ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bob rulz]

Anybody counting this out is jumping to conclusions way too quickly. It's running out of time for it to get its act together before Florida, but all it has to do is find 1 pocket of favorable conditions in the Bahamas area or Gulf of Mexico to blow up. If conditions are favorable in the Gulf, it could intensify very very rapidly, which would be a near worst case scenario.

[Aric Dunn]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 251907.GIF

[Aric Dunn]

stating the obvious. but still no west wind.. look at the cloud lines coming off the islands. the are in the same direction even as the "center approaches. at this point there should be any or showing westerly direction. still just a wave axis.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[Hurricane Alexis]

I remember an hwrf trend from a few days ago had it this weak at this point only to blow up in the Bahamas a couple days after. It also predicted the burst of convection with TS winds that we saw a day ago as well.

[Frank P]

I've been watching that little naked LLC for what two days? Still looks rather vigorous to me ATM... It has not given up and I too am not ready to throw in the towel just yet... if it can survive, which is the question of the day, and does make it to the GOM with the same vigor as it has now, I think it might have a chance to develop into something... got to give it credit for hanging in as long as it has though... my opinion only

[SeGaBob]

I'm curious if this is too far gone for DMAX to help it... might, might not.

[PTrackerLA]

Would not surprise me to see NHC drop 5 day chances to 50% next update. That may be generous.

[sunnyday]

Would someone please explain what happened? Did the European model break?

[Nederlander]

Hostile shear definitely appears to be the main culprit for lack of development, but there's also a nice wedge of dry air just to the north and west of 99L that isn't helping matters either. Water vapor loop:

From my understanding, that only shows water vapor in the mid levels.. Still plenty of PW associated with it.. I don't know that whatever dry air is present is really making a difference at this point but I could be wrong..

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html

[RL3AO]

Would someone please explain what happened? Did the European model break?

We're talking about a few hundred miles between a favorable environment and an unfavorable one. So far the GFS has correctly identified that the shear would remain a little further south than the Euro was suggesting.

In the big picture though, the upgraded European model may be significantly less skillful in the tropics than previous versions, but we may need a full season or two to know for certain.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Am I the only one not surprised by this at this point? I thought conditions were predicted by most of the models over the last couple of days to be pretty poor/borderline for any development until tomorrow afternoon. Shear was going to be an issue as well as proximity to land. It wasn't going to be until the circulation (or whatever it almost is) could get a little north of the islands and get closer to the Bahamas before any strengthening was going to be able to happen. However, if it could avoid the islands and maintain a circulation structure, it had a good chance of rapid intensification once over the warm waters and in a more conducive synoptic environment. Real strengthening wasn't really going to kick in until Sunday I thought. I wouldn't be surprised to see some DMax popping tonight and that nekkid swirl starting to put on some clothes. People should not dismiss this yet and ignore it over the weekend, especially if along the Gulf Coast.

[SSB]

Hostile shear definitely appears to be the main culprit for lack of development, but there's also a nice wedge of dry air just to the north and west of 99L that isn't helping matters either. Water vapor loop:

From my understanding, that only shows water vapor in the mid levels.. Still plenty of PW associated with it.. I don't know that whatever dry air is present is really making a difference at this point but I could be wrong..

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html

I'm no expert either, but my understanding is that dry air entrained at mid levels tamps down on potential instability and core thunderstorm formation. 99L certainly lacks the latter. Yes, it still can produce plenty of precip for locations in the path of the storm.

[sunnyday]

Thank you, RL3A0, for being kind enough to answer my question.

[SSB]

Would someone please explain what happened? Did the European model break?

We're talking about a few hundred miles between a favorable environment and an unfavorable one. So far the GFS has correctly identified that the shear would remain a little further south than the Euro was suggesting.

In the big picture though, the upgraded European model may be significantly less skillful in the tropics than previous versions, but we may need a full season or two to know for certain.

I've always felt the Op GFS gets a bit of a bum rap when it comes to tropical systems. Sandy certainly wan't its finest hour, but I've seen the GFS pick up on stuff early in the tropical Atlantic, especially during the Cabo Verde season, that no other model detects until much later. I'm not surprised it is "winning" this particular battle with the Euro (so far).

[AdamFirst]

The only way I'm writing this off is if the circulation completely disintegrates - and that hasn't happened yet

Conditions will become more ideal in <24 hours

[RL3AO]

Need to remember that both the Euro and GFS have had total upgrades to their physics and grids. They have the same names, but they are effectively new models for this year. What model A did previous very likely will not be the same now. It's very possible the Euro will verify at the end of the season (when NHC posts the report) behind the GFS, HWRF, and maybe UKMET.

[Emmett_Brown]

The small swirl of low clouds appears to be moving due W now. Storms are beginning to fire well to the east, far removed from this swirl. Perhaps the swirl will die, and a new area of low pressure will form. Only time will tell.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

On visible I still see a turning over eastern DR.

[jhpigott]

lower level cloud deck around that vort is getting milky. May see a few storms pop soon by that vort

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12


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[TropicalSailor]

Recon flight just made the turn East heading for the spin. Interested to see these numbers.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/