ATL: HERMINE - Models

[ConvergenceZone]

And we have landfall folks! Based upon the MB, I'm thinking it's forecasting a Cat 3 as of now.........

[ronyan]

That's right where the 12z ensemble mean showed earlier I believe. Close to my neck of the woods.

[Kingarabian]

937 mb @ landfall hour 186.

[Blinhart]

932mb hour 180, about to make landfall near the LA/Tx border.

Just what all of Louisiana does not need.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

932mb hour 180, about to make landfall near the LA/Tx border.

What category is that? :'(

[Kingarabian]

And we have landfall folks! Based upon the MB, I'm thinking it's forecasting a Cat 3 as of now.........

Not a cat.3, @ peak it's a bordlerline Cat. 5, landfall Cat.4.

[ConvergenceZone]

932mb hour 180, about to make landfall near the LA/Tx border.

Just what all of Louisiana does not need.

Well, thankfully it's only one run, and there will be probably lots of shifts. But I do pay more attention when it's the EURO. Any other model and I probably won't pay as much attention to it.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

well 99 just blew up if anyone hasnt been to the discussion thread. may be upgraded to a Cat 1 in the morning.

[Kingarabian]

932mb hour 180, about to make landfall near the LA/Tx border.

What category is that? :'(

High end cat.4.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

932mb hour 180, about to make landfall near the LA/Tx border.

What category is that? :'(

High end cat.4.

oh my word. Rita basically. Still far out folks.

[CaliforniaResident]

In terms of intensity at landfall, it could make Katrina look like child's play but hopefully New Orleans is much better prepared this time around

[Blinhart]

Is the GoM warm enough and big enough to support a Cat. 6 (winds over 205)? I think it is warm enough, but will this system stay over open water the whole time or not is the question?

[South Texas Storms]

Another big shift west from the Euro this run. I suspect the west shifts may not be done yet.

[Blinhart]

In terms of intensity at landfall, it could make Katrina look like child's play but hopefully New Orleans is much better prepared this time around.

The difference is New Orleans has flood gates open already for all the flooding last week, so if this goes towards New Orleans they would have to close the gates again and that will cause major in-land flooding that Katrina caused some but nothing compared to what this would do. Also if this is a Cat 4/5 when coming in that would be at least 10 times more energy than Katrina.

[chaser1]

Someone, somewhere in some small S. Texas town tomorrow morning.... is gonna be sitting off the side of some very busy traffic intersection, and selling rolls of duct tape for about $20 bucks a piece!

[Kingarabian]

Is the GoM warm enough and big enough to support a Cat. 6 (winds over 205)? I think it is warm enough, but will this system stay over open water the whole time or not is the question?

Euro has it fluctuating in strength. Weakens it upon landfall. (924mb to 937 ish)

[Bocadude85]

Still not a great consensus on a landfall location yet.

[wflamholtz]

Still not a great consensus on a landfall location yet.

The important thing is that within 5 days, it gets into the gulf as a well defined system

[CaliforniaResident]

In terms of intensity at landfall, it could make Katrina look like child's play but hopefully New Orleans is much better prepared this time around.

The difference is New Orleans has flood gates open already for all the flooding last week, so if this goes towards New Orleans they would have to close the gates again and that will cause major in-land flooding that Katrina caused some but nothing compared to what this would do. Also if this is a Cat 4/5 when coming in that would be at least 10 times more energy than Katrina.

They better start planning those evacuations soon if those models still hold up for tomorrow.

[Blinhart]

Is the GoM warm enough and big enough to support a Cat. 6 (winds over 205)? I think it is warm enough, but will this system stay over open water the whole time or not is the question?

Euro has it fluctuating in strength. Weakens it upon landfall. (924mb to 932 ish)

As most storms do fluctuate some at landfall along the Gulf Coast because the first 200 miles or so from the Coastline of Louisiana is pretty shallow in most parts, so if the storm slows down any on the way in it would weaken some. But from 924 to 932 is probably winds from 165 to 155, which is still pretty damn dangerous, and since South Louisiana (south of the Hwy 190 Corridor) is inundated with water and pretty much flat. I live approximately 35 miles from the coastline as the crow flies but only 18 feet above sea level, so if any levees breach south of me or there is a 20 foot tidal rise with 20 foot waves I could have the GoM close to my back door.