ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2421 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:40 am

Slughitter3 wrote:So I'm very new at this but just want to ask. The GFS 12z appears to initiate the storm at 1004mb, if I'm reading it correctly, how much of a difference does that make since Matt is already down to 995? Thanks


Howdy and welcome. the GFS init was at 996mb, you need to look at the 10 meter winds + surface pressure to see the full res version.

12Z GFS

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2422 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:40 am

I think that the GFS is an example of why wxman says that an East Coast hit is still possible, even though out to sea is more possible. It may end up being a very close call
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2423 Postby meriland23 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:41 am

Least it's barely out of cat 1 stage when it hits this run..
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2424 Postby Alyono » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:42 am

meriland23 wrote:Least it's barely out of cat 1 stage when it hits this run..



it's a cat 3. Pressure is about 950mb. Could be a cat 2, but unlikely given its structure
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2425 Postby centuryv58 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:42 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:I think that the GFS is an example of why wxman says that an East Coast hit is still possible, even though out to sea is more possible. It may end up being a very close call


OTS ia not a good call ATM.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2426 Postby Ken711 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:42 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:I think that the GFS is an example of why wxman says that an East Coast hit is still possible, even though out to sea is more possible. It may end up being a very close call


Why would out to sea be more possible?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2427 Postby p1nheadlarry » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:44 am

centuryv58 wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:I think that the GFS is an example of why wxman says that an East Coast hit is still possible, even though out to sea is more possible. It may end up being a very close call


OTS ia not a good call ATM.


Not sure I'd call a coast hugger OTS even if it doesn't actually landfall anywhere. Still could have negative affects at the beaches.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2428 Postby meriland23 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:44 am

I can't believe this storm is already at 70 mph, it totally skipped the depression stage yesterday, went to TS, and now it's almost a Hurricane. Isn't that sort of rapid development odd? Usually when I see that the storms wither and treck differently
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2429 Postby Blown Away » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:45 am

Image
12z GFS 228 Hours... In Canada...

Image
00z Euro at 240 Hours...

Massive difference in forward speed...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2430 Postby chaser1 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:46 am

sponger wrote:Yep looks like it could be blocked from escape. So hard to get any reliability this far out but GFS builds back a large ridge fairly quickly. SFL to Maine still in play. We should know a lot more by Sunday. Got Bill Burr tickets for Friday night next week so as much as I love tropical weather, I will root for a fish!


Honestly, I am not buying the soon to be degraded Western edge of the low to mid level ridge to the north of the storm and I think the GOM is still in play. Sudden and changing 500mb anomaly forecasts showing present ridging over the Southwest Atlantic turning into some weak trough-ridge-trough pattern makes me very suspicious. Strangely, the models that i'd have the very LEAST faith in (CMC, GFDS, NASA?) are those insisting a bit more of a westward motion yet there's no reasonable explanation how/why the far more sophisticated models such as GFS, UK, and EURO would not pick up on any dynamics where the lessor models should be lacking. It'll be interesting to see whether the 18Z (but for sure the 0Z) GFS runs imply a different view of the 2-6 day range. To be honest though, I'm not anticipating that any westward shift by the GFS or EURO will be indicated, and perhaps even show a more northerly/northeasterly component. Almost feels like 10 people are all seeing a ghost but I"m not seeing it. "It must be there, but is disconcerting that I"m not able to visualize it" LOL
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2431 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:46 am

GFS,CMC and UKMET shift westward
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2432 Postby meriland23 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:47 am

Funny how just the other day EURO was the westward trend, and GFS was eastern. Now it is totally flipped.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2433 Postby Ken711 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:48 am

Blown Away wrote:Image
12z GFS 228 Hours... In Canada...

Image
00z Euro at 240 Hours...

Massive difference in forward speed...


Isn't it also much stronger in intensity?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2434 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:48 am

Ken711 wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:I think that the GFS is an example of why wxman says that an East Coast hit is still possible, even though out to sea is more possible. It may end up being a very close call


Why would out to sea be more possible?




I'm not the expert, but wxman mentioned the overall trend of the continuing shifting east of the Ensembles(spelling may not be correct)
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2435 Postby Ken711 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:49 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:
Ken711 wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:I think that the GFS is an example of why wxman says that an East Coast hit is still possible, even though out to sea is more possible. It may end up being a very close call


Why would out to sea be more possible?




I'm not the expert, but wxman mentioned the overall trend of the continuing shifting east of the Ensembles(spelling may not be correct)


I understand, but the GFS is trending west.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2436 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:50 am

Blown Away wrote:
Massive difference in forward speed...


Lets wait for the 12z Euro later today so we can do a 12z to 12z comparison to see if the gap closes or not. Something had to give...


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2437 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:51 am

Through 33 hours the HWRF is further SW. Now has it below 14N latitude.
Last edited by SouthFLTropics on Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2438 Postby centuryv58 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:51 am

Ken711 wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:
Ken711 wrote:
Why would out to sea be more possible?




I'm not the expert, but wxman mentioned the overall trend of the continuing shifting east of the Ensembles(spelling may not be correct)


I understand, but the GFS is trending west.


Yes they now are. Its probably best to view a range of opinions here and draw your own informed conclusions.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2439 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:53 am

La Sirena wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
chris_fit wrote:So the 12Z GFS is actually quite a bit WEST than the 00Z Euro - go figure LOL :double:
euro has been a couple steps behind the gfs for a few days, lets see where we are in 24 hours and if they get in sync...we are still far out in time as far as any usa strike

Earlier on the Euro had it trending west farther and much slower. So, is the GFS trying to come back toward the original Euro trends?
its one run of the gfs..we have to see more before declaring anything...the general idea is the same just closer to the usa which is concerning...we are still looking way down the road
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2440 Postby terstorm1012 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:53 am

I'd say OTS is possible depending on the timing of the trough. I think that's why the divide between the super slow Euro (still down in the Bahamas at hr 240) and the GFS (crawling up the east coast.)
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