ATL: HERMINE - Models

[Kingarabian]

GFS 12Z hour 114:



GFS 12Z hou4 120:

[gatorcane]

GFS is moving this NNW just offshore of Palm Beach...and gradually organizing:

[gatorcane]

GFS has a MUCH weaker SE US ridge

[jason1912]

Could Gaston threaten Bermuda? seems to be treading west

[Bocadude85]

GFS has a MUCH weaker SE US ridge
[img[/img]

Thats because hurricane Gaston is so much further southwest

[gatorcane]

The GFS scrapes the Florida east coast on a recurve this run never making landfall it seems though keeps it pretty weak. Amazing...

[Kingarabian]

GFS 12Z Hour 144:

[centuryv58]

GFS has a MUCH weaker SE US ridge
[img[/img]

Thats because hurricane Gaston is so much further southwest

The GFS was doing this in earlier runs, not sure why though.

[Kingarabian]

GFS has a MUCH weaker SE US ridge
[img[/img]

Thats because hurricane Gaston is so much further southwest

Yeah. Looks like it creates a weakness for 99l.

[ronyan]

The GFS is likely incorrect here. The ECMWF will probably come in showing a consistent setup from it's previous runs yesterday.

[KWT]

GFS has a MUCH weaker SE US ridge

Yes it is weaker, but even so there is an upper high there and there is really no logic in why the system is launching NNW all of the sudden like it does on the GFS. Frankly looks like another garbage run, maybe aided by taking Gaston much further west than any other model run has done thus far.

Also, it is well known that the GFS has a terrible flaw for under-estimating ridges once past 72hrs, got a gut feeling it is once again suffering from that flaw.

[CrazyC83]

3 out of 4 GFS ensembles also want to turn it near or just east of the Florida coast as well. I don't know what weakness it is sensing, unless they think the ridge will build into the Gulf and basically stall it out...

For now, I'm on team Euro.

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/768483197214523393

[drezee]

Either the GFS is about to score a "Sandy" like Euro coup or they need to look at the physics again...

[Bocadude85]

3 out of 4 GFS ensembles also want to turn it near or just east of the Florida coast as well. I don't know what weakness it is sensing, unless they think the ridge will build into the Gulf and basically stall it out...

For now, I'm on team Euro.

Well Gaston is a good 500-600 SW of the 6Z run.

[gatorcane]

Either the GFS is about to score a "Sandy" like Euro coup or they need to look at the physics again...

While I don't think the GFS has the environment correct, note the usually overbullish CMC is weak too. Note both CMC and GFS showed a weak Earl into Belize to about this far out.

[Kingarabian]

GFS 12Z hour 168:


Potential E/SE threat. Basically stalling 99L out to the NE of Floride now.

[Kingarabian]

GFS 12Z Hour 192:



Slowly moving east and beginning to deepen.

[ROCK]

I always put money on the EURO when it comes to mid range set ups. the 0Z was quite telling and the 12Z later should help with some clarity....big Rita type storm rolling over the LC...nice

[CrazyC83]

Looking at the upper level maps, I see what the GFS thinks - it senses a weak extension of the ridge will build westward into the Gulf, which would force 99L/Hermine to stall out near Florida. Not that I buy it (and believe it would be stronger anyway) but at least it is a bit sensible.