ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Agreed, in fact there is a tight vorticity looking at the floater even with a thunderstorm that recently blew up over this vorticity a couple of hours ago. I would go with better than not chance something comes out of this too:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Alyono]

looks like they are going more with the Canadian, keeping it near the NE Caribbean

[Blinhart]

What are the odds of Fiona disintegrate into an open wave and this investment take in all the moisture from her and become a very large system? You can already see that this investment is ingesting some of the moisture from Fiona.

[p1nheadlarry]

Probably will trot wnw as it enters the w Atl before that movement is directed by the building ridge. I don't feel like the Euro forecasting the ULL off the S FL coast would be a big winner for the model, as others have pointed out it's had little luck in doing so. It is a broad circulation, so if the lower level vorticity signature remains as it enters that region, development is likely. NHC doesn't see much in short-term but the 3-5 day window it's likely.

[Bocadude85]

Up to 60%:

I'm actually a little surprised they increased the development chances, obviously they think conditions will be favorable for development.

[AutoPenalti]

LLC becoming better defined it looks like the last few frames of Satellite. How could this be without convection?

Didn't you hear? It's the newest craze!

[northjaxpro]

I think conditions for 99L will improve considerably once the system traverses pass about 55 degrees Longitude as it nears its approach to the NE Caribbean in the next few days. The environment should be much moisturer by that time.

[colbroe]

99L appears to be building heaving connectivity on the South side within the last few frames you can see it .Looks like it has started to get its mojo together ,however my concern it's the path it will take.

[colbroe]

A strong burst of convection has now popped up below 10 N hope this is not an indicator of rapid intesification.

[hohnywx]

Up to 60%:

I'm actually a little surprised they increased the development chances, obviously they think conditions will be favorable for development.

Impossible! The Euro says it won't develop. /sarcasm

Seriously, it's meteorology, not modelology. Trust the mets at the NHC and don't agonize over each model run.

[NDG]

I'm going to enjoy my weekend, 99L wouldn't be doing much over the next couple of days if not longer, dry mid level air has to really come down across the MDR for anything to develop over the next few days.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

Location: 12.0°N 38.0°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 100 NM

[floridasun78]

it look like 99l pulling moisture from Fiona look sat pic you see it

[floridasun78]

looking last loop look starting get moisture round area that it center

[MGC]

The Atlantic ahead of 99L is dry all the way to the Bahamas. I don't see conditions out ahead of 99L improving any time soon until it reaches the Western Atlantic......MGC

[floridasun78]

The Atlantic ahead of 99L is dry all the way to the Bahamas. I don't see conditions out ahead of 99L improving any time soon until it reaches the Western Atlantic......MGC

nhc dont see that way

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/767069190536695808

[Hammy]

This seems to be weakening even further today if anything, the rotation is not quite as defined as yesterday (the westerly inflow appears to be weakening) and it's almost completely void of convection. Given the subsiding air I'm genuinely not sure what the models that develop this are seeing.

[tarheelprogrammer]

This seems to be weakening even further today if anything, the rotation is not quite as defined as yesterday (the westerly inflow appears to be weakening) and it's almost completely void of convection. Given the subsiding air I'm genuinely not sure what the models that develop this are seeing.

I actually think the system is tightening up and convection will fire soon around the center. Just an opinion.

[AtlanticWind]

This seems to be weakening even further today if anything, the rotation is not quite as defined as yesterday (the westerly inflow appears to be weakening) and it's almost completely void of convection. Given the subsiding air I'm genuinely not sure what the models that develop this are seeing.

They are seeing down the road when conditions may be better,many systems like Katrina did not necessarily look good
Before they developed.