ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

The convection is expanding around the vortex we've been following all day, this could be the make or break for this system for hurricane landfall in Florida, if the convection wanes tomorrow when recon gets there I expect no more than a tropical storm but if the convection maintains and grows that could be a very dangerous situation for south and or central Florida

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Aric Dunn]

long range radar hitting at some spotty convection trying to build around center. can see some rotation to the storm motions.

[txwatcher91]

As mentioned earlier it appears the convection is expanding towards the LLC and extremely cold cloud tops. If it continues through the morning it should begin to enter a more favorable environment Friday and Saturday.

[HurriGuy]

In my opinion, it looks like the LLC has slowed down considerably. Convection looks to be racing towards it too. Time will tell...

[floridasun78]

As mentioned earlier it appears the convection is expanding towards the LLC and extremely cold cloud tops. If it continues through the morning it should begin to enter a more favorable environment Friday and Saturday.

Thursday big day nhc will have make mind if go hurr watch or ts watch when plane go in report back how look in morning

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Fego]

Floaters seem to be up to an hour delayed from what you're seeing. What source are you using?

Rammb floater:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

or

for better night time...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

That's a new for me Aric. I thought this one (short microwaveinfrared) was the best for night time.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Blinhart]

Looks like a Wave right now, don't see any circulation.

[Aric Dunn]

Rammb floater:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

or

for better night time...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

That's a new for me Aric. I thought this one (short microwaveinfrared) was the best for night time.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

typically it is. the color scheme was cahnged a few years back and its not as good. RGB works way better. the layers are coloroed.

[tolakram]

typically it is. the color scheme was cahnged a few years back and its not as good. RGB works way better. the layers are coloroed.

That is nice, I had no idea RGB worked at night but it sure does.

I wish I could get that on the higher rez views.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah low level cloud deck on satellite is thickening on the east and north side.. radar also showing for the first time convection building near the center.. probably see a seperate burst closer to the center if it has enough convergence.

[Aric Dunn]

cmc is on crack. did you all notice gaston hitting NC the going SE lol..

[HurriGuy]

cmc is on crack. did you all notice gaston hitting NC the going SE lol..

that is not Gaston hitting in the CMC. II believe its Fiona remnants or some other feature that won't happen

[MississippiWx]

cmc is on crack. did you all notice gaston hitting NC the going SE lol..

Actually ex-Fiona is the one hitting NC. Lol

[Aric Dunn]

cmc is on crack. did you all notice gaston hitting NC the going SE lol..

that is not Gaston hitting in the CMC. II believe its Fiona remnants or some other feature that won't happen

yeah I was looking at the SE region and not whole atlantic at first it looked like it was gaston..

[ronyan]

cmc is on crack. did you all notice gaston hitting NC the going SE lol..

You can see Gaston behind that system, it's Ex-Fiona again! I have a feeling there are going to be a lot of jokes going around meteorological circles about Fiona after all of this.

[Aric Dunn]

convection for the first time develpoing over the LLC.. that little bubble on the NW side of the main convective ball..

[Bocadude85]

Are we sure that the vort over Hispaniola isn't actually the dominant feature? Following the 0Z HWRF it has a TS heading www then at hour 18 it focuses in on a low over Haiti then starts tracking that low at hour 27..

[Blinhart]

Are we sure that the vort over Hispaniola isn't actually the dominant feature? Following the 0Z HWRF it has a TS heading www then at hour 18 it focuses in on a low over Haiti then starts tracking that low at hour 27..

I was wondering the same thing, also I was wondering if there is any time in history that a system like this has broken off into 2 separate systems one going on a due West path south of the Islands and one going NW through the Bahamas? This system is just so confusing and the weather patterns are so weird.

[AutoPenalti]

Are we sure that the vort over Hispaniola isn't actually the dominant feature? Following the 0Z HWRF it has a TS heading www then at hour 18 it focuses in on a low over Haiti then starts tracking that low at hour 27..

Focus on the satellite. Don't focus on the models. They are complete garbage right now. Remember that models
change randomly for different variables that come into play that WE don't see. Satellite imagery shows us what's going on right now. If convection wanes after DMAX then it's going to struggle to intensify.

[RL3AO]

The dominant system is north of PR. I think most of that convection near Hispaniola is mostly upslope caused.