ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Alyono]

very slight south shift at 36 hours. Starting to see that the 12Z run was an outlier to the east

what do sift to south do to track?

not sure, may mean a slightly slower track to the north, though I cannot say this far out

[stormreader]

A view of the diving trough (into the Gulf now) with Mathew just off the screen to lower right. My understanding is that the trough will provide a mild inducement to Mathew to take a more northerly course, but the flattening of the trough in coming days will instead provide ridging to the north of the storm thus a very slow movement is forecast at the time it exits the Carribean to the North. But a weakness is forecast to erode this ridge (is it the cut-off low visible in the Ohio Valley?) or perhaps some other localized phenomenon which would provide the escape to the North just east of the Fl Coast. I really have to wonder if Mathew is going to slow down enough in the Central Carribean for this trough to lift it in an almost due N course toward the Bahamas. Since the influence will be mild relatively speaking, seems like you would have a gradual turn WNW then NW toward Central Cuba. Seems like serious stalling could occur here instead of the Bahamas. After that a localized weakness in the ridge might take the storm up the West Coast of Fl or enhanced ridging (no weakness) might imply a WNW to NW movement in the GOM. Gonna go with those two scenarios right now till we learn more. Across Cuba and up West Coast of Fl or across Cuba then WNW to NW out into North Central GOM. Too early to forecast landfall if the 2nd scenario plays out.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Looks like ridging is slightly stronger through 72 hours on 0Z GFS. We'll see how this plays out in the long run though.

[p1nheadlarry]

Matthew starts turning a bit north on the GFDL

At the end of the 18z run near 80 west!!!

As someone in SE NC that's not the longitude I'd like to see it turn. Too close. Though the GFDL being right in over a week is a longshot compared to others. HWRF was supposed to replace it I thought.

What's decreasing? This can go anywere!

The NHC is already shifting their track East some 4-5 days out.

The threat may be decreasing for Florida, but it's just as high as ever for the East Coast / NC and North of there

I think Matthew heading through the windward passage, closer or even over Haiti, is bad for our beaches but not for a direct strike. Unless it gets stuck like prior runs further south.

[Jevo]

Looks like finally a Northern Component at +84 in tonight's GFS run

[pcolaman]

I'm saying gulf The fork in the road is very close and could be really bad for some people. Gonna be a monster for sure and people better be getting there plans in order and we're there gonna go. Gonna impact millions !!

[bamajammer4eva]

84 hr is in precisely the same location as it was at the valid time from 06z and last nights 00z but its a couple of MB weaker and the Ridge is a bit stronger

[1900hurricane]

Today's 00Z GFS looks like it's about in the same location of yesterday's 00Z GFS at tau 78.

[stormreader]

Looks like ridging is slightly stronger through 72 hours on 0Z GFS. We'll see how this plays out in the long run though.

I think slightly stronger ridging if it verifies might allow for a further west trek in the Carribean toward Jamaica and the perhaps a crossing of central to w Cuba perhaps emerging south of Key West. That's my short term solution right now. Longer term I posted on the earlier post with diving trough.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Did yesterday's show the SW movement like tonights?

[1900hurricane]

Ridging also trending stronger and further SW through tau 96.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Going to split the gap between Jamaica and Haiti.

A little slower and SW than the 18Z, and Bermuda high is holding up a little better, but I don't see anything too significantly different.

[PTrackerLA]

Just basing this off comparisons from the last several runs I would expect a westward shift NC could be in the cross-hairs once again let's see...

[p1nheadlarry]

Gatorcane..interesting that the JMA makes the turn more N-NW thru the peninsula. Thinking if the GFDL run went longer, might show the same thing. Another model that hugs the south American coast....Hmmm....

A la Hurricane King (1950)

[stormreader]

Going to split the gap between Jamaica and Haiti.

A little slower and SW than the 18Z, and Bermuda high is holding up a little better, but I don't see anything too significantly different.

Not much difference yet. But could be important for a more gradual NW course in Carribean instead of the due N turn. If that trend amplifies Mathew might be quite a bit further west when it exits the Carribean.

[floridasun78]

so this mean could see cone over most south fl by sat that make people notice alot and get news here hype system that good and bad

[p1nheadlarry]

Over eastern Cuba. Ruh roh raggy.

[SouthFLTropics]

Over western Cuba. Ruh roh raggy.

Huh??? Western?

[HurricaneFrances04]

Looks like the trough that breaks down the ridge is a little slower this run. Allows Matthew to move further west, and slower.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Possible but I don't think they would post that unless there is some consistency in the models the next day or so, would cause way to much panic.