ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[xironman]

Well the mid-level shear was stopping any convection from even getting started yesterday, it is in a better environment today. Let's see.

[TheStormExpert]

I think we need to be careful about referring to 99L as Hermine. If this storm does spin up, it may very well be after the storm coming off of Africa, that models are predicting spins up. 99L could in fact turn out to be Ian.

And we all know how the "I" storms can cause problems.

[Aric Dunn]

and that peeps is the tropics for you.. a whole separate circulation has developed as the wave axis shift east. once it hit the west side of the island.. the hwrf pretty much had the land interaction nailed just not the details of it.. not its starting to look promising..

[JaxGator]

and that peeps is the tropics for you.. a whole separate circulation has developed as the wave axis shift east. once it hit the west side of the island.. the hwrf pretty much had the land interaction nailed just not the details of it.. not its starting to look promising..

Things change quickly sometimes in the tropics. That's for sure. Now we'll see if it can fire more convection.

[Dean4Storms]

Don't see much coming from this today, was no need for Recon. You need a good day of continuous convection near an overall center to get a closed low level circulation and if sheared even longer usually.

I think Sunday into Monday are the days of reckoning, if this isn't organizing better by then with sustained convection over an overall center I will be feeling better up here in the Panhandle.

[Aric Dunn]

Don't see much coming from this today, was no need for Recon. You need a good day of continuous convection near an overall center to get a closed low level circulation and if sheared even longer usually.

I think Sunday into Monday are the days of reckoning, if this isn't organizing better by then with sustained convection over an overall center I will be feeling better up here in the Panhandle.

yeah I am mean its not rapidly organizing or anything but its appears to be on its way.

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
Interesting turning feature that Wxman57 pointed out near 23N/74.7W moving WNW...

[Aric Dunn]

It has also slowed down considerably which will give me an easier time to keep the convection

[TheStormExpert]

We'll see about that.

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/769153849324085248

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

Location: 21.8°N 74.7°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 100 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 80 NM

[rockyman]

The "center" is well north of Cuba, and seems to be firing convection just east of this "center". The next 24 hours should be very telling.

[jlauderdal]

We'll see about that.

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/769153849324085248

you dont trust shear forecasts, lol..they have been so accurate this week

[Dean4Storms]

It has also slowed down considerably which will give me an easier time to keep the convection

Yea, it has slowed a good bit which should help with organizing.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/769157478789500929

[Blown Away]

12z Best Track

Location: 21.8°N 74.7°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 100 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 80 NM

Might be an eddy spinning off to the NW, but clear turning near 23N/73.8W... I don't se much at the 12z position...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[terrapintransit]

Yes, we do. Buddy Ivan even brought serious flooding way up to my hometown in Pennsylvania. RELENTLESS.

I think we need to be careful about referring to 99L as Hermine. If this storm does spin up, it may very well be after the storm coming off of Africa, that models are predicting spins up. 99L could in fact turn out to be Ian.

And we all know how the "I" storms can cause problems.

[chris_fit]

Well...

Tampa Bay Weather Service seems pretty (maybe overly) confident about this.

['CaneFreak]

Yeah the mid-level and low level center will become re-coupled very soon. Watch for the low level center north of the Bahamas to get tucked under the mid-level center farther south.

It has also slowed down considerably which will give me an easier time to keep the convection

Yea, it has slowed a good bit which should help with organizing.

[blp]

Waiting on CIMSS map to update but 850 & 700 vorticity were very close to the area but the 500 was still over Hispaniola. I think with the diminished convection over Hispaniola I expect the next update to move the 500 close to the other two levels. I think it might have one final chance if this happens to get stacked. We will see...

[wjs3]

We'll see about that.

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/769153849324085248

you dont trust shear forecasts, lol..they have been so accurate this week

No kidding. The only thing I'd note is that earlier model progs came from the open Atlantic, with no real upper air obs. Now the G-IV data is in AND the system is starting to approach a part of the world where we have good, regular upper air obs. That should help.