ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[OntarioEggplant]

GFS a good bit north and east of previous run. Last two runs have done this...eastward trend so far today from GFS. Doesn't mean the end result will be east, but certainly implies it.

The "eastward trend" is both due to an incorrect initialization too far north and the slower movement. Otherwise this would be nearly identical to 00z.

see my post before. Do NOT touch the vortex position, you only mess everything up if you shift the vortex to the best track position

Wrong is still wrong.

[chris_fit]

While the 12Z GFS is east, the turn seems more gradual and not a 90 degree change in direction.

[MississippiWx]

GFS a good bit north and east of previous run. Last two runs have done this...eastward trend so far today from GFS. Doesn't mean the end result will be east, but certainly implies it.

The "eastward trend" is both due to an incorrect initialization too far north and the slower movement. Otherwise this would be nearly identical to 00z.

Slower movement could be correct. Who knows...just watch trends. A slower movement initially seems to cause a turn to the north farther east. However, in the longer term a slow motion once in the West-Central Caribbean would allow for a bend to the west later in the forecast with building heights to the north. Kind of an odd situation, but it seems that it needs to go fast initially, slow later to impact the US.

[WeatherEmperor]

All I have to say is we are well within the timeframe of an epic bust taking place. The Gfs continues to do what it wants and the Euro does something very different. Big bustation alert for one of these models...


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[gatorcane]

HUGE differences between the GFS and ECMWF even at hour 72 now.

[TheStormExpert]

All I have to say is we are well within the timeframe of an epic bust taking place. The Gfs continues to do what it wants and the Euro does something very different. Big bustation alert for one of these models...


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I think the Euro is about to bust BIG TIME! The GFS has just been too persistent with it's solution.

[centuryv58]

All I have to say is we are well within the timeframe of an epic bust taking place. The Gfs continues to do what it wants and the Euro does something very different. Big bustation alert for one of these models...


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I think the Euro is about to bust BIG TIME! The GFS has just been too persistent with it's solution.

Why not a GFS bust?

[PTrackerLA]

All I have to say is we are well within the timeframe of an epic bust taking place. The Gfs continues to do what it wants and the Euro does something very different. Big bustation alert for one of these models...


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I think the Euro is about to bust BIG TIME! The GFS has just been too persistent with it's solution.

I'm starting to think that way too. Euro just hasn't been the same this year...we'll see.

[ronyan]

12z GFS not moving this true north, significant westward component as it tracks over Haiti. My prediction is it will not miss the EC.

[Hamanard]

The "eastward trend" is both due to an incorrect initialization too far north and the slower movement. Otherwise this would be nearly identical to 00z.

see my post before. Do NOT touch the vortex position, you only mess everything up if you shift the vortex to the best track position

Wrong is still wrong.

How is it wrong if there's empirical evidence suggesting otherwise?

[OntarioEggplant]

The GFS track was a bust for Hermine, so there really is nothing showing it is superior to the Euro.

[chris_fit]

12z GFS not moving this true north, significant westward component as it tracks over Haiti. My prediction is it will not miss the EC.

Just noticed this too - def W component as it moves north unlike the past runs

[TheStormExpert]

All I have to say is we are well within the timeframe of an epic bust taking place. The Gfs continues to do what it wants and the Euro does something very different. Big bustation alert for one of these models...


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I think the Euro is about to bust BIG TIME! The GFS has just been too persistent with it's solution.

Why not a GFS bust?

The GFS has been too persistent through 5 days, whereas the Euro is not.

[centuryv58]

I think the Euro is about to bust BIG TIME! The GFS has just been too persistent with it's solution.

Why not a GFS bust?

The GFS has been too persistent through 5 days, whereas the Euro is not.

Not a good reason, but lets wait and see.

[OntarioEggplant]

see my post before. Do NOT touch the vortex position, you only mess everything up if you shift the vortex to the best track position

Wrong is still wrong.

How is it wrong if there's empirical evidence suggesting otherwise?

Note he's still saying the initial position is wrong. A wrong initial position most certainly affects the future path as we are seeing.

[BensonTCwatcher]

major difference in pattern over Eastern Canada this run. Opens a weakness - will be out to sea.

- After Bahamas

[KWT]

Still got some westward motion on the northerly, especially over Haiti.

A bit further east this run, but a fair chance the intial location being off may make a slight difference, essentially a extra degree further south with any westward of north motion is going to mean it nudges just that bit more west and small amounts make BIG differences for those islands.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Except for a little eastward wobble the 12z and 6z GFS runs were virtually identical including the setup it shows at 108 hrs. I expect a similar result.

[OntarioEggplant]

major difference in pattern over Eastern Canada this run. Opens a weakness - will be out to sea.

- After Bahamas

What? There is literally very little difference from the past two runs on that. If anything it's between the 00Z and 06Z in strength.

[RL3AO]

Wrong is still wrong.

How is it wrong if there's empirical evidence suggesting otherwise?

Note he's still saying the initial position is wrong. A wrong initial position most certainly affects the future path as we are seeing.

You're misunderstanding what he was saying. He said research has shown that by moving the model initialized vortex to wherever the NHC analyzes it may cause a degradation in forecast accuracy. So much goes into initializing the 0 hour conditions in a global model that just haphazardly shifting a low level vortex around my cause unintended consequences during the run. Maybe you're better off having the initial error and letting the model run with what it initialized with.