ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

your position is off, Aric

On SWIR, the center is 20.5N, 67W, NE of your position

So then storms are firing near possible LLC

no, they are still well away firing along the old boundary connecting the old rotation that went into DR and this one. though convection will have a better chance over the next few hours as continues to slow down.

[bamajammer4eva]

Could the daytime thunderstorms over Hispaniola disrupt the organization of 99L?

[Alyono]

your position is off, Aric

On SWIR, the center is 20.5N, 67W, NE of your position

So then storms are firing near possible LLC

they're still SE

[Aric Dunn]

So Aric doesn't that mean the center is a lil closer to the blowup with the hot tower? Is it maybe trying to make its way over?

it is possible for a separate one to form where the convection and inflow is while the old llc rotates away. will see what happens. right not just watching the current llc

[Joe Snow]

Watching the live radar feed the perceptation field is definitely moving in a NW direction

[Bocadude85]

Gale warning issued for the waters of the Bahamas...


CARIBBEAN SEA
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
515 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO
22N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...THE SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 65W
INCLUDING BAHAMAS...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

AMZ117-250915-
BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK-
515 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

...GALE WARNING...
...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...

.TONIGHT...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS.
.FRI...NE TO E WINDS 25 TO 35 KT ATLC EXPOSURES...AND NE 10 TO
15 KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
TSTMS.
.FRI NIGHT...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
.SAT...SE TO S WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
.SUN...SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.MON...SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

$$

[Joe Snow]

There is a ship Carnival Valor H3VR reporting weather just north west of the storm, looks like its making a run back to Florida.

http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shippo ... ?call=H3VR

[Aric Dunn]

There is a ship Carnival Valor H3VR reporting weather just north west of the storm, looks like its making a run back to Florida.

http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shippo ... ?call=H3VR

that is just south I mean just south very very close to center just reported a 230 degree wind that wsw

[gatorcane]

Big burst of convection in progress, saved loop:

[tropicwatch]

There is a ship Carnival Valor H3VR reporting weather just north west of the storm, looks like its making a run back to Florida.

http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shippo ... ?call=H3VR

that is just south I mean just south very very close to center just reported a 230 degree wind that wsw

Captain was probably in a damned if you do and damned if you don't situation. Try to out run it before it has a chance to development or wait and let it pass you by.

[JaxGator]

Wonder what it's like for the ship and it's passengers right now under the convection burst. Hope they get through safely.

[Joe Snow]

Carnival Glory right in the middle of the heaviest Thunderstorm.

10 foot waves every 2 seconds.......... I feel sea sick.

http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shippo ... call=3FPS9

[RL3AO]

The next 12 hours are going to be very important for what may impact S FL.

[Aric Dunn]

Carnival Glory right in the middle of the heaviest Thunderstorm.

10 foot waves every 2 seconds.......... I feel sea sick.

http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shippo ... call=3FPS9

still just like before south of that boundary there are plenty of west winds... the carnival valor though was very close to the center and still showed wsw.. now has east wind..

hard to say but maybe get a reformation where the convection is. there is a lot of vorticity there

[SFLcane]

Impressive burst there gatorcane..curious to what we find tomorrow morning. To a point I wish it would have gotten tangled up with DR but it looks like its going to stay away so if it can muster some convection before reaching the Bahamas we might have a problem in our hands.

[JaxGator]

Carnival Glory right in the middle of the heaviest Thunderstorm.

10 foot waves every 2 seconds.......... I feel sea sick.

http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shippo ... call=3FPS9

still just like before south of that boundary there are plenty of west winds... the carnival valor though was very close to the center and still showed wsw.. now has east wind..

hard to say but maybe get a reformation where the convection is. there is a lot of vorticity there

What are the odds that the NHC will see these measurements? They'll help for sure.

[bg1]

llc has turned nearly due west and is straight north of the eastern tip of HR.

What is HR? Been seeing this and I feel ignorant.

I think Honduras.

[Aric Dunn]

or it might do a small cyclonic loop and get pulled back to the convection. just have to wait and see.

[SouthFLTropics]

Quick observation from Port St. Lucie, Florida...been in an NE to E flow all day. Storms have threatened and tonight they have arrived. My weather station is recording a rain rate of 1.28in/h right now. Winds have been steady out of the East at 5.0 MPH with gusts to 15.0. It's like we have a funnel overhead right now. Sporadic lightning and very loud thunder.

[AutoPenalti]

We don't want another Fargo situation.