ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

what part west coast will see watch?

The NHC seems like they like to weight the breakpoints toward CWA boundaries. My guess would be Suwannee river to bonita beach (Ruskin's CWA coast)...it fits the storm track keeps everything in one CWA.

Just to be clear, TC watches and warnings are coordinated and finalized with and by NHC and the local WFOs.

I figured that was the case and it makes perfect sense.

[floridasun78]

AJC what miami service wrote their Discussion :Regardless of the classification of this event, the major impacts
to southern Florida are expected to be heavy rain/flooding,
strong winds over the Gulf waters, and the potential for strong
thunderstorms that could produce tornadoes. Anyone with interests
in southern Florida should monitor the progress of this system
over the next several days at the event unfolds. Sunday will be an
important day to follow the forecast evolution and make sure you
have your ready kit as conditions will begin to deteriorate on
Monday.
ion what that mean?

[Yellow Evan]

Looking solely at visible, center appears to be 20.8N 85.6W, at least for now.

[AJC3]

The NHC seems like they like to weight the breakpoints toward CWA boundaries. My guess would be Suwannee river to bonita beach (Ruskin's CWA coast)...it fits the storm track keeps everything in one CWA.

Just to be clear, TC watches and warnings are coordinated and finalized with and by NHC and the local WFOs.

I figured that was the case and it makes perfect sense.

Yup. And the county EM's actually have some influence upon what the local WFO will propose. For example, in our CWA, we have a breakpoint at Cape Canaveral that essentiallly won't ever be used because the county EMO doesn't want to have only part of the county in a TC Watch/Warning.

[psyclone]

Very interesting...Brevard county has a lot boatload of coastline. I know the Suwannee River is used quite a bit. it separates Levy county from Dixie county which also happens to represent the border between the Gang in Ruskin and the folks up in TLH.

[AJC3]

:uarrow: Very interesting...Brevard county has a lot boatload of coastline. I know the Suwannee River is used quite a bit. it separates Levy county from Dixie county which also happens to represent the border between the Gang in Ruskin and the folks up in TLH.

Brevard is about 70 miles north to south. In practice, you'll see either Sebastian Inlet or the Volusia/Brevard County line used as a breakpoint.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/breakpoints/

[AJC3]

AJC what miami service wrote their Discussion :Regardless of the classification of this event, the major impacts
to southern Florida are expected to be heavy rain/flooding,
strong winds over the Gulf waters, and the potential for strong
thunderstorms that could produce tornadoes. Anyone with interests
in southern Florida should monitor the progress of this system
over the next several days at the event unfolds. Sunday will be an
important day to follow the forecast evolution and make sure you
have your ready kit as conditions will begin to deteriorate on
Monday.
ion what that mean?

I'm having a hard time understanding what you're asking. Their message is pretty self-explanatory.

[floridasun78]

AJC what miami service wrote their Discussion :Regardless of the classification of this event, the major impacts
to southern Florida are expected to be heavy rain/flooding,
strong winds over the Gulf waters, and the potential for strong
thunderstorms that could produce tornadoes. Anyone with interests
in southern Florida should monitor the progress of this system
over the next several days at the event unfolds. Sunday will be an
important day to follow the forecast evolution and make sure you
have your ready kit as conditions will begin to deteriorate on
Monday.
ion what that mean?

I'm having a hard time understanding what you're asking. Their message is pretty self-explanatory.

their saying look my hurr kit?

[psyclone]

:uarrow: Very interesting...Brevard county has a lot boatload of coastline. I know the Suwannee River is used quite a bit. it separates Levy county from Dixie county which also happens to represent the border between the Gang in Ruskin and the folks up in TLH.

Brevard is about 70 miles north to south. In practice, you'll see either Sebastian Inlet or the Volusia/Brevard County line used as a breakpoint.

You've provided the kind of insight I crave. It has long been apparent to me that not all breakpoints are created equal...some are used with far greater frequency than others..CWA borders and standard marine leg boundaries seem to "hit" more frequently...at least in my observational experience. And of course it makes perfect sense with regard to forecast continuity.

