ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[WeatherEmperor]

Turns back WNW at 144!


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[wxmann_91]

I think the EURO is on crack. If I was a betting man I'd put my money on the GFS. It's forecast seems more logical

In what way (through the forecast hours we have now for the Euro)? If anything the GFS has trended towards the Euro with the SW dip.

[chris_fit]

Turns back WNW at 144!


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I think N with a slight W component would be a more accurate description.

[Ken711]

EC is moving due north along 74W

What is the EC seeing that the others aren't or visa versa?

[sma10]

So basically, the 144hr position is identical to yesterday's 168hr position, albeit it arrived in that very spot in two different paths. What IS different however, is the 500mb pattern. Totally different - I do not think the rest of this run will look like yesterday's 12z run.

[gatorcane]

12Z JMA turning this WNW in the Bahamas and then ends up hitting Florida:

[tolakram]

Completely different look from last run.

[WeatherEmperor]

I just realized the 12z Ukmet has a similar WNW turn at 144hrs after passing between Cuba and Hispanola


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[tolakram]

No consistency from the euro at this range yet.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I just realized the 12z Ukmet has a similar WNW turn at 144hrs after passing between Cuba and Hispanola


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Any chance you could post the run?

[sma10]

I just realized the 12z Ukmet has a similar WNW turn at 144hrs after passing between Cuba and Hispanola


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Yes - and this is exactly what I was looking for with the Euro's run ... IOW, does the Euro look more like GFS or UK.

[chaser1]

Turns back WNW at 144!


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With that new large cut-off low moving east and into the E. Central Plains, i'd guess that any WNW motion at this point would be very short lived. Maybe a swing more northward given this solution. Would be a serious threat to the Carolina's unless the flow becomes SSW. I"m still stuck on what exactly transpires between 48-72 hours resulting in the very consistently forecast north turn

[ConvergenceZone]

I think the EURO is on crack. If I was a betting man I'd put my money on the GFS. It's forecast seems more logical

In what way (through the forecast hours we have now for the Euro)? If anything the GFS has trended towards the Euro and with the SW dip.

The GFS trended west, now hitting the East Coast. Prior to that it was out to sea

[Blown Away]

12z Euro... 168 Hours... Cat 3/4... Moving NW in Central Bahamas...

[xironman]

No consistency from the euro at this range yet.

But both the GFS and the Euro are predicting the midwest upper low quite well at 144

[WeatherEmperor]

Definitely WNW at 168


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[gatorcane]

[tolakram]

[chris_fit]

Must more of a W component at 168...

[meriland23]

much closer to US at 168