ATL: HERMINE - Models

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Tireman4
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2081 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:38 pm

You know...Wxman 57 might just have the right idea about this one....Still way too far out to make concrete judgements though..


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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2082 Postby ronyan » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:38 pm

Wait for the last frame, if it stays on that vector into land it would be a complete disaster for NOLA.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2083 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:38 pm

this has it way farther west........strong strong ridge makes it scary
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2084 Postby miamijaaz » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:39 pm

deltadog03 wrote:HR174 heading northward...hello panhandle of FL..sucker is strong as well.


955 mb, is that Cat 3?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2085 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:39 pm

deltadog03 wrote:HR174 heading northward...hello panhandle of FL..sucker is strong as well.



yeah should turn nne
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2086 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:39 pm

Good grief this is getting serious on the 12z run. Not comforting seeing the westward trend this run!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2087 Postby drezee » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:40 pm

The 12z Europe had too lows in the GoM. It bundled it all an split the difference on the track. This would be very bad...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2088 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:41 pm

Alyono wrote:Miami landfall at 984mb


What would that equate to wind wise ? 65-70kts?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2089 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:41 pm

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/768153712791580672


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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2090 Postby ronyan » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:41 pm

What is the pressure @ 168 hr on hi res?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2091 Postby RL3AO » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:42 pm

I'm really hoping the GFS is right here. With the strength of that ridge, a European result may shift even further west. Thats a scarily similar track to a certain storm in 2005.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2092 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:42 pm

ronyan wrote:What is the pressure @ 168 hr on hi res?


956mb
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2093 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:42 pm

947mb at 174.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2094 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:43 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2095 Postby ronyan » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:43 pm

Mobile hit @ 951 mb
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2096 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:43 pm

RL3AO wrote:I'm really hoping the GFS is right here. With the strength of that ridge, a European result may shift even further west. Thats a scarily similar track to a certain storm in 2005.


the strength of the ridge with the gfs is nearly the same.. the gfs has other issues inhibiting strength and track
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2097 Postby Nederlander » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:43 pm

Mobile Bay at 192 hr with pressure sub 950 hi res...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2098 Postby deltadog03 » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:43 pm

looks like gulfport/biloxi hit...got to be in the low 950's.....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2099 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:44 pm

939mb at hour 180 + landfall.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2100 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:44 pm

trend is west........still a week out, could we keep seeing the trend west who knows but that's not good
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