ATL: HERMINE - Models

[Aric Dunn]

turns earlier than 12z though still very similiar and just a little faster.

[SeGaBob]

And still strengthening

[paintplaye]

Looks like another florida landfall.

[TheStormExpert]

Likely major cane making landfall on Florida's Nature Coast just beyond 192hrs.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

id give my right arm to have something like that slam my coast of SoCal and wipe out the drought down here

[Hammy]

Is it pretty safe to toss the GFS runs at this point?

[lester]

Likely major cane making landfall on Florida's Nature Coast just beyond 192hrs.

a 978 mb cyclone would not be a major hurricane.

[SFLcane]

HWRF had like an Andrew 2

[Kingarabian]

Likely major cane making landfall on Florida's Nature Coast just beyond 192hrs.

a 978 mb cyclone would not be a major hurricane.

I'ts likely a borderline Major cane on high res.

[Aric Dunn]

Likely major cane making landfall on Florida's Nature Coast just beyond 192hrs.

a 978 mb cyclone would not be a major hurricane.

again due to resolution with what we have access to.. pressure likely lower 970's

[TheStormExpert]

Likely major cane making landfall on Florida's Nature Coast just beyond 192hrs.

a 978 mb cyclone would not be a major hurricane.

Higher res. Euro likely has lower pressure.

[ronyan]

Sharp turn up the SE atlantic coast

[SeGaBob]

Right over me at 216

[TheStormExpert]

Still a hurricane @ 216 hrs. in SE Georgia.

[Kingarabian]

969 mb on the high res Euro.

[stormhunter7]

One thing I noticed in the past, was the GFS didn't know how to handle a strong ridge that well and shows a vorticity "stuck" for a few days before it kicks it out. This time it has added a dying vortice from Fiona into the equation and stalls 99L longer. I doubt 99L will stick around that long in Bahamas and not explode due to shallow warm waters. It's looking likely that this system will make it to Bahamas, as for Florida it's still up in the air at this point I believe. Wednesday - Friday will have a better idea and better data to know about Florida. But with this strong ridge showing up, I don't see this escaping out to the NE seaboard as or right now, until middle of next week!

[Kingarabian]

Bottoms out at 965mb at 198hr.

[LarryWx]

I wouldn't need to water my grass again anytime soon with the rainfall that that would likely produce in SE GA.

[ronyan]

That would impact the outer banks pretty hard. Heading out to sea and strengthening at 240.

[USTropics]

Following the ensembles, models are becoming in better agreement on a potential track:

CMC ensembles:



GFS ensembles: