EPAC: LESTER - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

Looking at an ensemble probability product I created, this is BIG TROUBLE

Could strike all islands. Best bet is Big Island or Maui and then into Oahu

[Yellow Evan]

Lol nearing T7.0 (W not thick enough).

[galaxy401]

Will the cold waters from Madeline affect Lester?

[Ntxw]

This storm just won't quit. 130kts? Or can it push 140kts?! This looks almost as good as Marie was in 2014, just not the size

[Yellow Evan]

Easily T6.5. W on the south getting thicker. A few B spots away from DT=7.0.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 AUG 2016 Time : 230000 UTC
Lat : 17:43:17 N Lon : 135:48:49 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 946.4mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 23 km

Center Temp : +13.5C Cloud Region Temp : -68.6C

Scene Type : EYE

[Kingarabian]

Looking at an ensemble probability product I created, this is BIG TROUBLE

Could strike all islands. Best bet is Big Island or Maui and then into Oahu

Deterministic GFS ans Euro runs continue to be well north of their respective means.

[Alyono]

Looking at an ensemble probability product I created, this is BIG TROUBLE

Could strike all islands. Best bet is Big Island or Maui and then into Oahu

Deterministic GFS ans Euro runs continue to be well north of their respective means.

overdoing interaction with Madeline. The ensemble PDF is screaming this will hit the islands

[1900hurricane]

Just got out from class, totally wasn't expecting this. A raw DT of 7.0 seriously could be possible if analysis is done on the 2330Z frame.

[Ntxw]

Holy crap, can we get the recon to skip Madeline and go into Lester? boy curious what they would find...

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 AUG 2016 Time : 233000 UTC
Lat : 17:49:05 N Lon : 135:54:15 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 944.3mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.7 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km

Center Temp : +13.3C Cloud Region Temp : -71.0C

Scene Type : EYE

[Kingarabian]

SAB should be out with their numbers soon.

[Yellow Evan]

Clear cut T6.5.

[1900hurricane]

^ Yeah, no doubter there.

[Kingarabian]

Code: Select all

  31/0000 UTC   17.8N    136.0W       T6.5/6.5         LESTER -- East Pacific 

[gatorcane]

wow very nice looking hurricane. Hopefully it will stay away from Hawaii. Not looking good.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like about 125 kt right now to me. Maybe make a run at Cat 5?

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ23 KNES 310022
TCSENP

A. 13E (LESTER)

B. 31/0000Z

C. 17.8N

D. 136.0W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.5/6.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE EMBEDDED IN B AND SURROUNDED BY W RESULS IN A DT OF
6.5 WITH 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET IS 5.5 AND PT IS 6.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[Kingarabian]

Just look at how in the last few frames the cloud tops cooled considerably.

[Ntxw]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 AUG 2016 Time : 000000 UTC
Lat : 17:48:57 N Lon : 135:59:37 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 944.3mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.8 6.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km

Center Temp : +12.9C Cloud Region Temp : -71.4C

Scene Type : EYE

[Yellow Evan]

As high as constraints allow

Code: Select all

EP, 13, 201608302300,  10, DVTS,         CI,  , 1780N, 13600W,      , 1, 115, 2,  948, 2, DVRK,    ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,    ,    , E,  TAFB,  PW,   VI, 1, 6060 /////,      ,   , GOES13,  CSC, T,