ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Hurricaneman]

For one run.... 2 weeks away... ok.

you guys/gals maybe looking at the one run this morning but go back and look where the models were yesterday and the day before...you are correct that one run isnt a trend so dont look at one run, i dont

You can't pick and choose what to look at to fit your narrative of it heading towards you, the fact is there is no trend.

but I do think that around Wednesday may be when we have a good idea of where landfall will be

[Blown Away]

Being late Sept/Oct, W into CA a common track for low riders and it's not uncommon for systems to be plucked out of Caribbean abruptly on a N or NE track... No surprise here if 97l ends up east of 06z or swings back due W into CA... Smooth WNW track into Central or W GOM is low probability, not impossible... It's 10 days out!!

[KWT]

HWRF heading decently north and east of the GFS 06z run, close to the CMC in terms of location as it hits LA...

However hard to believe it when it has a near major in just 90hrs...and whilst things will get very condusive, that seems somewhat overoptimistic on strength

[HurricaneBelle]

Looks like that "all clear" or "dodged a bullet" mentioned upthread for SFL lasted about six hours.

[Frank2]

Seems we went through this a month ago with a GOM system that ended up being a Cat 1 at landfall - far short of what many models had forecast for the FL W coast. Models change from run to run and have not done well this year, for unknown reasons, though the GFS has been fairly reliable, and was more accurate one month ago that many others. Dry air and shear are still big factors, and unlikely to change for 97L...

[Ivanhater]

Expect more west shifts imo

[stormlover2013]

This is why I hate that people go from run to run and they stick with one run, guys nothing has developed..we aren't going to know what this system will do until 4-5 days before landfall more than likely, models have struggled big time this year until atleast 4-5 days out. We prob won't know anything till next weekend...

[stormlover2013]

And lol for whoever said this is a Trend lol...we haven't had a trend yet....

[northjaxpro]

This is why I hate that people go from run to run and they stick with one run, guys nothing has developed..we aren't going to know what this system will do until 4-5 days before landfall more than likely, models have struggled big time this year until atleast 4-5 days out. We prob won't know anything till next weekend...

Well stated and astute post!! This is exactly why I do not hone closely to the fine specifics of what the models are presenting in terms of the synoptic pattern until we are within 120 hours of the event. This has always been my general measuring stick, but to each their own.

[tolakram]

6Z GFS

[TheDreamTraveler]

Once this actually develops and is classified as a Tropical Depression then the models will have a way easier time in pinpointing where and what this system will do. So I wouldn't stress too much over these model runs until a few more days down the road. Still really interesting though and everyone should keep an eye on it.

[Kazmit]

Latest GFS run shows a track similar to Charley's.

[Ivanhater]

If you are in the gfs track now I would feel somewhat ok....I'm worried about the models in 4 to 5 days say

[sma10]

How likely is a tropical system plowing into South America to then abruptly get pulled Straight North as the Euro shows? Do troughs dig that far South in late September?

Hazel pulled that trick off around a similar time of year, of course that then bent back NW again afterwards. Very similar track upto 216hrs to the ECM as well.

If it avoids land there will be a great set-up aloft so if it gets a solid 72-96hrs over water and misses land in SA, its going to go blow up.

I think this is the most important first benchmark. Given where the system actually is currently, it needs to achieve enough latitude to avoid smashing into SA. If it spends any appreciable time over that landmass it will likely not have any long term plans.

[cycloneye]

Tracks are more north than the 06z.

[Kazmit]

Tracks are more north than the 06z.

That's better for this system's chances of developing. Here it's looking more likely that it won't crash into South America.

[Hurricaneman]

I have a feeling a lot of those models may be too far north, the initial movement is not in line with them

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Alyono]

Seems we went through this a month ago with a GOM system that ended up being a Cat 1 at landfall - far short of what many models had forecast for the FL W coast. Models change from run to run and have not done well this year, for unknown reasons, though the GFS has been fairly reliable, and was more accurate one month ago that many others. Dry air and shear are still big factors, and unlikely to change for 97L...

Use the environment not past performance. The biggest difference is the kelvin wave

[Dean4Storms]

About the only thing I would take away from the models right now is that this system will track into the Carib. Sea and intensify, from there the models are going to struggle and get less consistent as slightest changes with the westerlies pattern can result in big changes down stream with a deepening TC! It does appear some Carib. Islands will have to deal with a TC!

[ronjon]

Well if the US is lucky, it will make that sharp turn north like the Euro is predicting. However, it's 10 days out so it's watch and wait time the next week or so. More concerning are the strength forecasts as someone may be in for a major cane this season.