ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1721 Postby USTropics » Wed Sep 28, 2016 4:49 am

Only 2/20 00z GFS ensembles show a complete recurve, the other 18 members impact the U.S. Below is an animated image of the other 18 members:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1722 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 4:50 am

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06z 66 hr GFS
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1723 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 4:57 am

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78 hr
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1724 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 5:03 am

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96 hr turn has begun
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1725 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 5:12 am

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114 poleward towards E Cuba
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1726 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 5:15 am

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Landfall #1 126 hr
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1727 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 5:18 am

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144hr raking central Bahama chain with due North heading.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1728 Postby p1nheadlarry » Wed Sep 28, 2016 5:20 am

stormhunter7 wrote:926mb at 240 hrs on EURO over western Bahamas.. ridge building to the north....


With the trough west and the high east, is this a good setup for strengthening, outflow channels appearing and our balmy ssts?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1729 Postby pgoss11 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 5:29 am

Offshore SC at 180 hours heading N. Outer banks should be in the direct path.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1730 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 5:31 am

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192 hr. Landfall ..way faster than euro
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1731 Postby USTropics » Wed Sep 28, 2016 5:32 am

Surface pressure of 945mb

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1732 Postby USTropics » Wed Sep 28, 2016 5:37 am

06z GFS operational heads up the coast after landfall in NC:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1733 Postby sandy18 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 5:40 am

these models show right on top of me here in North Carolina, I know its a long time out but we have a tree to cut down Saturday just in case. Please keep us informed here in NC, I know so many focus on Florida and thats understandable but up here we need to know you thoughts too. Thank you
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1734 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 5:43 am

sandy18 wrote:these models show right on top of me here in North Carolina, I know its a long time out but we have a tree to cut down Saturday just in case. Please keep us informed here in NC, I know so many focus on Florida and thats understandable but up here we need to know you thoughts too. Thank you


Ohh for sure. I just stopped at 200hrs cause the GFS is a fictional character pretty much after 150hrs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1735 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2016 5:54 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1736 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 28, 2016 6:03 am

The ECM takes 3 days to move from JAM to SE Bahamas = does that seem realistic?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1737 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 28, 2016 6:06 am

6Z GFS, 0 - 192
Image

0Z Euro, 0 - 192
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1738 Postby toad strangler » Wed Sep 28, 2016 6:12 am

obviously the GFS and Euro are LIGHT YEARS apart. One is WAY out to lunch.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1739 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 28, 2016 6:15 am

One thing I keep thinking,,,,the NAVGEM and CMC have been consistent on taking this through the Bahamas just east of Florida. Since when have these two normally unreliable models been correct so far out especially with such a complex setup?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1740 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 28, 2016 6:15 am

6Z GEFS

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