ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Levi is awesome. His explanation of everything really covers it all. In short quit watching the swirl heading for Cuba. Says to watch the total wave as it will have to start from scratch on development but is still healthy as far as waves go and should not be totally dismissed.

Yes I agree the swirl is done, so this wave will need to start from scratch.

[gboudx]

Sorry for being so obscure in my posting. I'm pretty sure I didn't say it was a waste of time. I was merely pointing out the obvious frustration many are feeling of not knowing what this future storm may do. I was merely pointing out the obvious fact that as "just" a Tropical Wave," and as such, it was therefore still too early to actually know what type of storm it might become.

Hope that clears it up!

MB

Welcome to S2k. Please understand that every radar/satellite/water vapor/etc image, and every model run will be scrutinized and discussed to the n-th degree. It happens. You will learn to filter out the "noise", or really enjoy the banter.

[RL3AO]

Hello.

I'm so glad to have found this forum! I only just started reading (with this little Invest) and really love all the input and opinions - even though I don't always understand all the "shortcuts," but I'm learning. Living in FL most of my life, I've always been interested in Hurricanes and their little bro's and sis's.

Well, after all the reading I've done on this storm, I've got an opinion, and I hope this is the place for it....and I hope I don't upset too many people with it!

It seems to me that this Tropical Wave has gotten way too much attention! What I mean by that is this: Folks, it's still just a Tropical Wave! It's not a big, bad, mean storm - YET.

I realize there are prognosticators here who want to be correct in their predictions of strength, intensity, direction, etc., and I can go that way, too! But here's the thing: It's still "just" a Tropical Wave at this point. So in my mind, I think we're being somewhat premature. Maybe we ought to let it get to "Tropical Storm" status before we try to predict what it is forecast to do?

I mean, don't get me wrong, it's a HEALTHY Tropical Wave! I get it. But it IS just a tropical wave, and as such, it's still got a ways to go before it can play with the "big boys."

I hope I haven't just got myself booted out of this forum with my very first post, but this is my opinion. And, btw, I read ALL 117 pages before I posted, so I'm aware of where all of this discussion has been all week!

Thanks for letting me let off steam, y'all.

Michele you read 117 pages of what we write and you think perhaps we are just wasting time?

There are a 117+ pages for a reason.

I have forecasted hurricanes for over 35 years and STILL study the heck out of Tropical Waves. They are the genesis of what could be come a Cat 5 Major Hurricane.

Tropical Waves are VERY interesting to us.

Sorry for being so obscure in my posting. I'm pretty sure I didn't say it was a waste of time. I was merely pointing out the obvious frustration many are feeling of not knowing what this future storm may do. I was merely pointing out the obvious fact that as "just" a Tropical Wave," and as such, it was therefore still too early to actually know what type of storm it might become.

Hope that clears it up!

MB

There was some crazy discussion but these are the types of waves that create the Andrew and Katrina's of the world so I don't think it was over the top.

[Steve]

It's just wait mode. As Levi pointed out, inability for a decent llc to get going was stymied by a band of mid level dry air and lack of inflow partially attributable to dry air downsloping off the mountains. So this delays potential development longer than Saturday which is when earlier model runs predicted Genesis. I'd also say that I think the delayed development isn't necessarily a symptom of anything larger than the localized issues 99L has had to deal with.

NHC is still going with a 60% chance of development. I don't know. There are too many variables. Can the wave associated with 99L (which is mostly what it is back to) spin up something sustainable? Will interaction with energy out front of 99L piling up as it rotates around the surface high intersect with a surface trough and spin up something else in the western Gulf out front? Could the mix of 2 weak potential systems be an unresolved solution leading to something like the HWRF is depicting? I don't know. It's the end of August, so you have to watch out for anything. I think everyone got a little hyped when the models jumped the gun. Hopefully millions of people in SFL will avoid major disruption and hopefully only see some minor inconveniences. So that's always good. Beyond that, things appear to be a question mark.

[drewschmaltz]

I've only watched a half dozen storms with you guys but the way this interacted with Hispaniola reminds me (I think) of Colin and the yucitan. Every night dmax would blow up convection but it was created by land. Gatorcane was throwing high tower alerts (and they were impressive on radar) but it blocked the inflow and brought it to its knees. I think that's what we weren't seeing and if we had realized just how much the inflow would be blocked we would have known that it was the nail in the coffin for the earlier stronger Euro solutions. Next time I see a forecast track like this I'll expect it.

