ATL: HERMINE - Models

[PTrackerLA]

Just when I thought the GFS was trying to trend toward the Euro on the 06z run. I think of Debby 2012 and Joaquin 2015 right now and I don't know which model is going to end up being correct.

[tolakram]

12Z GFS washes out most of the vorticity by 114 hours, just as the remnants of Fiona come down to cross Florida. Either this is a hell of a coup or the confusion between the two is causing a serious calculation error.

[Bocadude85]

The ridge is stronger this run then on the 6Z

[WeatherEmperor]

12Z GFS washes out most of the vorticity by 114 hours, just as the remnants of Fiona come down to cross Florida. Either this is a hell of a coup or the confusion between the two is causing a serious calculation error.

I agree so much with this. The truth must be revealed soon. We as watchers must know what will really happen

[Aric Dunn]

geezz. at least the ridging is in place like the rest of the models.. everything else is very odd. If recon closes off a circ this early that might help the GFS resolve these issues.

[stormlover2013]

ridging looks stronger dunn, what do you think?

[DESTRUCTION5]

This is either going to be an EPIC WIN for GFS or an EPIC FAIL. Never seen the complete opposite scenarios like this from ECMWF and GFS.

[chris_fit]

This is either going to be an EPIC WIN for GFS or an EPIC FAIL. Never seen the complete opposite scenarios like this from ECMWF and GFS.

Joaquin last year

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/768119254038159360

[AdamFirst]

FIX YOUR MODEL, UCCELINI!

Junk run, you think?

[Aric Dunn]

ridging looks stronger dunn, what do you think?

have not compared the other runs or models. looks pretty much the same though.

[Siker]

UKMET west:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 17.7N 62.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.08.2016 24 17.7N 62.7W 1009 29
0000UTC 25.08.2016 36 19.1N 65.8W 1007 31
1200UTC 25.08.2016 48 20.6N 69.1W 1007 35
0000UTC 26.08.2016 60 22.1N 71.9W 1007 31
1200UTC 26.08.2016 72 23.1N 73.8W 1007 30
0000UTC 27.08.2016 84 24.1N 75.5W 1006 29
1200UTC 27.08.2016 96 25.2N 77.1W 1004 37
0000UTC 28.08.2016 108 26.2N 79.2W 1001 39
1200UTC 28.08.2016 120 27.3N 81.8W 1003 28
0000UTC 29.08.2016 132 28.4N 84.6W 995 45
1200UTC 29.08.2016 144 29.5N 87.4W 985 58

[Ntxw]

This is either going to be an EPIC WIN for GFS or an EPIC FAIL. Never seen the complete opposite scenarios like this from ECMWF and GFS.

Joaquin last year

And for a time Erika too. I forgot which models did what but some where blowing her up in the Bahamas and that didn't materialize either. She took the path through the greater Antilles.

[Dylan]

12Z GFS washes out most of the vorticity by 114 hours, just as the remnants of Fiona come down to cross Florida. Either this is a hell of a coup or the confusion between the two is causing a serious calculation error.

Exactly.

But if we are going to use this argument, we have to give the benefit of the doubt to the ECMWF, which calculates this equations more frequently over more areas of space compared to the GFS. Basically meaning that because of the ECMWF's computer power superiority, it can see smaller mechanisms more efficiently than the GFS.

[Bocadude85]

UKMET west:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 17.7N 62.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.08.2016 24 17.7N 62.7W 1009 29
0000UTC 25.08.2016 36 19.1N 65.8W 1007 31
1200UTC 25.08.2016 48 20.6N 69.1W 1007 35
0000UTC 26.08.2016 60 22.1N 71.9W 1007 31
1200UTC 26.08.2016 72 23.1N 73.8W 1007 30
0000UTC 27.08.2016 84 24.1N 75.5W 1006 29
1200UTC 27.08.2016 96 25.2N 77.1W 1004 37
0000UTC 28.08.2016 108 26.2N 79.2W 1001 39
1200UTC 28.08.2016 120 27.3N 81.8W 1003 28
0000UTC 29.08.2016 132 28.4N 84.6W 995 45
1200UTC 29.08.2016 144 29.5N 87.4W 985 58

Thats quite a bit further southwest from the 0Z... that has landfall in Palm Beach County as a tropical storm

[NDG]

What I see with the GFS is that no. 1 it has Fiona's vorticity stronger at the end of the week versus 99L so it makes 99L get drawn into Fiona, no. 2 it has two ULL's near 99L real close to 99L creating a very bad shear environment for 99L.
Very different UL environment over the Bahamas to that of the Euro, that's for sure.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

More importantly im watching the ridge on the GFS. Clearly these models have different ideas about this storm. Ridge is stronger on GFS

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like UKMET wants to cross Florida as a TS and has a cat 1 possibly heading towards the MS/AL border area by day 6. Westward shift and stronger than 00z.

[bohaiboy]

A local private weather service for Houston has a storm in the eastern GoM, currently tracking as Invest 99, but could also be Fiona. Just needs to stay away from south Louisiana.

[windnrain]

I'm too used to watching GFS fail. If I had money to put on it, I'd take 99-1 odds.