WPAC: NEPARTAK - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Is a cat 5 and track is more left.

 https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/750506587777740801

[1900hurricane]

Thanks to himawari satellite the pinhole eye is better resolved. Eye temperature is now above 20C.

2016JUL06 010000 7.3 909.5 149.0 7.3 7.2 7.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 20.50 -78.83 EYE 12 IR 57.4 18.88 -129.82 COMBO HIM-8 25.5

I bet the warmest pixels are being picked up in the southeast corner of the eye when taking into account the viewing angle, where it appears the ocean can be seen through the low clouds. On the old MTSAT with a more coarse resolution, those pixels would likely have to be shared with the low clouds adjacent to the western eyewall or even the cold tops of the southeaster eyewall.



Of course, the visible imagery from the floater window like the image above is of an even higher resolution than the normal Himawari-8 IR.

[CrazyC83]

I'd definitely say at least 150 kt based on the ADT and other data. But a case could be made for a bit higher.

[1900hurricane]

What I'm really impressed with is how cold the CDO is remaining in the daylight. The cold medium greys are really holding their ground.

[wxmann_91]

Nothing important for me to say or analyze at the moment, I'm just taking in the early morning visible imagery.

Where are you getting these neat images, 1900hurricane?

[1900hurricane]

Nothing important for me to say or analyze at the moment, I'm just taking in the early morning visible imagery.

Where are you getting these neat images, 1900hurricane?

I'm getting them from JMA's Himawari-8 page for the most part. That particular image is from the Target Area, which is near the bottom of the list on the main page. RAMMB's Himawari page is also quite good, and where I got the vis shot I posted on this page. That one is Rapid Scan Floater 2, which is the same shot as the Target Area on the JMA page, but a little more zoomed in.

[1900hurricane]

That eye temp is something else.

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UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm
 
Current Intensity Analysis
 


                     UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.2.1               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  06 JUL 2016    Time :   013000 UTC
      Lat :   18:57:00 N     Lon :  129:35:48 E

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                7.3 / 909.5mb/149.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                7.3     7.3     7.3

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

 Center Temp : +22.6C    Cloud Region Temp : -79.1C

 Scene Type : EYE 

 Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

 Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC 
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method 

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

 C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii :  143km
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1008mb

 Satellite Name :   HIM-8
 Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.7 degrees


[Yellow Evan]

This is probably nearing 165 or 170 knots. That's the warmest eye measured by ADT, right?

[wxmann_91]

I'm getting them from JMA's Himawari-8 page for the most part. That particular image is from the Target Area, which is near the bottom of the list on the main page. RAMMB's Himawari page is also quite good, and where I got the vis shot I posted on this page. That one is Rapid Scan Floater 2, which is the same shot as the Target Area on the JMA page, but a little more zoomed in.

Thanks! Exactly what I was looking for (I missed the target area link on the JMA website). I forgot I RT'ed you on twitter too, lol.

[stormwise]

Its not easy to guesstimate, this looks to me to be @ a similar intensity as Winston was in the shem 160kt. Without a recon i would not go any higher.

[1900hurricane]

This is probably nearing 165 or 170 knots. That's the warmest eye measured by ADT, right?

MTSAT-1R had some warmer, but I think it had a problem with dropping some spurious warm pixels. Cimaron '06 might be the biggest offender (although there were many bad ones in 2006 and 2007) and I previously pointed out a case with Jangmi '08 on Twitter.

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/659906379386261504

[1900hurricane]

I wonder how long Nepartak can hold out before eyewall replacement begins. The Metop-B pass showed some early signs.

[CrazyC83]

This is probably nearing 165 or 170 knots. That's the warmest eye measured by ADT, right?

MTSAT-1R had some warmer, but I think it had a problem with dropping some spurious warm pixels. Cimaron '06 might be the biggest offender (although there were many bad ones in 2006 and 2007) and I previously pointed out a case with Jangmi '08 on Twitter.

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/659906379386261504

Jangmi had Recon at that time which I believe supported 150 kt.

[Yellow Evan]

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             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  06 JUL 2016    Time :   020000 UTC
      Lat :   19:01:00 N     Lon :  129:28:45 E

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                7.3 / 909.5mb/149.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                7.2     7.3     7.3

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

 Center Temp : +23.0C    Cloud Region Temp : -78.8C

 Scene Type : EYE

[Yellow Evan]

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WP, 02, 201607060230,  10, DVTS,         CI,  , 1900N, 12930E,      , 1, 155, 2,     ,  ,     ,    ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,    ,    , W,  KNES,  JK,  VIM, 1, 7575 /////,      ,   ,       , LLCC, T, DT=7.5 BO EYE  MET=6.5 PT=7.0 FTBO DT

[1900hurricane]

JTWC remains at 7.5.

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TPPN10 PGTW 060255

A. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (NEPARTAK)

B. 06/0230Z

C. 19.02N

D. 129.36E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.5/7.5/D3.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT OF
7.5. MET YIELDS A 6.5 WHILE THE PT YIELDS AND INTENSITY OF 7.5.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   05/2247Z  18.45N  130.50E  SSMS


   DREW

[1900hurricane]

There is actually nearly a cold dark grey ring now.

[stormwise]

Taiwan mountains will deal with this system as they always do. Nothing ever is match the destructive core will be annihilated.

[Yellow Evan]

[NotoSans]

What I'm really impressed with is how cold the CDO is remaining in the daylight. The cold medium greys are really holding their ground.

Agreed. Cloud top is still cooling which is indeed very impressive. I would go with 165 kt right now.