ATL: HERMINE - Models

[Hammy]

Bottoms out at 965mb at 198hr.

Second consecutive run at or near major status at landfall.

[TheStormExpert]

06z Model Guidance.

[La Breeze]

Sharp turn up the SE atlantic coast

What would cause such a sharp NE turn if it entered the Eastern GOM?

[northjaxpro]

So EURO has 99L passing through South or South-Central Florida westbound or w-sw depending upon the strength of the ridge. The ridge should be able to get the cyclone emerging out into the Northeast Gulf of Mexico near or just south of the Tampa Bay area. As time progresses, EURO is forecasting 99L to encounter a weakness in this massive ridge at about 192 hours out. The cyclone then intensifies and makes the hook n-ne across North Florida, making a second landfall either near or just north of Cedar Key as a possible Cat 2 to potentially a Cat 3 major.

Timing as always is going to be critical with regards to how fast the ridge breaks down and when and exactly where 99L finds the weakness. Timing always is the case with these cyclones, it never ceases to amaze me. This may be shaping up to be an amazing next 7-10 days.

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS running soon.

[Frank2]

GFS might be favoring a track over the larger islands - per this view it is possible: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif

[NDG]

A bad way to wake up and see that the Euro has been consistent on a FL landfall, no question about it unfortunately that the Euro has things under control. I noticed too that with Gaston being forecasted to recurve further east by the Euro it makes the ridge across the Carolinas bridge further east, unlike previous runs when it showed Gaston further west.

[NDG]

GFS might be favoring a track over the larger islands - per this view it is possible: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif

I doubt it, the weakness ahead of 99L is very pronounced, it should gain latitude as it nears the Lesser Antilles. It should gain some latitude over the next few days until it starts being influenced by the ridge over TN/NC.

[Dean4Storms]

ECM looked a little fast.

[RL3AO]

GFS might be favoring a track over the larger islands - per this view it is possible: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif

We will see. GFS still seems to be initializing too far south. Of course the center could easily develop on the southern edge too.

[Frank2]

Yep, I really think its the silent option the media has not mentioned....

[NDG]

Not much difference on the GFS through 90 hrs compared to its earlier run, still shows a very weak vorticity while the Euro has a much stronger vorticity by this same time.

[Kingarabian]

GFS looks weaker 90hrs out. Stronger ridge though it seems.

[Nederlander]

GFS might be favoring a track over the larger islands - per this view it is possible: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif

We will see. GFS still seems to be initializing too far south. Of course the center could easily develop on the southern edge too.

Thought about this too when looking at sat imagery this morning. It is definitely going to need to start gaining some latitude (and it should). A trek over central/western Hispaniola would do some serious damage to the core. It really just depends on where that center wants to develop.. Could alter track and intensity drastically...

[NDG]

Another thing to look at is that the GFS has Fiona lingering around longer and has 99L do not much until it is out of the way, which it does not make sense because 99L is a much larger system at this point.

[Nederlander]

Another thing to look at is that the GFS has Fiona lingering around longer and has 99L do not much until it is out of the way, which it does not make sense because 99L is a much larger system at this point.

You are correct. On top of that, Fiona is looking really bad this morning, I'd be surprised if she made it through the day without opening up...

[NDG]

GFS might be favoring a track over the larger islands - per this view it is possible: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif

We will see. GFS still seems to be initializing too far south. Of course the center could easily develop on the southern edge too.

http://i.imgur.com/msBwPfI.png

Thought about this too when looking at sat imagery this morning. It is definitely going to need to start gaining some latitude (and it should). A trek over central/western Hispaniola would do some serious damage to the core. It really just depends on where that center wants to develop.. Could alter track and intensity drastically...

The Global models usually do a very good job in a 48-72 hr forecast window when it comes to forecasting the low level vorticity of a system, take for instance Earl. Unless northerly shear is stronger than what the models can see and makes the mid level vorticity track further south, which what happened with Erika last year.

[Frank2]

GFS has performed well with several systems this season - perhaps why the NHC is wording the TWO so far...

[Kingarabian]

06z further west with 99L, over Florida. Let's see what it does in the GOM.

At least the synoptic steering is more inline with the Euro.

[NDG]

06z GFS is trash, IMO. It has little Fiona as the main player, lol.