ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

live visible

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-75&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=black

[SEASON_CANCELED]

looks like its right on time according to earlier models...Expect a name in the 24 hours.

[bamajammer4eva]

Is there a link to Bahamas radar?? Never heard or seen of one myself but I cant imagine a country especially in a storm prone area not having it.

[psyclone]

If something is getting started that should be reflected in the NHC's update...after all they only have 48 hour development probs @ 20%.

[Aric Dunn]

hwrf takes 48 hours to barely get past Andros island..that very slow and a lot of time for this to get going.

[hohnywx]

If something is getting started that should be reflected in the NHC's update...after all they only have 48 hour development probs @ 20%.

Well the next outlook is out in 55 mins, so we will know how they feel shortly.

[gboudx]

Is there a link to Bahamas radar?? Never heard or seen of one myself but I cant imagine a country especially in a storm prone area not having it.

Try this one:

http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite ... amas-vis-1

99L is too far to be picked up by it currently.

[drewschmaltz]

That large broad spin behind but catching up to 99L. Is that what teared apart Gaston? What is that called and how is it going to affect 99L?

I know this link is time sensitive, but between 50 and 60 here: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

[gatorcane]

Wow this is looking much better all of the sudden and not moving much, maybe slowly wnw

[GlennOBX]

Long range, is this expected to hit somewhere between the bend in FL and the TX coast, and then just be a rainmaker for the southeast beyond that, or is it expected to cross FL, back into the Atlantic? I'm assuming the first option is the most likely. I could be wrong.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Long range, is this expected to hit somewhere between the bend in FL and the TX coast, and then just be a rainmaker for the southeast beyond that, or is it expected to cross FL, back into the Atlantic? I'm assuming the first option is the most likely. I could be wrong.

Once the storm forms the models will look way different but the general direction wont change, my opinion is models sensing last few days a real ride up the florida coast maybe 100 miles offshore into the panhandle. Not an expert, just my gut.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[jasons2k]

S Fla radio guy just told the listeners that those In SE Florida "have dodged another bullet."
I'm concerned about those in the Gulf who may not be so fortunate.

Yeah Mason Dixon said the same thing on Q105.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

S Fla radio guy just told the listeners that those In SE Florida "have dodged another bullet."
I'm concerned about those in the Gulf who may not be so fortunate.

Yeah Mason Dixon said the same thing on Q105.

How arrogant of them. The models don't say this at all, just one shifted it through the FL Straights.

[NDG]

Wind direction reported by wx stations over eastern Cuba, Oriente.



http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... csv&TB5=16

[jlauderdal]

If something is getting started that should be reflected in the NHC's update...after all they only have 48 hour development probs @ 20%.

30/70

[SouthDadeFish]

ASCAT found a broad surface center, primarily west of the convective blow up. Sustained convection could help tighten this circulation.

[chaser1]

Could well be making another run at it and I'm perceiving a possibly point of evolution close to 22N and 75.5. Either way though, it is plainly evident that it continues to be plauged by southwesterly shear. Two factors in its favor however is that the SST is even warmer than when coming into the Islands and that any COC that does attemt to form, will not be as directly hampered by tracking over land. There might continue to be a minimal factor of slightly hampered surface inflow as the mountains of E. Cuba continue to cut off a bit of the low level convergence from the south. I believe that very warm SST's will contribut toward 99L to go through yet another sustained bursting phase of convection. More importantly there seems to be a small cutoff just to it's north being sqeezed westward. Near term upper level winds could veer a bit more southerly in response and thus aid sustained convection to build further west and over any new LLC that might attempt to form but with a much slower forward motion. Honestly, looking at the upper flow itself, I just dont see any clear inhibiting factor strong enough to withstand 99L from potentially developing its own upper anticyclone. Thus, minus the particular issues that 99L had entering the islands which included vertical shear, a fast moving LLC outrunning the MLC, dry air, followed by land interaction there really is little reason for slow organization to not begin to commence. Depending on how the upper air flow evoles, perhaps in part based upon how fast, deep and sustained new convection occurs over any new COC attempting to develop... will ultimately dictate whether we see a T.D. or T.S. attempt to form between Florida and Cuba. Unfortunatly, its hard to have much reliance on the models to anticipate this to happen and their capacity to accuratly forecast genesis has been very flawed. Right now, I just would'nt rely whatsoever on any of them prior to having an actual developed tropical cyclone.

[gatorcane]

Latest frame with new storms firing closer to center

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[xcool22]

ASCAT found a broad surface center, primarily west of the convective blow up. Sustained convection could help tighten this circulation.

https://s22.postimg.org/a79xrfhi9/ASCAT.jpg

not bad all.

[tropicwatch]

Maybe an upgrade to TD sometime this afternoon.