-plane-investigating-tropical-wave-97l

[sponger]

Looks like 979.5 mb pressure this pass. So pressure continues to drop.

2MB an hour, if it verifies!

[bg1]

Seems to be quickly transitioning from a shear pattern to a CDO-dominant hurricane.

Was just about to say pretty much this. The convection is no longer pulsing and is now clearly wrapping up into the center.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 300330.GIF

WOW. Times like this is why I always tell myself never to underestimate the tropics, even if conditions have been horrible in the past.

[TimeZone]

We could be witnessing RI already if that 979.5 is indeed accurate.

[tatertawt24]

The core looks like it's gonna be much tighter than I thought it would be.

[sponger]

Dare i say the core looks quite annular?

[Yellow Evan]

Dare i say the core looks quite annular?

Annular storms have large, symmetrical eyes with warm CDO's over low shear and cool water. This is anything but annular.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Dare i say the core looks quite annular?

I think you are getting a tad bit ahead of yourself there

[Yellow Evan]

CMG ring is rapidly forming. I wonder how long till it clears out an eye.

[sponger]

Dare i say the core looks quite annular?

Annular storms have large, symmetrical eyes with warm CDO's over low shear and cool water. This is anything but annular.

Structure first, eye second. Just an observation that we are not seeing a lot of banding.

[NotoSans]

Dropsonde says 981 (983 mb with 21 kt surface winds). VDM reports that the eyewall is still open to the SE though.

[Aric Dunn]

Dare i say the core looks quite annular?

I think you are getting a tad bit ahead of yourself there

annular is also typical of a dry surrounding environment .. this does not..

[sponger]

Pretty rare for the Atlantic. I am sure he will have some pretty bands tomorrow!

[Yellow Evan]

[ronyan]

I think "it looks annular" needs to be a square in the BINGO game if it isn't already. I've seen that more times than I count over the years in these threads.