ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[floridasun78]

It's getting there. I would give it another 24-36 hours to get out of this zone of 35-40 knots of shear and it will ramp up quickly. Hope those folks down there are taking this threat seriously. They won't have much time to prepare for this one.

its within my circle not exactly centered. i sometimes do that to show curvature the bands with the circle around the center.

who down their?

[AxaltaRacing24]

It's getting there. I would give it another 24-36 hours to get out of this zone of 35-40 knots of shear and it will ramp up quickly. Hope those folks down there are taking this threat seriously. They won't have much time to prepare for this one.

its within my circle not exactly centered. i sometimes do that to show curvature the bands with the circle around the center.

who down their?

Us in Florida

[txwatcher91]

Intense convection still building and expanding. It's possible the LLC could get sucked under this or build enough convection until it gets out of the extreme shear. I've seen this many times with storms over the years. FWIW the Euro and NAM both really begin development Saturday morning.

Also a large amount of lightning beginning to show up in this burst of convection.

[chaser1]

Quick observation from Port St. Lucie, Florida...been in an NE to E flow all day. Storms have threatened and tonight they have arrived. My weather station is recording a rain rate of 1.28in/h right now. Winds have been steady out of the East at 5.0 MPH with gusts to 15.0. It's like we have a funnel overhead right now. Sporadic lightning and very loud thunder.

Same here near Cocoa Beach although most of our wind/rain was this morning. I was wondering if it was coming from ex Fiona.

I heard the same from my daughter in Jensen Beach; said it felt "very tropical"

[hurricanehunter69]

After two days of being badly stretched out and elongated, It's starting to look much better to me. Check out that inflow tail wrapping around from the southwest! I'm interested in seeing if it successfully completes this process and develops another vigorous cyclonic envelop over the Bahamas? http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

MIMIC almost says extreme S Florida or the straits/Keys?Look a coupe degrees forward and the old front to the N the keys are a funnel for maybe the next 24hrs?

extrapolating it's movement on mimic does look like a S Florida impact. I would also side with the Euro solution of the ridge as well. Mimic also shows it wrapping up nicely right now. I'm deeply concerned and worried about the monster it could become in the gulf?

[abajan]

Out of curiosity, I googled to see if there were any live webcams on the Carnival Glory (due to it being in the midst of the thunderstorms currently occurring north of Puerto Rico) and this is the best I've found so far. Not ideal, because it refreshes every 30 seconds. If anyone can find a better link, do share.

[Javlin]

center is here. convection building but not towards the center. still up in the air if a new one forms with this deep convection or the current one does a cyclonic loop ..

That's were I was thinking looking at IF Shortwave but did not know it was MLC?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Aric Dunn]

center is here. convection building but not towards the center. still up in the air if a new one forms with this deep convection or the current one does a cyclonic loop ..

That's were I was thinking looking at IF Shortwave but did not know it was MLC?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

its much easier with RGB..

[Hurricaneman]

I must say this, the convection is really intense and starting to build north towards the center

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Bailey1777]

Just curious...have there been any studies on how much more accurate modeling is after the gulf stream does it's thing and those values are added in?

[Aric Dunn]

Just curious...have there been any studies on how much more accurate modeling is after the gulf stream does it's thing and those values are added in?

im sure there has been. I have not seen any though.

[AJC3]

Quick observation from Port St. Lucie, Florida...been in an NE to E flow all day. Storms have threatened and tonight they have arrived. My weather station is recording a rain rate of 1.28in/h right now. Winds have been steady out of the East at 5.0 MPH with gusts to 15.0. It's like we have a funnel overhead right now. Sporadic lightning and very loud thunder.

Same here near Cocoa Beach although most of our wind/rain was this morning. I was wondering if it was coming from ex Fiona.

Today's weather in east central Florida has nothing to do with Fiona, which has deformed into a trough well, well offshore.

What we had going on today was just moderately strong northeast flow picking up moisture and carrying the associated showers/storms into the area.

[Alyono]

Just curious...have there been any studies on how much more accurate modeling is after the gulf stream does it's thing and those values are added in?

This is an air force flight doing synoptic surveillance. The difference is this flies at 30,000 ft instead of 45,000 feet. No upper wind data will be available from the synoptic flight

[Blinhart]

Just curious...have there been any studies on how much more accurate modeling is after the gulf stream does it's thing and those values are added in?

This is an air force flight doing synoptic surveillance. The difference is this flies at 30,000 ft instead of 45,000 feet. No upper wind data will be available from the synoptic flight

What about the gulfstream that flew around Gaston and the recon from today will that information be put into the models for tonight or tomorrow morning? And did Recon (if it came from Biloxi) do drops in the GoM before getting into this system?

[SouthFLTropics]

I don't believe they flew a Gulfstream out to Gaston...if I'm not mistaken I think it was a GlobalHawk drone flight.

[blazess556]

3:09 UTC ASCAT data tonight reveals 99L still lacks a defined low-level circulation, but it is less elongated than this afternoon.

[Blinhart]

I don't believe they flew a Gulfstream out to Gaston...if I'm not mistaken I think it was a GlobalHawk drone flight.

Ok, I made a mistake GlobalHawk not Gulfstream.

[bg1]

Just curious...have there been any studies on how much more accurate modeling is after the gulf stream does it's thing and those values are added in?

I don't know, but I do remember the major models nailing Sandy's out-of-the-ordinary track four days out after the data went in. It also greatly eased the Joaquin headache.

[OntarioEggplant]

Wow at 30 hrs the 00Z GFS actually closes the low. That's new.

[Evil Jeremy]

Wow at 30 hrs the 00Z GFS actually closes the low. That's new.

And opens it back up at 36hrs