ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[gatorcane]

The GFDL looks to have shifted slightly west from the 12Z

[jason1912]

all y'all need to focus on the fact models are trending west more and not the fact it's currently fishing in the models.

Pretty much. I'm thinking this trending west brings the Outer Banks, NC landfall in stronger possibility.

Also, I kind of have a feeling in my gut that this may be a huge problem for NEUS.

If 00z models with recon data show a landfall, it will be alarming

[GTStorm]

Curious to know...with most of the discussion being about the models trending west, what features seem to be the key players right now for this storm? Are we watching lows in the Gulf? Expecting a digging trough? High pressure ridge developing? All of the above? Thanks in advance to a pro who might know...

[Aric Dunn]

The GFDL looks to have shifted slightly west from the 12Z

A little ? thats a huge deal with angle of approach. that and it shifted couple hundred miles..


the model consensus has been shifting west pretty straight forward. seriously just speed it up a little its very clear ... that and the GFDL has NNW motion heading to florida.

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 6&title=14

[Blown Away]

00z...

00z... Nearly all guidance on W side of NHC track...

[jlauderdal]

Curious to know...with most of the discussion being about the models trending west, what features seem to be the key players right now for this storm? Are we watching lows in the Gulf? Expecting a digging trough? High pressure ridge developing? All of the above? Thanks in advance to a pro who might know...

please watch this video..it gives you everything you need to know about the setup

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=optFvZaFbaE

[Bocadude85]

18Z NOGAPS shifs west

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2016092918&fh=108&xpos=0&ypos=0

[jlauderdal]

18Z NOGAPS shirts west

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2016092918&fh=108&xpos=0&ypos=0

residents of jamaica will not be feeling very irie this weekend based on the trend

[Weatherboy1]

That model map definitely shows the westward creep over the last 12 hours or so. Still likely to miss South Florida but that's not definite by any means. Will be very interested to see the overnight model runs to see if the westward trend continues.

[Blown Away]

18Z NOGAPS shirts west

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2016092918&fh=108&xpos=0&ypos=0

residents of jamaica will not be feeling very irie this weekend based on the trend

The praying will start...

[ronjon]

Ok was starting to feel good about Matt staying well offshore of FL. Now starting to get that uneasy feeling things might be changing with the models. With GFDL into S Florida and UKMET aiming for S Florida one has to wonder if ridging will now be a little stronger or will the trough in the GOM take on a slightly negative tilt or be further west in 5 days.

[Blown Away]

00z Intensity...

[Nimbus]

Nogaps goes right over Andros island and the 18Z GFDL would be a nasty landfall in south Florida.
The big upper level low that is providing a strong jet up the east coast has gone stationary.
Kind of hoping it would dig and I will be real disappointed if it retrogrades west pulling the Bermuda high with it.

[toad strangler]

00z Intensity...

If there is one thing I never look at for analysis it would be the intensity plot

[meriland23]

NHC in a few hours tied in with the 00z models after recon checks it out will make for a more structural analysis. All that being said, the fact almost all of the models are independently configuring the same general idea (westward trend) is more worrisome than all of them going in various, independent directions

[ronjon]

That intensity plot is mixed up because of two landfalls...JAM and Cuba

[Bocadude85]

18Z NOGAPS shirts west

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2016092918&fh=108&xpos=0&ypos=0

residents of jamaica will not be feeling very irie this weekend based on the trend

Based on the models I am thinking we may get a couple squalls here in S. Fla. I'm about a 1 mile from the ocean so may see some breezy conditions also.

[gatorcane]

00Z:

[wxmann_91]

http://i65.tinypic.com/9rr3gw.jpg
00z...
http://i64.tinypic.com/adp9w9.jpg
00z... Nearly all guidance on W side of NHC track...

To be fair, two of the more reliable models that hold more weight, the Euro and UKMET, are east.

[SouthFLTropics]

http://i65.tinypic.com/9rr3gw.jpg
00z...
http://i64.tinypic.com/adp9w9.jpg
00z... Nearly all guidance on W side of NHC track...

To be fair, two of the more reliable models that hold more weight, the Euro and UKMET, are east.

UKMET final heading has it paralleling the Cuban coast moving WNW.