ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/768832881422577665

Interesting that SHIPS starts to show shear drop to less than 15 knots in 24-36 hours..right around the time the models start to intensify 99L so you could say 99L so far is following what the models were forecasting

This is an opinion only; please consult NHC and other government weather sources for information

[GeneratorPower]

I have forgotten what times of day DMAX and DMIN occur. Can anyone help me out?

[Siker]

I have forgotten what times of day DMAX and DMIN occur. Can anyone help me out?

DMIN is shortly after sunset, DMAX is shortly after sunrise.

[cycloneye]

Here is the Plan of the day for Friday and Saturday.No Gomzo yet.Friday's mission departs at 7:45 AM EDT.

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT THU 25 AUGUST 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z AUGUST 2016
         TCPOD NUMBER.....16-091

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70           FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 74
       A. 26/1400Z                    A. 26/2330Z, 27/0530Z
       B. AFXXX 05EEA INVEST          B. AFXXX 0608A CYCLONE
       C. 26/1145Z                    C. 26/2000Z
       D. 23.0N 75.0W                 D. 23.6N 75.8W
       E. 26/1330Z TO 26/1730Z        E. 26/2300Z TO 27/0530Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT            F. SFC TO 15,000 FT   

       FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 75
       A. 27/1130Z, 1730Z
       B. AFXXX 0708A CYCLONE
       C. 27/0815Z
       D. 24.0N 71.0W
       E. 27/1100Z TO 27/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT   

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES. A SYNOPTIC
       SURVEILLANCE MISSION FOR 28/0000Z.

    3. REMARKS:
       A. MISSION FOR 25/2330Z AND 26/0530Z CANCELED.
       B. MISSION FOR 26/1130Z AND 26/1730Z CHANGED TO FLIGHT
       ONE ABOVE.
       C. NOAA'S P-3 (NOAA 43)WILL CONTINUE RESEARCH MISSIONS
       INTO THIS SYSTEM EVERY 12 HOURS WITH TAKEOFFS AT 0600Z
       AND 1800Z.

[TimeZone]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/99L/flash-vis-long.html

Shear still giving little 99L big-time issues. Storms trying to form over/near the Center just got vigorously blown off very quickly.

[AdamFirst]

Center is now over the Turks and Caicos.

[SoupBone]

Center is now over the Turks and Caicos.

Finally starting to pull away from Hispaniola.

[tigerz3030]

Living in St Augustine, I have been following all of this discussion for 3 days now. This is the most hard to predict storm I've ever witnessed. 5 days out still could be headed towards TX or the big bend and just north of Jacksonville, FL.

Being I just moved here 2 years ago, I'm watching intently in case I need to get supplies for the family.

[SouthFLTropics]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/99L/flash-vis-long.html

Shear still giving little 99L big-time issues. Storms trying to form over/near the Center just got vigorously blown off very quickly.

You got that right...You can see those storms try to fire and then all of a sudden they were swept right away to the east...POOF, gone!!!

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

wow, im gonna start calling 99 "the little engine that could" has literally slowly and steadily plowed through and fighting off all the negative conditions around the islands. good news is that it makes for some interesting talk here, bad news is that 99 could very well suddenly intensify the minute it finally moves away from the islands and make for little time for prep for SFL. with the major convection blowing up in the middle of the night, if future hermine makes any lattitude today she just make intensify tonight

[AdamFirst]

According to SHIPS the shear is projected to relax in as soon as 12-24 hours. If the center maintains despite it being exposed then it's probably in business

[jasons2k]

All, just a reminder to let the Mods moderate the discussion. Name calling will not be tolerated. If you have an issue with a specific post or poster, please flag the post and send a PM to the Mod staff. Thank you.

[JPmia]

According to SHIPS the shear is projected to relax in as soon as 12-24 hours. If the center maintains despite it being exposed then it's probably in business

It better hope for that because right now it is not doing well.. too much shear it appears.

[PTrackerLA]

Starting to wonder if the naked swirl will even survive today without any convection. Going to be interesting.

[AutoPenalti]

Wow, what the hell happened overnight?

We are back to naked swirl? And it looks like it's going faster than last time?

I don't think this will have time to intensify.

[TimeZone]

If the shear doesn't relax soon (like really soon) this thing is toast. At this point it's a naked swirl that appears to be on life-support. Latest GFS doesn't develop it at all.

[gatorcane]

Here comes the upper-level low over South Carolina that the GFS has been showing will induce shear over 99L even in the Bahamas...

[jasons2k]

The exposed center/swirl appears to be headed due west at the moment, south of the Turks and Caicos...

[davidiowx]

Here comes the upper-level low over South Carolina that the GFS has been showing will induce shear over 99L even in the Bahamas...

Thinking that may just be it for 99L. Just my opinion though

[SoupBone]

Here comes the upper-level low over South Carolina that the GFS has been showing will induce shear over 99L even in the Bahamas...

Is it possible for that thing to dip far enough to give 99L a death blow? That thing is racing south.