ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[centuryv58]

Euro and GFS coming into agreement on this thing heading out to see after hitting Cuba.

No they are not.

[ConvergenceZone]

Euro and GFS coming into agreement on this thing heading out to see after hitting Cuba.

Additional Westward shifts are still very possible

[TimeZone]

Euro and GFS coming into agreement on this thing heading out to see after hitting Cuba.

No they are not.

You're right I apologize. They have it taking a sharp right turn out to sea following it's exit of the Bahamas.

[Alyono]

The most likely path remains a miss of the United States, but it could be close enough to bring tropical storm conditions.

[JPmia]

I do believe the models are generally honing in on a central Bahamas path, but I wonder about the land interaction with Cuba. There really isn't much room for error considering how close the central Bahamas are to Florida... could this thing could pull a reverse Irene-99'/Charley-04' into Florida? Do the models have the ability to include possible land interaction? For example, we've seen plenty of storms do some weird maneuvers when they hit those islands especially Hispainola. It seems Matthew will go over some of the tallest mountains in Cuba. Any thoughts on this?

[ConvergenceZone]

The most likely path remains a miss of the United States, but it could be close enough to bring tropical storm conditions.

I agree that's it's highly likely to go out to sea, but I still give it a slim chance to hit the US East Coast due to how close the GFS is to the coast

[Ken711]

The most likely path remains a miss of the United States, but it could be close enough to bring tropical storm conditions.

I agree that's it's highly likely to go out to sea, but I still give it a slim chance to hit the US East Coast due to how close the GFS is to the coast

I agree.

[SouthFloridian92]

It's too bad he's going to the east of us. Every time there is a good hurricane, it avoids us. All of the crappy storms are drawn to us.

[Ken711]

The most likely path remains a miss of the United States, but it could be close enough to bring tropical storm conditions.

I agree that's it's highly likely to go out to sea, but I still give it a slim chance to hit the US East Coast due to how close the GFS is to the coast

I somewhat agree, but I think it's still 50-50 at this point.

[Steve]

It's too bad he's going to the east of us. Every time there is a good hurricane, it avoids us. All of the crappy storms are drawn to us.

Haha. Too many friends there to agree, but you'll get it someday and probably wish it was a crappy one.

[CDO62]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/781605198053642241


"Ensembles can have too much/little spread. W/ complex pattern, GEFS may exhibit deficient Matthew trk sprd vs. EPS."

[TimeZone]

It's too bad he's going to the east of us. Every time there is a good hurricane, it avoids us. All of the crappy storms are drawn to us.

How do you think I feel, living in Nova Scotia? Plus this thing could potentially be a major, unless Cuba really messes it up.

[meriland23]

honestly, I'm not sure it's going to miss us. While the models shifted eastward, they are shifting westward again

[MetroMike]

Just 10 days ago the GFS was consistant in hitting the West Coast of Florida in the Gulf, fairly strong as well.

[toad strangler]

It's too bad he's going to the east of us. Every time there is a good hurricane, it avoids us. All of the crappy storms are drawn to us.

LOL

[gatorcane]

HWRF shifts west again and has near landfall in Eastern Jamaica at 78 hours.

[fci]

It's too bad he's going to the east of us. Every time there is a good hurricane, it avoids us. All of the crappy storms are drawn to us.

Conspicuously ignoring making a comment for fear of an S2K suspension at a time that I would sorely miss access

[centuryv58]

It's too bad he's going to the east of us. Every time there is a good hurricane, it avoids us. All of the crappy storms are drawn to us.

Conspicuously ignoring making a comment for fear of an S2K suspension at a time that I would sorely miss access

I second your thoughts!

[SunnyThoughts]

HWRF shifts west again and has near landfall in Eastern Jamaica at 78 hours.

Watching this also. Looks to be moving north now at hour 84, but at long 76.5

[Ntxw]

Lets watch the language guys. Keep the discussion moving along.

Thanks,