ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located about 650 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
have become more concentrated and better organized during the past
several hours. If this development trend continues, advisories
would be initiated on a tropical depression tonight or Wednesday.
This system is expected to move generally northwestward over the
open waters of the central Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Yellow Evan]

This is classifiable, and has been for several hours now IMO. Likely to become a hurricane as it recurves out to sea.

[Hammy]

There's the magic words.

If this development trend continues, advisories would be initiated on a tropical depression tonight or Wednesday.

[Kazmit]

Still not a TC

[Rail Dawg]

It's going to be classified shortly.

Those with the connections know what I mean.

(And there's a LOT of you lol!!)

[hurricanes1234]

Should be classified by 11 PM

That was quite fast!

[Caneman12]

Here is my 5 day forecast for this storm
6 Hours: 35 MPH Tropical depression heading Northwest at 15MPH
24 hours: 45 MPH Tropical storm heading WNW at 15 MPH
48 hours: 60 MPH tropical storm
72 hours 90 MpH hurricane weakening
96 hours 70 MPH tropical storm
120 hours 75 MPH hurricane

[Yellow Evan]

A intensifying rate of 1 T number per day is probably reasonable for the time being given the warm waters and low shear.

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

   AL, 98, 201608162345,  10, DVTS,         CI,  , 1200N,  3370W,      , 2,  25, 2,     ,  ,     ,    ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,    ,    , L,   SAB,  AS,   IM, 3, 1515 /////,      ,   , GOES13, LLCC, T, DT=1.5 BO CBND MET=1.5 PT=1.5 FTBO DT

[Agua]

Already headed NW. At 8 a.m. it was due west. Clearly a fish spinner.

[Kazmit]

Here is my 5 day forecast for this storm
6 Hours: 35 MPH Tropical depression heading Northwest at 15MPH
24 hours: 45 MPH Tropical storm heading WNW at 15 MPH
48 hours: 60 MPH tropical storm
72 hours 90 MpH hurricane weakening
96 hours 70 MPH tropical storm
120 hours 75 MPH hurricane

I hope so! C'mon Fiona, show me your best and become a 90 mph Cat 1 fish!

[Caneman12]

I think it will reach 90 MPH

[Hammy]

Huge difference in five hours on RAMMB loop.

[cycloneye]

As of 00:00 UTC Aug 17, 2016:


Location: 12.2°N 33.6°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 160 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 50 NM

[gatorcane]

Seems to be getting hit with some ENE shear or maybe a SAL surge

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[floridasun78]

Seems to be getting hit with some ENE shear or maybe a SAL surge

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

it look to me i dont see shear or SAL surge get it

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The environment looks favorable for the next 48 hours, and so 98L should become a moderate or high-end tropical storm. After that, increasing shear and a dry atmosphere should cause weakening and eventual degeneration. The GFS holds on to the storm throughout day 10, at which point it shows re-intensification, but this seems unlikely given the hostile conditions beforehand.

[NDG]

Looking good.

[Caneman12]

Looking good.

Yeah it just needs to keep the pace up

[weathaguyry]

Looking good.

I agree, now we play the waiting game and see if this gets upgraded at 11PM