ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[deltadog03]

It looks way better right now than it did at any time yesterday. Wind shear is still strong, but the low level vorticity max appears healthy. As long as convection can continue to fire, there remains a legitimate chance of tropical cyclogenesis if the shear lessens.

Agreed. And later today and over next few days the forecasted shear should be very low

[TropicalSailor]

[OntarioEggplant]

This storm is crazy. Now it's looking the best it has in almost 2 days after so many people and the models nearly gave up on it. The DMAX tonight may be essential for 99L to get going.

[Michele B]

This thing has outlasted everyone. I'm on board with it creeping into the GOM and building. There's no way this story ends north of Cuba after all this. The question is what do we get when it builds and where.

Good question, Sailor!

We ALL know it never ends well when a storm - or potential storm - gets into the Gulf. VERY warm water, nowhere to go but inland, and apparently conditions are about to become much more favorable for development.

NOW it gets interesting!

BTW - THIS IS all I was trying to say yesterday. Sorry for upsetting some people. I wasn't trying to say I'm "sick of this hype over nothing," just that we seemed to be a little too eager to find something, when nothing had emerged yet. From all prognostications, It WILL.

[AdamFirst]

The models were consistent of Friday and beyond would be the time this system really took off. It approached the brink of degeneration yesterday, but it is toughening it out and it's building back up. Who knows if this convection is merely pulsing, but still...the grass is suddenly looking much greener.

A lot of people in this thread wrote it off yesterday...because of how it looked or other factors...but we've woken up this morning to something quite interesting.

[SouthFLTropics]

The only circulation I see looks like it is up around 23.0N and 74.0W. It looks naked and exposed and heading off to the WNW.

[Extratropical94]

I think we need to be careful about referring to 99L as Hermine. If this storm does spin up, it may very well be after the storm coming off of Africa, that models are predicting spins up. 99L could in fact turn out to be Ian.

Well that would fit the tradition of remarkable or intense "I" storms.

[SouthDadeFish]

To my understanding, the next recon flight will be the NOAA P-3 scheduled to depart at 18Z from Tampa.

[SoupBone]

The only circulation I see looks like it is up around 23.0N and 74.0W. It looks naked and exposed and heading off to the WNW.

It's it possibly hidden under the convection?

[OntarioEggplant]

The only circulation I see looks like it is up around 23.0N and 74.0W. It looks naked and exposed and heading off to the WNW.

Do you not see all of the thunderstorms building on the south and east sides of it? Conditions are improving, and it's getting its act together.

[TropicalSailor]

To my understanding, the next recon flight will be the NOAA P-3 scheduled to depart at 18Z from Tampa.

I think the question is surrounding this NOAA flight showing on tropical tidbits that looks like it took off from Tampa and then turned around? The position was last recorded at 13:04 so they must have cancelled the mission after they took off.

[SouthDadeFish]

To my understanding, the next recon flight will be the NOAA P-3 scheduled to depart at 18Z from Tampa.

I think the question is surrounding this NOAA flight showing on tropical tidbits that looks like it took off from Tampa and then turned around? The position was last recorded at 13:04 so they must have cancelled the mission after they took off.

That, to me, looks like a glitch with the plotting software. If you look at the flight level pressure, they were on their way back home after flying for several hours. I believe that was the flight that took off at 06Z.

[Blow_Hard]

I looked on the HPC site and the QPF for pretty much the entire N GOM coastline is at least 3.5" thru next Friday. Apparently this is going to be a decent rain make for a lot of folks.

[RL3AO]

GFS still seems to keep it sheared with westerly flow aloft due to the upper low that it correctly predicted compared to the Euro. It's the small things like the cutoff low near the east coast and the upper level anti-cyclone getting pushed into the N Caribbean where the GFS has beat the Euro so far.

[tolakram]

Pretty big change in the latest shear analysis.



source: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

[HurriGuy]

http://en-us.topographic-map.com/places/Hispaniola-4131532/

Just a reminder there is a big difference between the Cuban mountains and the ones on Hispaniola.

[JaxGator]

Pretty big change in the latest shear analysis.

[img ]http://i.imgur.com/zUu0NCc.gif[/img]

Whoa! I guess besides what the GFS showed before (per RL3AO), that's a big change.

[SoupBone]

http://en-us.topographic-map.com/places/Hispaniola-4131532/

Just a reminder there is a big difference between the Cuban mountains and the ones on Hispaniola.

There's still very high mountainous terrain on the eastern side of Cuba. It's not to be dismissed.

[WeatherEmperor]

Pretty big change in the latest shear analysis.



source: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

Mark, what exactly does this shear map mean? Does it mean conditions will be more favorable than what the GFS showed?

[HurriGuy]

That is a massive change in the sheer map