ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

I think it is starting to maybe trying to organize, we have some "banding" clouds setting up on the S and E side and the vorticity seems to be quite vigorous. Should be moving into SSTs in the mid to upper 80s within the next 24 hours or so, my bet is that overnight tonight we will see a massive flare up in convection as it hits those warmer SSTs plus convection seems to build better at night with this system so far.

[PTrackerLA]

All that convection over Hispanola will probably have to die out before the LLC would be able to generate much of anything.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/768814040835584000

[poof121]

Anyone heard if they've asked the weather offices to collect soundings more often to sample the High over the southeast?

[Gustywind]

Fwd: Saba
•By Gert van Dijken <gert at vandijken.com>
•Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2016 07:44:29 -0700
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/saba.shtml

Interresting report from the small island of Saba. Very strong gustywinds have been reported during passing squalls.

From: Lou vin hassell
Date: Thu, Aug 25, 2016 at 7:13 AM
Subject: Saba




Good day,

As the strong Tropical wave passed our area wind gusts of 40 to 68 mph were recorded at the airport during the passing of squalls.

Rain varied in different locations but at the airport 1.65 " fell at that location.

No damage to talk about apart from some branches, leaves and a few Trees down.


Vinny

[SFLcane]

For SFL Critical days friday into Saturday

[AdamFirst]

Anyone heard if they've asked the weather offices to collect soundings more often to sample the High over the southeast?

The Gulfstream plane is doing a high altitude mission today - but I'm not sure about individual soundings

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/768820132919386112

[La Sirena]

For SFL Critical days friday into Saturday

Agreed! We put up our remaining shutters except for the 4 sets for French doors. Did a quick pickup through the yard, too. It worries me a lot that there may be little to no time for those that need to head to the mainland (not that traffic isn't always an issue on US 1). At the very least I'm anticipating some good wind and heavy rains....or worse.

[stormlover2013]

what does that mean cyclone?

[Tireman4]

 https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/768820132919386112

That is one stout ridge. Gracious

[tarheelprogrammer]

what does that mean cyclone?

Ridging is very strong and not going to be easily weakened.

[poof121]

I've heard in the past they've asked the offices to do them every six hours instead of every 12 hours ahead of previous storms.

[cycloneye]

what does that mean cyclone?

Means whatever becomes of 99L will be steered to the GOM as ridge is strong.

[SouthFLTropics]

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong but to me it appears that along with the high bordered right along Lake Okeechobee there also appears to be an ULL sinking south near the Florida/Georgia border. If that is the case will this inhibit development or will it setup to provide an outflow channel and aid development?

[Tireman4]

what does that mean cyclone?

Means whatever becomes of 99L will be steered to the GOM as ridge is strong.

Like bouncing around ball off of a wall. Lol

[tolakram]

30 frame WV loop. Not sure that's an ULL.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21&lon=-72&info=wv&zoom=4&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=wv1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/edvalleewx/status/768818106466721792

[Mouton]

Albeit I am a rank amateur and one should be only guided by alerts from the NHC and local meteorologists, I think it should be close to the time the NHC should consider tropical storm watches for the area of Florida south of Palm Beach to north of Naples on the west coast including the upper keys. We are coming up on a weekend and admittedly by their 48 hour outlook, this could be a named system in 48 hours. IMO, the distinction between a low grade TS and a rigorous open wave is not significant enough to await the exact moment especially given the fact there has been little activitiy in this area in the past ten years with many new yankees completely unaware of the effects of these storms. I can only surmise the NHC believes the DR is going to destroy this storm or inhibit it enough that nothing happens till monday, or that the south moving ridge will push it SW.

Lets consider this, Andrew at 66W was 1000MB. at 74W it was circa 930MB, 2+ days later. While this is not a TS as was Andrew, that storm showed what can happen in a super charged environment. Andrew was different in that it was farther north at this time and began a WSW run due to a strong HP system to the north.

[BucMan2]

On the European EPS it shows the 594 Ridge but what will make it retreat as it shows allowing 99L to move north and then NE?