[Jagno]

Michele, Welcome to the board. I understood exactly what you were saying and agree totally. Lots of great people here and you will learn a great deal from them as I'm sure we'll learn from you. Thanks for joining us.

[dexterlabio]

In my part of the world, invest areas can spawn a Cat 1 in 2 days..also a moderate TS can grow into a full-fledged Cat4 in less than 48 hours, given excellent conditions. My point is, it is *quite* important for people to keep an eye on a tropical wave, even if it is *just* a tropical wave. Put a naked swirl in a perfect environment and perhaps you won't be seeing just a naked swirl in a day or two. While I believe watching the current development of a system does matter, you also need to look at the environment where it is heading.

[TheStormExpert]

That anti-cyclone being displaced well to the south causing relentless shear over 99L have basically killed it's chances of development.

Florida and the U.S. are VERY lucky cause if that anti-cyclone setup shop directly on top of 99L we would have been screwed and 2 long standing records would have likely been broken.

[RL3AO]

That anti-cyclone being displaced well to the south causing relentless shear over 99L have basically killed it's chances of development.

Florida and the U.S. are VERY lucky cause if that anti-cyclone setup shop directly on top of 99L we would have been screwed and 2 long standing records would have likely been broken.

Yeah. We're talking about a slight shift in the position of the ridge. Small changes cause big effects in meteorology.

[Hurricaneman]

Convection seems to have moved over the center the last frame or 2 on IR north of eastern Cuba

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[drewschmaltz]

I was talking about land convection during dmax with Colin being similar to what we saw here. Here's the post by Gatorcane I was referring to:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=84&t=117946&p=2507487&hilit=High+tower#p2507487

[Michele B]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ This is Levi Cowans latest video update on 99L. I think everyone would benefit by watching it. He lays out everything very logically and sensibly so everyone can understand what is going on.

Thanks for posting this, Sunny.

It WAS very informative!

[HurriGuy]

The tropical wave axis is moving off to the WNW and the upper high feature we have been speaking of all day long is on a very slow drift the southwest. Don't let the wave axis fool you into thinking the upper high is drifting with it. The problems have occurred, in my opinion, because that slow drift to the southwest for the upper high has been a crawl. If you have access to the ECMWF 200mb map, you can tell that it corrected itself from the 00z last night to the 12z today with the extended sheer, thus with the overall weaker trend....INITIALLY.

Now I say this because at some point the wave axis will get out from underneath the upper high that has been sheering it apart all day. If the ECMWF starts to go with this more southern route like the model guidance seems to have slowly been trending to all day, it will be hugging Cuba all the way to the southeast Gulf. The GFS 18z even brought the energy towards that region. And every model I have looked at has the upper high north of the wave being pushed into the Gulf and the sweet spot is in the southeast Gulf. And if the energy gets there, then the HWRF might not be too far off from a decent hurricane. Would be great conditions with minimal sheer and hardly any dry air.

Fun upper air pattern to dissect

[HurriGuy]

That last post summarized:

Stop letting your guard down until this option comes to fruition or the whole thing is shredded and its a minimal rain event for Florida.

[NJWxHurricane]

Any chance this thing survives?

[RL3AO]

Any chance this thing survives?

NHC says yes

[NJWxHurricane]

Any chance this thing survives?

NHC says yes

Off topic, but man were you quite young when you joined storm2k! Reminds me of myself, lol.

[MississippiWx]

Just to get you guys talking more, but I have just found another eddy or vorticitu maximum back in the convection around 23N 70W. Notice the fairly strong SSW wind observation just to the east of this lower level spin. Interesting at the very least.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[RL3AO]

Any chance this thing survives?

NHC says yes

Off topic, but man were you quite young when you joined storm2k! Reminds me of myself, lol.

Haha. Yeah. Only 9 months from a blue name now. Time flies.

[HurriGuy]

Just to get you guys talking more, but I have just found another eddy or vorticitu maximum back in the convection around 23N 70W. Notice the fairly strong SSW wind observation just to the east of this lower level spin. Interesting at the very least.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

If a new LLC were to form, that would be the best location for it if it had plans to survive