[AJC3]

their saying look my hurr kit?

You should always have a hurricane kit ready if you live in a hurricane prone state such as Florida. Systems such as this, even though it might wind up being no more than a weak to moderate tropical storm, have their associated hazards, such as flooding and tornadoes. The west coast of Florida is also quite prone to storm surge. What they mean is have your kit ready, just in case.

http://www.redcross.org/images/MEDIA_Cu ... ricane.pdf

[floridasun78]

You should always have a hurricane kit ready if you live in a hurricane prone state such as Florida. Systems such as this, even though it might wind up being no more than a weak to moderate tropical storm, have their associated hazards, such as flooding and tornadoes. The west coast of Florida is also quite prone to storm surge. What they mean is have your kit ready, just in case.

http://www.redcross.org/images/MEDIA_Cu ... ricane.pdf

what i trying understand will south fl see tropical storm wind if get to be ts?

[HurricaneEric]

Is it just me or does the system look much more disorganized than earlier? To my untrained eye I'd say it hasn't really progressed at all.

[Evil Jeremy]

How much faith should we place in the 00z models, given they are initializing with the west fix point (while the disturbance re-centers ENE)

[AJC3]

what i trying understand will south fl see tropical storm wind if get to be ts?

Too early to say. It's possible, especially for the immediate southwest coast. Probably so much for the southeast coast, but you should pay attention to your local forecast.

[floridasun78]

what i trying understand will south fl see tropical storm wind if get to be ts?

Too early to say. It's possible, especially for the immediate southwest coast. Probably so much for the southeast coast, but you should pay attention to your local forecast.

ok i will ty for your information

[HurricaneEric]

what i trying understand will south fl see tropical storm wind if get to be ts?

Probably in the form of wind gusts from the squalls, but nothing sustained I don't think. Also depends what you mean by South FL. Miami? Naples?

[Evil Jeremy]

Is it just me or does the system look much more disorganized than earlier? To my untrained eye I'd say it hasn't really progressed at all.

This will be a messy system for it's entire lifespan. Could get ugly once the front swoops it up. That said, it looks fine to me, considering it's still cooking. Looks to me like rotation is cranking up around 19.5N, 85W

Also, welcome to the forum!

[floridasun78]

what i trying understand will south fl see tropical storm wind if get to be ts?

Probably in the form of wind gusts from the squalls, but nothing sustained I don't think. Also depends what you mean by South FL. Miami? Naples?

i saying in miami national weather office here telling us review our kit incase

[Evil Jeremy]

what i trying understand will south fl see tropical storm wind if get to be ts?

Probably in the form of wind gusts from the squalls, but nothing sustained I don't think. Also depends what you mean by South FL. Miami? Naples?

i saying in miami national weather office here telling us review our kit incase

Make sure you have the basics. For example, flashlights and batteries. Might not take much to knock out power. And always a good idea to replenish your Hurricane kit this time of year anyways.

[HurricaneEric]

Is it just me or does the system look much more disorganized than earlier? To my untrained eye I'd say it hasn't really progressed at all.

This will be a messy system for it's entire lifespan. Could get ugly once the front swoops it up. That said, it looks fine to me, considering it's still cooking. Looks to me like rotation is cranking up around 19.5N, 85W

Also, welcome to the forum!

Thanks for the welcome! Been a reader of these forums for a little over a year now haha.

what i trying understand will south fl see tropical storm wind if get to be ts?

Probably in the form of wind gusts from the squalls, but nothing sustained I don't think. Also depends what you mean by South FL. Miami? Naples?

i saying in miami national weather office here telling us review our kit incase

In that case I'd say just wind gusts from the squalls then. Don't think we'll get any sustained TS force winds at all from this system.

EDIT: Although, yes you should be cautious still. Any valuable stuff you may have outdoors (like a pet for example) would be better off indoors in case of a tornado or really severe thunderstorm.