ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

Isn't that big blog slamming towards HR the one that had the unflagged 50kts winds?

[jlauderdal]

either the LLC is moving NW or that is a vort spinning out NE of Puerto Rico?

Clearly the mid-level and low-level circulations are not aligned. New convection firing along the northern periphery of the broad low.

SAT loop link:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

it is the main llc just moving to fast to proce and significant west winds with out deep convection. should low way down in about 6 to 8 hours.

http://i66.tinypic.com/vdk6rl.jpg
18z TAFB sees 99L just off Hispaniola in 24 hours...

hispanola effect.. it either hits the shredder or it sucks in dry air from the mountains..either way its not good for development

[gatorcane]

I find a hard time seeing how it will get that close to Hispaniola that TAFB shows. Assuming the LLC we have identified NE of Puerto Rico is the one, it looks like it will be able to clear Hispaniola easily. Loop:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=black

[sunnyday]

Does anyone here feel that this will not make a storm?

[AutoPenalti]

Does anyone here feel that this will not make a storm?

There's always that possibility that it won't have enough time to organize.

[hohnywx]

it is the main llc just moving to fast to proce and significant west winds with out deep convection. should low way down in about 6 to 8 hours.

http://i66.tinypic.com/vdk6rl.jpg
18z TAFB sees 99L just off Hispaniola in 24 hours...

hispanola effect.. it either hits the shredder or it sucks in dry air from the mountains..either way its not good for development

I thought dry air only was an issue when a storm went to the south (because of downsloping)?

[tropicwatch]

Once it is pass Hispaniola, the upper level wind shear should be quite less. That is if there is a system left passing Hispaniola.

[gatorcane]

Floater from NHC. It seems the system is doing things in reverse - that is it is developing curved "bands" on the north and east side but the convection around the LLC is minimal. Also note LLC moving briskly to the NW gaining latitude north of the NE tip of Puerto Rico

[jlauderdal]

Once it is pass Hispaniola, the upper level wind shear should be quite less. That is if there is a system left passing Hispaniola.

if it makes it through then conditions improve...to be fair to the modeling didnt do much with this until later in the week...wxman57 pointed this out several days ago...we live in an era of instant gratification and we have seen many times systems in this area of the basin they dont usually develop fast if at all...this is fortunate because if they did there would be much more damage in the islands and the SE USA

[SoupBone]

What is this flareup?

[wxman57]

Somewhere between the upper Texas coast and Bermuda still looks most likely. I suspect that the overnight runs will come up with a completely different solution, possibly farther west again.

[Aric Dunn]

What is this flareup?

https://s14.postimg.org/opze2ktht/fiona.png

its whats left of fiona..

[SoupBone]

Somewhere between the upper Texas coast and Bermuda still looks most likely. I suspect that the overnight runs will come up with a completely different solution, possibly farther west again.

I thought you said Brownsville and Bermuda?

[Weatherboy1]

What is this flareup?

I believe that is the remnants of Fiona interacting with the dying frontal boundary in its vicinity. A handful of models suggest she might redevelop, though I was and am still skeptical of it

[MissKandi]

When is the next Recon flight scheduled?

[Bocadude85]

Somewhere between the upper Texas coast and Bermuda still looks most likely. I suspect that the overnight runs will come up with a completely different solution, possibly farther west again.

What are your thought on this just maybe never developing? How about S.Fla impact? TD/weakTS?

[rickybobby]

Hype all ready starting in central Florida. Wesh 2 said that if it passes north of Hispaniola it had s strong change of turning into a ts or a hurricane. It hits Miami on Monday at 8 and hits Orlando on Tuesday. He said it's time to check your hurricane kit.

[centuryv58]

Somewhere between the upper Texas coast and Bermuda still looks most likely. I suspect that the overnight runs will come up with a completely different solution, possibly farther west again.

I remember your original forecast of this, and you still are correct!! It's very frustrating I'm sure for ProMets at the moment.

[cycloneye]

When is the next Recon flight scheduled?

Thursday at 10:00 AM.

NEXT MISSION INTO THIS SYSTEM DELAYING THE 25/1130Z
FIX FOR AN INVEST AT 25/1400Z.....ADDED

[SFLcane]

Somewhere between the upper Texas coast and Bermuda still looks most likely. I suspect that the overnight runs will come up with a completely different solution, possibly farther west again.

57 thus far just as you stated no development till it nears the Bahamas. Question? By then how do u prepare?